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Felix: Sucessful Double?

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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 12:39 am

SRR will have a bit of a question mark about how things might progress/regress for atypical (medical) conditions, so I would not put all fo the eggs in one basket or the other at this point. The indoor 60 indicates that she is working on things that give her speed, which she needs in the 200, especially with the duo of VCB and Jeter, who might make additional large gains this year.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby mump boy » Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:11 am

Why does everyone think SAnya is back ??

She dominated indoors over a mediocre field in a time that was far from spectacular and was then below par in the relay. She'll have to perform a whole lot better in the summer if she wants to claim the OG gold. I'm not saying she can't do it but with her track record i would put my money on Allyson (and a number of others) before her at the moment
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby Gabriella » Wed Mar 28, 2012 3:57 am

gh wrote:I'm still trying to figure out what Felix ever did to draw such a never-ending cascade of scorn. She's polite, friendly, deferential to her rivals, never a bad word.

And she's brave enough to take on difficult tasks. I just don't get it.


I think a lot of it might be the Jamaica vs USA mentality. For me, I do respect the fact that she takes on these difficult takes. She is a talented athlete and I absolutely respect her track record. However, I find her saccharine sweet persona completely insincere. She says the right things, gives the obligatory smile etc. but it just comes across as fake. She's like a robot from Stepford Wives.

[unacceptable commentary removed by mods]

On the double question again, I used to think she should do the 400m and that's where her ability lies, but now I think she'd do better to focus on the 200m. One reserves the right to change ones mind :D She wants that title more than any other so has the hunger; there are less top women in that event capable of beating her; she has the experience in that event in Olympic years. If she were to solely focus on the 400m and had done in 2011 maybe I'd stick with the 400, but as she has been flirting with both for too long, stick with the 200. She just needs to get back to fast 100s and 200s again, if she wants that gold over the half lap. Forget the strength and 400 training, get back to speed work.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby mal » Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:12 am

lonewolf wrote:
gh wrote:I'm still trying to figure out what Felix ever did to draw such a never-ending cascade of scorn. She's polite, friendly, deferential to her rivals, never a bad word.

And she's brave enough to take on difficult tasks. I just don't get it.


I'm with gh on this. Whats with all the dire predictions? She is one of the most personable world class athletes out there; even if she does not know you. If she wants to try the double that is her perogitive. No guts, no glory.


She's a great runner, and apparently a great person.
But
The double is unlikely success, but makes for a pre-packaged excuse.

The real purpose is to win, and I think she lowers her chances. If she really showed her nerve, she'd pick one and let the chips fall.

She will not, and can not win both, and medaling in both is not enough for an athlete of her caliber.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby jazzcyclist » Wed Mar 28, 2012 6:16 am

fasttrack85 wrote:TO Allyson Felix if you ever visit TFN and read this:

My suggestion would be put everything you have Allyson into the 200. This is the race that brought you to the attention of the world. This is the race VCB snubbed from you twice. To win the 200 will be sweeter than winning the 400 anyway because you want to be able to say you beat VCB at the olympics in what may be her swan song and you won't be able to do it again. Focus on maintain that top end speed while not sacrificing your final 50 meter stalk in the 200. VCB has run the times she has run mainly because she knows when she shows up she will have to deal with you. The name Allyson Felix strikes fear in the heart of any woman who has to run against you in a 200. They are all praying to god that you do the double because a healthy in shape fresh Felix kneeling at the start line of a 200 is the nightmare of a few women who have their eyes on 200 meter gold.

I couldn't have said it better myself. If Sanya and Veronica both bring their "A" games to London, Allyson will have virtually no chance at beating Sanya but will still have at least a 50% chance at beating Veronica, since she will probably be doubling. I also suspect that there would be no comparison in the personal satisfaction that Allyson would get in killing the ghosts of Athens and Beijing by preventing Veronica's three-peat to denying Sanya her first individual Olympic gold.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby nunusguy » Wed Mar 28, 2012 6:24 am

Felix's turnover in the 400 is about 4.2 steps per second. Optimally, her turnover in the 200 would be about 4.6 to 4.7 steps per second. But boosting that cadence during the middle of a meet is difficult, Mann said. If the order of events were reversed, it would be much easier. "All the bad things occur if you run the 400 first," he said.

On this point, Kersee disagrees with Mann: "The 200 takes much more out of you physically ,speed-wise. You tighten up more; you exert more energy in terms of ballistic speed."
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142 ... ons_sports
I don't think so ?
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 6:40 am

Indoor 400 season:

1 SRR was significantly better than any- and everyone else
2 Few others showed anything real promising with respect to top-level competition
3 O showed better form in running the relay than in the open 400, and it seemed to be indicative to a mental shift that is part of a shift that may make her formidable again come outdoors
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby mump boy » Wed Mar 28, 2012 7:42 am

jazzcyclist wrote:
fasttrack85 wrote:TO Allyson Felix if you ever visit TFN and read this:

My suggestion would be put everything you have Allyson into the 200. This is the race that brought you to the attention of the world. This is the race VCB snubbed from you twice. To win the 200 will be sweeter than winning the 400 anyway because you want to be able to say you beat VCB at the olympics in what may be her swan song and you won't be able to do it again. Focus on maintain that top end speed while not sacrificing your final 50 meter stalk in the 200. VCB has run the times she has run mainly because she knows when she shows up she will have to deal with you. The name Allyson Felix strikes fear in the heart of any woman who has to run against you in a 200. They are all praying to god that you do the double because a healthy in shape fresh Felix kneeling at the start line of a 200 is the nightmare of a few women who have their eyes on 200 meter gold.

I couldn't have said it better myself. If Sanya and Veronica both bring their "A" games to London, Allyson will have virtually no chance at beating Sanya but will still have at least a 50% chance at beating Veronica, since she will probably be doubling. I also suspect that there would be no comparison in the personal satisfaction that Allyson would get in killing the ghosts of Athens and Beijing by preventing Veronica's three-peat to denying Sanya her first individual Olympic gold.


But what is Sanya's championship A game ?? We've only ever seen it once and there is no real indication that we're ever going to see it again

I'm afraid we may only ever see Sanya's A game at one off Grand Prix meets :(
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby lonewolf » Wed Mar 28, 2012 8:02 am

I don't know if many/any elite athletes visit this forum but I do wonder whether they are amused or irritated by the unsolicited coaching/training/competition advice. I am certain the athletes and their coaches are well aware of the competition and the pros and cons of concentrating on one (and which) event vs. doubling.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby ATK » Wed Mar 28, 2012 8:30 am

mump boy wrote:Why does everyone think SAnya is back ??

She dominated indoors over a mediocre field in a time that was far from spectacular and was then below par in the relay. She'll have to perform a whole lot better in the summer if she wants to claim the OG gold. I'm not saying she can't do it but with her track record i would put my money on Allyson (and a number of others) before her at the moment


I'm almost certain that Sanya said that she trained like she normally would with no intent to peak indoors. If that is the case, i don't see how she was mediocre. Plus she hasn't run indoors in what 6 years?

It would be amazing to see her attempt the double again, but there's no way she would be capable of coming back from the 400 and win the 200m. Jeter is only showing signs of improvement in the 200, and it looks the same for VCB. In the 400 there are to many women who are capable of walking away from Felix if they have a good, or even just semi good run. If she just focuses on the 200, I say at least bronze is 100% secure.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby tandfman » Wed Mar 28, 2012 10:56 am

lonewolf wrote:I don't know if many/any elite athletes visit this forum but I do wonder whether they are amused or irritated by the unsolicited coaching/training/competition advice.

If they can't stand the heat, they should stay out of the kitchen.

Seriously, the advice offered on this forum is tame compared to what is offered elsewhere on the web. Any elite athlete who is prone to being at all irritated or distracted by the cyber-noise has the easy option of not visiting sites where they know they will likely be subjected to that sort of thing. I suspect that most of those who do not find this stuff amusing do exactly that--they avoid this forum and others like the plague.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby DJG » Wed Mar 28, 2012 11:32 am

At this stage of guessing what Felix should do in London:

I would have to say ... 200 at London (with the two relays)
and then go for the 400 at the Worlds in Mockba in 2013. (if London 200 Gold is in the bank).

As for SRR being in top form for the 400...I believe Clyde Hart is still her coach.
He will have her at the best she is capable of at the right time. (That money is in the bank)

Camp Felix will most likely make their decision in mid-May, Acension Thursday, the 17th.
Just a guess, no inside info, no repeated-cyber-rumor, just my guess.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby gh » Wed Mar 28, 2012 11:39 am

Unfortunately, no matter what Coach Hart does, it's Coach Behçet who makes all the final calls on what SRR can and can't do.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby guru » Wed Mar 28, 2012 12:08 pm

mump boy wrote:
I'm afraid we may only ever see Sanya's A game at one off Grand Prix meets :(



Yes, well she seemed to handle three rounds of the open 400 in two days just fine in Istanbul, culminating in another victory under her pre-2012 PR.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby DJG » Wed Mar 28, 2012 1:19 pm

gh wrote:Unfortunately, no matter what Coach Hart does, it's Coach Behçet who makes all the final calls on what SRR can and can't do.


GH, Absolutely. My qualifying with "the best she is capable of" was written with her health in mind. My confidence in Coach Hart is shared with the good doctors treating SRR's condition.
Sonya has great heart and Hart and will give it her best. Of that I have no doubts.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby fasttrack85 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:05 pm

ATK wrote:
mump boy wrote:Why does everyone think SAnya is back ??

She dominated indoors over a mediocre field in a time that was far from spectacular and was then below par in the relay. She'll have to perform a whole lot better in the summer if she wants to claim the OG gold. I'm not saying she can't do it but with her track record i would put my money on Allyson (and a number of others) before her at the moment


I'm almost certain that Sanya said that she trained like she normally would with no intent to peak indoors. If that is the case, i don't see how she was mediocre. Plus she hasn't run indoors in what 6 years?

It would be amazing to see her attempt the double again, but there's no way she would be capable of coming back from the 400 and win the 200m. Jeter is only showing signs of improvement in the 200, and it looks the same for VCB. In the 400 there are to many women who are capable of walking away from Felix if they have a good, or even just semi good run. If she just focuses on the 200, I say at least bronze is 100% secure.



If she focuses on only the 200 at least silver is secure and only a top form VCB can beat her. Jeter is only a threat to Felix if she puts too much into effort into doubling and trains however she did in 2011. Jeter Personal best is still only 22.20 a number Allyson could do on her worst day in a good year. Jeter would have alot of improving to do to compete with either the VCB of 08 or the Felix of 07-09.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby ATK » Wed Mar 28, 2012 2:25 pm

fasttrack85 wrote:
ATK wrote:
mump boy wrote:Why does everyone think SAnya is back ??

She dominated indoors over a mediocre field in a time that was far from spectacular and was then below par in the relay. She'll have to perform a whole lot better in the summer if she wants to claim the OG gold. I'm not saying she can't do it but with her track record i would put my money on Allyson (and a number of others) before her at the moment


I'm almost certain that Sanya said that she trained like she normally would with no intent to peak indoors. If that is the case, i don't see how she was mediocre. Plus she hasn't run indoors in what 6 years?

It would be amazing to see her attempt the double again, but there's no way she would be capable of coming back from the 400 and win the 200m. Jeter is only showing signs of improvement in the 200, and it looks the same for VCB. In the 400 there are to many women who are capable of walking away from Felix if they have a good, or even just semi good run. If she just focuses on the 200, I say at least bronze is 100% secure.



If she focuses on only the 200 at least silver is secure and only a top form VCB can beat her. Jeter is only a threat to Felix if she puts too much into effort into doubling and trains however she did in 2011. Jeter Personal best is still only 22.20 a number Allyson could do on her worst day in a good year. Jeter would have alot of improving to do to compete with either the VCB of 08 or the Felix of 07-09.

Unfortunately this isn't 07-09. Jeter is getting more and more consistent over the longer distance. Also considering the very likely scenario of her winning the 100m, and this being her secondary event, Jeter would be able to go into the 200 way more relaxed. Compared to Felix, who will be going into the 200, no matter what, with tons of pressure considering her past Olympic outcomes and it being her primary event.
I wont be a tad bit surprised to see Jeter pull off double gold(plus relay).
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Mar 28, 2012 4:45 pm

I agree with ATK. We are not sure what sort of progress Jeter is going to make but last year it went from 'oh, she is running an over-distance race to help her 100 and she did OK at it' to winning the season finale and ranking at a level almost no one would have thought just a few months earlier.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby mump boy » Wed Mar 28, 2012 5:06 pm

guru wrote:
mump boy wrote:
I'm afraid we may only ever see Sanya's A game at one off Grand Prix meets :(



Yes, well she seemed to handle three rounds of the open 400 in two days just fine in Istanbul, culminating in another victory under her pre-2012 PR.


Seeing as she hasn't run indoors for 6 years and her previous PR was set 8 years ago that is not really surprising. She may have handled 3 rounds (against very weak field ok) but she was sub par in the relay (even taking into account poor tactical choices)

Are we really saying that a Sanya Richards back to her best and ready to win the Olympic Games Gold Medal is only capable of 50.70 indoors ?? I'm not saying it won't happen, just that going on her past record she is going to show a lot more form than that before i'm ready to hang any medal round her neck, never mind the gold.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby mump boy » Wed Mar 28, 2012 5:08 pm

I also think Jeter is a big threat, even to VCB, in the 200m
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby Gabriella » Thu Mar 29, 2012 1:39 am

Jeter will be 33 at the end of this year so I don't think we'll see a big improvement over 200m. In think it's going to be difficult for her to break 22 secs, which is what she'll need to do to win gold in London. But if she can get as close to 22 secs then she is a medal contender again. However, missing out on Beijing, and at this age, she will be putting herself under a lot of pressure as this will probably be her last chance of an Olympic medal (famous last words...people said that about Ottey in 92!) so she needs to be extra careful not to push herself too hard.

On SRR, I agree with Mump. I wasn't hugely impressed by her indoor running. The good thing was that she could run a couple of races in one day. She also looked to have a good acceleration as well. But time-wise it was nothing to write home about. She's now 27 and we're in 2012 and 'all' she has to show outdoors for her enormous talent is 1 World title, 1 Olympic bronze & 1 World bronze. I've posted before that elite women quarter milers tend to have around a 4 year period when at their very best. I feel SRR has had this and we wont see her at her best again. On paper she doesn't need to be at her best to win gold; 49.2 to 49.5 should do the trick, but in practice, if she's not head and shoulders above her opposition she tends to mess it up. She is going to put herself under a lot of pressure this year to win Olympic gold and I feel she will crumble and not achieve what she should.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby ATK » Thu Mar 29, 2012 7:33 am

Gabriella wrote:Jeter will be 33 at the end of this year so I don't think we'll see a big improvement over 200m. In think it's going to be difficult for her to break 22 secs, which is what she'll need to do to win gold in London. But if she can get as close to 22 secs then she is a medal contender again. However, missing out on Beijing, and at this age, she will be putting herself under a lot of pressure as this will probably be her last chance of an Olympic medal (famous last words...people said that about Ottey in 92!) so she needs to be extra careful not to push herself too hard. s it up. She is going to put herself under a lot of pressure this year to win Olympic gold and I feel she will crumble and not achieve what she should.

Age is only a number. Same time last year she would be 32 at the end of the year. And 31 the year before, oh and 30 durring that 2009 season.....yea

I do agree with the pressure aspect though, but like I said before, the 200 is her secondary event, so it would apply more to the 100m.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby jazzcyclist » Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:13 am

Don't assume that Jeter, Felix and Campbell have already locked up the medals. There are always some up and comers to watch out for.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby t_monk » Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:28 am

Gabriella wrote:Jeter will be 33 at the end of this year so I don't think we'll see a big improvement over 200m. In think it's going to be difficult for her to break 22 secs, which is what she'll need to do to win gold in London. But if she can get as close to 22 secs then she is a medal contender again. However, missing out on Beijing, and at this age, she will be putting herself under a lot of pressure as this will probably be her last chance of an Olympic medal (famous last words...people said that about Ottey in 92!) so she needs to be extra careful not to push herself too hard.

On SRR, I agree with Mump. I wasn't hugely impressed by her indoor running. The good thing was that she could run a couple of races in one day. She also looked to have a good acceleration as well. But time-wise it was nothing to write home about. She's now 27 and we're in 2012 and 'all' she has to show outdoors for her enormous talent is 1 World title, 1 Olympic bronze & 1 World bronze. I've posted before that elite women quarter milers tend to have around a 4 year period when at their very best. I feel SRR has had this and we wont see her at her best again. On paper she doesn't need to be at her best to win gold; 49.2 to 49.5 should do the trick, but in practice, if she's not head and shoulders above her opposition she tends to mess it up. She is going to put herself under a lot of pressure this year to win Olympic gold and I feel she will crumble and not achieve what she should.


I agree with this. With Jeter especially, to get to sub-22 she will need to do serious work on her curve and transition. That is not something you just learn just by waking up, it's something you learn after years of practice. Also, as admirably as Jeter performed last year the winning time from last year was not that great and same can be said about the other places that made up the top 3. If the likes of Felix, Lee, Stewart. Myers or even Simpson were there and/or at their best last year Jeter would have had an issue making top 5.

SRR as impressive as she is in general does not look impenetrable in the 400m. She did a great job indoors but she didn't have the level of competition that the outdoor season will bring. Olympics should bring a higher level of sprinting and if Felix goes for the double you can be sure that after getting so close in 2011 that she will be in better shape than 2011 I think. With that being said I would think that Felix will be capable of 49.low/sub-49.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby 26mi235 » Thu Mar 29, 2012 8:52 am

SRR's journey is significantly different than other top 400 runners so fitting her into that mold, especially as far as timing goes is more problematic than most. Similarly, Jeter should be compared with those athletes that did not take up full time, hard training until much later. One reason that athletes do not do well at 33 is because they have had their day, their bodies are worn out, and they find it time to move on. Jeter does not have that timing; look instead to people who started later (Ottey is the outlier and not particularly a good model because she was about world-class in college rather than someone that had not gotten their training and timing right).
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby preston » Thu Mar 29, 2012 10:42 am

Oh goody! Another Felix thread. Why the only think it could compare to is another VCB thread. Maybe we can start a thread where we compare the two - has that ever happened?

Felix' only problem is that she is sandwiched between the VCB lovers/defenders and the SRR lovers/defenders. I personally like her and I think she is great for the sport.

I disagree that we can't expect more improvement at 200m from Jeter. If there is one thing that is glaring it's that Jeter is woefully underperforming her 200m compared to her 100m; she should be well inside 22 seconds already so a sub-21.8 time would NOT shock me in the slightest - I actually expect it. And, some have to dispense with this notion that near all ability is congenital - athletes can learn how to run a turn, just as they can learn how to accelerate, wiggle their ears, etc. When you see surprises in an Olympic year more often than not is nothing more than an athlete finally "getting it" and realizing their potential (see: Mills, Billy). Jeter, has more upside in the 200m than does VCB.

As it concerns Jeter's age; that's a red-herring for athletic performance that doesn't stand up to scrutiny. History has shown MANY post-30+ men and women who were improving or maintaining (Ottey, Christie, Sturrup, Foster-Hylton, Patton, Devers, Collins). Age is a factor, certainly, but not as much of a disqualifier as is often thrown around by people who should not better.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby t_monk » Thu Mar 29, 2012 12:39 pm

preston wrote:I disagree that we can't expect more improvement at 200m from Jeter. If there is one thing that is glaring it's that Jeter is woefully underperforming her 200m compared to her 100m; she should be well inside 22 seconds already so a sub-21.8 time would NOT shock me in the slightest - I actually expect it. And, some have to dispense with this notion that near all ability is congenital - athletes can learn how to run a turn, just as they can learn how to accelerate, wiggle their ears, etc. When you see surprises in an Olympic year more often than not is nothing more than an athlete finally "getting it" and realizing their potential (see: Mills, Billy). Jeter, has more upside in the 200m than does VCB.


I don't think anyone is saying improvement from Jeter is not possible nor even likely at that, there is however a big difference between 22.2x and sub-22. As it pertains to the curve, It does take a lot of practice quite frankly and it is not something you just 'get'. Take Spearman, Blake and even Felix to some extent, they have yet to consistently master curve running while athletes such as VCB, Bolt, Lee and SAFP seem to just effortlessly execute the curve.

Jeter having the more upside than VCB to me might be true but that is because there is not much improvement you can do after getting to 21.74. The women before VCB are either questionable or just plain arguably the best ever.

Florence Griffith-Joyner
Marion Jones
Merlene Ottey
Marita Koch
Heike Drechsler
Grace Jackson
Gwen Torrence
Marlies Göhr

Jeter can be expected to improve greatly to probably sub-22 but VCB's 21.74 is an amazing time and she too can improve it is believed and even a marginal improvement would see her being one of the only woman four women to go 21.6x.

I think Allyson can get to 21.7-21.6 if she focuses on her speed and her first 50-100. I think the potential double would SERIOUSLY hamper that possibility though.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby preston » Thu Mar 29, 2012 12:55 pm

t_monk wrote:I don't think anyone is saying improvement from Jeter is not possible nor even likely at that, there is however a big difference between 22.2x and sub-22. As it pertains to the curve, It does take a lot of practice quite frankly and it is not something you just 'get'. Take Spearman, Blake and even Felix to some extent, they have yet to consistently master curve running while athletes such as VCB, Bolt, Lee and SAFP seem to just effortlessly execute the curve.

Jeter having the more upside than VCB to me might be true but that is because there is not much improvement you can do after getting to 21.74. The women before VCB are either questionable or just plain arguably the best ever.

Florence Griffith-Joyner
Marion Jones
Merlene Ottey
Marita Koch
Heike Drechsler
Grace Jackson
Gwen Torrence
Marlies Göhr

Jeter can be expected to improve greatly to probably sub-22 but VCB's 21.74 is an amazing time and she too can improve it is believed and even a marginal improvement would see her being one of the only woman four women to go 21.6x.

I think Allyson can get to 21.7-21.6 if she focuses on her speed and her first 50-100. I think the potential double would SERIOUSLY hamper that possibility though.

Not sure if you participated in this thread (I didn't have time to look) viewtopic.php?f=1&t=45991&p=743816&hilit=miller#p743816 but many of the women who made the greatest dips under 22 HAD NEVER RUN UNDER 22 BEFORE! Grace Jackson only ran under 22 once! Juliet Cutherbert...once. Inger Miller...once! Grace's acceleration would have been laughed at by both Lemaitre and Spearmon - and she was sub-11, iirc. My point is that many of these things that you feel are EVOLUTIONARY are actually REVOLUTIONARY. Similar...but one letter makes all the difference! PB's normally come in chunks, not in increments! Just ask Usain, Yohan, Christophe, MJ, etc. Jeter doesn't quite have the 100m, but this year if she puts it all together she can complete the 1/2 double. Yes, it's "get"-able.

I also think the issue of doubling is severely overrated. Felix failed the double because...well...ask guru and a few others. I personally think that with different prep she should be able to handle the double with sub-21.8/sub-49 performances.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby fasttrack85 » Thu Mar 29, 2012 4:18 pm

t_monk wrote:
preston wrote:I disagree that we can't expect more improvement at 200m from Jeter. If there is one thing that is glaring it's that Jeter is woefully underperforming her 200m compared to her 100m; she should be well inside 22 seconds already so a sub-21.8 time would NOT shock me in the slightest - I actually expect it. And, some have to dispense with this notion that near all ability is congenital - athletes can learn how to run a turn, just as they can learn how to accelerate, wiggle their ears, etc. When you see surprises in an Olympic year more often than not is nothing more than an athlete finally "getting it" and realizing their potential (see: Mills, Billy). Jeter, has more upside in the 200m than does VCB.


I don't think anyone is saying improvement from Jeter is not possible nor even likely at that, there is however a big difference between 22.2x and sub-22. As it pertains to the curve, It does take a lot of practice quite frankly and it is not something you just 'get'. Take Spearman, Blake and even Felix to some extent, they have yet to consistently master curve running while athletes such as VCB, Bolt, Lee and SAFP seem to just effortlessly execute the curve.

Jeter having the more upside than VCB to me might be true but that is because there is not much improvement you can do after getting to 21.74. The women before VCB are either questionable or just plain arguably the best ever.

Florence Griffith-Joyner
Marion Jones
Merlene Ottey
Marita Koch
Heike Drechsler
Grace Jackson
Gwen Torrence
Marlies Göhr

Jeter can be expected to improve greatly to probably sub-22 but VCB's 21.74 is an amazing time and she too can improve it is believed and even a marginal improvement would see her being one of the only woman four women to go 21.6x.

I think Allyson can get to 21.7-21.6 if she focuses on her speed and her first 50-100. I think the potential double would SERIOUSLY hamper that possibility though.



This is exactly how I feel about the double aspect( both running the actual race in London and training for it). She can possibly get a new pb in the 200 if she focuses more on speed than endurance. Training endurance is only going to end up with sub par 200 performances like in 2011.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby ATK » Thu Mar 29, 2012 5:03 pm

preston wrote:I also think the issue of doubling is severely overrated. Felix failed the double because...well...ask guru and a few others. I personally think that with different prep she should be able to handle the double with sub-21.8/sub-49 performances.

This is a bit unrealistic. After 6 rounds of 400m and 200m with no rest day, you really think Felix is capable of a 21.7?
What has she shown in the past 5 years to realistically indicate that?
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby Gabriella » Fri Mar 30, 2012 3:07 am

to ATK and preston; yes athletes can PB in their 30's and some big names have; Ottey did at 31, Kratochvilova did at 30 and Malchugina did at 34. I do believe Jeter can PB over 200m this year too, just not by the margin she needs to win in London.
The onlyh athlete to run a sub 22 secs PB in their 30's is Ottey. I'm not confident that Jeter will run a sub 22 sec PB at 32.

Age is significant, regardless of when an athlete started to 'train hard'. Can she improve enough to beat athletes in their late 20's with far significant PBs over that distance? VCB has run nearly half a second faster than Jeter over 200m! While VCB herself may not match her 21.74, she still had that PB 'buffer' and doesn't need to be at her absolute best to beat Jeter (as we saw in Korea, when Jeter was at her best)

The argument around upside is a red herring.

On SRR, she's still only 27, but she's been running fast times for 7 years now and had a couple of intense seasons churning out very fast times over 400m on the circuit. As it stands, I'm not convinced she will be in the form she needs to win in London, because as I said earlier, unless she's in fantastic form and knows she is much better than everyone else, she tends to fold and not run the race she should or can. With her Behcets disease and the pressure she will put herself under this year, I just feel she won't deliver. I really hope I'm wrong because she does deserve an Olympic gold though. I don't think she would be a factor in 4 years time.

It's interesting because neither Jeter, SRR nor Felix have achieved what they want at an Olympics. But while SRR has to face the issue of managing her training smartly and to do her best to ward off her Behcets; Felix just has the dilemma of what event. Is her desire for Olympic gold full stop, or for Olympic gold in her favourite event, the 200m? She's always stated she wants that 200m gold, but does she believe she will beat VCB? She was so close to gold in Daegu over 400m but knows this year the event will be tougher. I just feel she should go for the 200, go back to speed work, and hope VCB's desire for the 100m becomes the Jamaicans foucs.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby preston » Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:33 am

Gabs I agree with most of your points; however, Jeter seemed to only begin concentrating on running 200m after her big 10.6's in 2010. And, last year - her first year really focussing - she won a medal. I think that bodes well. Plus, if she's in 10.6 anything consistency next year then she will be better at 200m as well.

Again, I don't think age is the factor, speed is. The ability to just flat out run fast. We just can't deny that a sub-10.7 woman can't run well under 22. Also, in a thread referenced above, we have athletes like Grace Jackson, Inger Miller and Juliet Cuthbert who only ran under 22 once and when they did it averaged more than .2s reduction. That's why I say that Jeter running near to or better than the PB's of both VCB and AF is a distinct possibility. I may be in the minority but I think she wins both if she's in 10.6 shape.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby mump boy » Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:48 am

I would suggest (with no scientific basis) that training for 400m hasn't actually improved Allyson's 400m and has certainly harmed her 200m. While concentrating on 400m she has only improved by .1 !! obviously her increased training helped her with the rounds of the 400m but a .1 improvement hardly seems worth it.

If it was me i's concentrate 100% on the 200m and leave the 400m and double for another time
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby 26mi235 » Fri Mar 30, 2012 10:41 am

Not all tracks are created the same. If Daegu was as fast as Berlin, AF might have PRed by 0.5.
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Re: Felix: Sucessful Double?

Postby mump boy » Fri Mar 30, 2012 5:18 pm

26mi235 wrote:Not all tracks are created the same. If Daegu was as fast as Berlin, AF might have PRed by 0.5.


Tell that to Sally Mclellen
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