Felix: Sucessful Double?

[26mi235]

t_monk:

If she is back to being a 48.7 runner, then 49.9 is not particularly peaking. You are assuming that this is the 2010/2011 SRR rather than where the 48.70 SRR would be without being sidetracked. If so, this may be the early season of the 48.4 SRR. If so, and if AF has another 48.0r in her, then the relay is history as long as they do not botch a hand-off.

[ChuiTai]

Who and when was the last time any athlete, male or female, won either a national and/or world equivalent double of 400/200 (or vise versa) with less than 24 hours of recovery time between each event and its' related segments (h/s/f)?

[Gabriella]

I wasn't aware of SRR's 10.89w when I wrote my last post. I did mention on my previous one that she did have a good acceleration in Istanbul and I guess this 10.89w confirms that. It's an excellent performance and I agree with preston's point that maybe some are dismissing it. (I don't agree that the are both sub 10.90/sub 21.80/sub 48.50 mind you, and I don't believe both women have their best years ahead of them though)

The last time SRR ran a comparable time, her 10.97 PB from 2007, she also ran 22.31 and 49.27. In her 48.70 season and 48.83 season she ran 22.17 PB and 22.29 over 200m but no apparent 100's but she must have been fast. So, it must be safe to assume that on 10.89w form she is looking at a very good 400m time, and for her to be able to run 49.2 or faster she needs to be near 11 secs form. The only would be unless she has been focussing more on speedwork than usual, which could be the case as she looked fast in Istanbul over the first lap but 'only' ran high 50's. So, maybe her speed is spot on now but she needs to work more on her speed endurance?

Either way, I am much more impressed with 10.89w than her Istanbul win. It would be good to see her fully focus on 100/200 for a complete season with that aim, rather than the 200m by default as in 2007. Who knows, perhaps SRR true event should have been the 200m.

It will be interesting to see how this fast early season 100m time translates into 400m form at peak season. There's a long way to go till London. But, if she carries on and get's to 49.2 form or faster, she has to be a favourite for gold. If she's in mid 49 form I dont see her having the mental strength and grit to fight and get her race right when neck and neck against the other women of comparable form. Other women excel when their competitors are at a similar level whereas SRR seems to need that buffer to feel comfortable and run her correct race.

A general point; some women in the past have spread themselves too thinly over all 3 sprint events. The general rule is you cannot be the best at all three, although some women have of course been ranked top ten in all three in previous years. Both Felix and SRR need to be careful here and make the right event decision.

[preston]

It's an excellent performance and I agree with preston's point that maybe some are dismissing it. (I don't agree that the are both sub 10.90/sub 21.80/sub 48.50 mind you, and I don't believe both women have their best years ahead of them though)

...A general point; some women in the past have spread themselves too thinly over all 3 sprint events. The general rule is you cannot be the best at all three, although some women have of course been ranked top ten in all three in previous years. Both Felix and SRR need to be careful here and make the right event decision.

Gabs, I think you presented a more sober estimation of what I was trying to say: both of these women are capable, if they concentrated on a single event, of those times but it is unlikely that they could be equally good at all three at the same time.

[26mi235]

It appears that she his not focusing on speedwork and that this is off of general training, as were her indoor 50.x races. 10.89, even with wind, is very fast for anyone including Jamaicans who tend to be earlier due to location.

[NotSoOrdinary]

Im not against Felix, but you make it seem as if no one can beat her when in form at any given time. I mean a 31 year old Jeter beat her 3 times last year, before, during and after her double.

All 3 of those times were flukes, though.

Allyson was in heavy training for the double when Ph-Carmelita first beat her.

The second time was after the 400 rounds, 400 final, and 200 rounds and she (CJ) barely beat Allyson there.

The third time was right after worlds.

So let's not act like Carmelita is some awesome 200m runner. She's awful.

[ATK]

Im not against Felix, but you make it seem as if no one can beat her when in form at any given time. I mean a 31 year old Jeter beat her 3 times last year, before, during and after her double.

All 3 of those times were flukes, though.

Allyson was in heavy training for the double when Ph-Carmelita first beat her.

The second time was after the 400 rounds, 400 final, and 200 rounds and she (CJ) barely beat Allyson there.

The third time was right after worlds.

So let's not act like Carmelita is some awesome 200m runner. She's awful.

Sorry your actually wrong

Carmelita was heavy in training for the double when she first beat Allyson
The second time was after the 100 rounds, 100 final and 200 rounds.
The third time was right after worlds.

So lets not act like Carmelita is some awful 200m runner. Shes awesome.

[Speedster]

I love VCB but had Jeter relaxed in the 200m straight rather than pressed, she might have done the double. Another year of training and racing the 200m, Jeter is going to improve.

[fasttrack85]

Jeter is doing well for someone with limited 200 experience, I give her that. However 2011 was a very weak year for Veronica and especially for Felix so it made her look that much better. I am not sure Carmelita can do sub 22 which is probably what will be needed for gold. I am sure that both Veronica and Allyson( if she trains right) can do that.

[jamal00005]

I love VCB but had Jeter relaxed in the 200m straight rather than pressed, she might have done the double. Another year of training and racing the 200m, Jeter is going to improve.

Seriously , Jeter would have not beaten Campbell brown had she relax , because she was already tired by 150 and would had still loss the race had she been 1 or 2 metres ahead

[jamal00005]

Well being in an Olympic year i expect the winners of the 100m and 200m to be running 10.7 and 21.8 respectively so in my opinion the women who approach those times will most likely be the ones to carry home the medals

[t_monk]

Jeter is doing well for someone with limited 200 experience, I give her that. However 2011 was a very weak year for Veronica and especially for Felix so it made her look that much better. I am not sure Carmelita can do sub 22 which is probably what will be needed for gold. I am sure that both Veronica and Allyson( if she trains right) can do that.

This.

[26mi235]

And why is it that someone that has run several 10.6s (superior to VCB or what VCB's lifetime PR is likely to be), and who just started running the 200 and improved a BUNCH, placing second at WCs despite not having the background of either doubling or going that distance, going to suddenly stall our a tenth of a second slower than VCB could muster under the same circumstances?

Last April, what likelihood would you have attached to Jeter winning a medal; did it even occur to you (we had people claiming she would barely medal in the 100).

[t_monk]

And why is it that someone that has run several 10.6s (superior to VCB or what VCB's lifetime PR is likely to be), and who just started running the 200 and improved a BUNCH, placing second at WCs despite not having the background of either doubling or going that distance, going to suddenly stall our a tenth of a second slower than VCB could muster under the same circumstances?

Last April, what likelihood would you have attached to Jeter winning a medal; did it even occur to you (we had people claiming she would barely medal in the 100).

Although this is her first time doubling in a majors. Jeter isn't JUST running the 200. She had a 22.47/-0.6w PB from 2008. This was her first time running it to gain a medal in a majors and the first time actually doubling, but she has been running 200 for quite some time now.

Now as for her stalling, I don't think she will, I just don't think that she will automatically be sub-22 or even 22.0x which will be required for a gold medal (or I hope it will be that fast, a 22.2x/22.1x gold medal run at the Olympics would be underwhelming IMHO). Last season she ran the 200 ALOT and was in 10.7x shape at the very least and the best she did was 22.20. And as I stated above, she is not JUST running the 200 so with the number of times she ran the event it's fair enough to think that she could have dropped a monster time at least once last season in the deuce taking into consideration she isn't a newb at the event by a long shot.

SB of Jeter's 200 since 2007

2011 22.20 -0.4 Monaco 22/07/2011
2010 22.54 1.0 Oslo (Bislett) 04/06/2010
2009 22.59 0.0 Los Angeles, CA 11/04/2009
2008 22.47 -0.6 Carson, CA 18/05/2008
2007 22.82 0.1 Los Angeles, CA 12/05/2007

Taking her SB into consideration, If I knew the winning time was going to be 22.2x, that Felix would have been doubling and that the likes of KS, Myers, Lee, DFM and SS would be far from their best.... I would have ranked her chances pretty good!

P.S. that 22.37 was the slowest silver medal performance in a majors since 2003.

[26mi235]

t_monk, as is typical, you bring to the table a well-reasoned and well-supported argument. I think it implicitly makes the case for her most likely outcome being Bronze in the 200 if AF does not double behind AF/VCB or VCB/AF (tossup if AF does not double and VCB does, VCB the favorite if AF doubles and Jeter maybe a slight favorite for Silver if AF doubles).

The wildcard not included in this assessment is represented by a 10.89/w in March...

The was a 0.4+ improvement (from last year, and from every other year except the last Olympic year [22.20/-0.4 ~22.18; 22.54/1.0 ~22.60]). Furthermore, in 2011 she had three big races - The Trials where she had to Q, the WC Silver, and the season Finale win: her record was almost perfect, only losing the Gold to VCB and beating the co-favorite for Silver. The record is better than the marks. I think that 22.0 is reasonable (not a given, however); I think much below that would be a surprise; but even half as big a surprise as last season could possibly give her Gold (going from no expectation at all to speak of to Silver and the Finale). Of course, it is not yet Easter, so we get to see a lot more data. It is good that the top women go head-to-head more than the men so we do get more data, and VCB/SAFP/CJ... are to be commended for that. They all seemingly have their heads screwed on right and know that winning earlier races is important but not either a reason to be over-confident or to worry overmuch [SAFP, especially, seems to do that best, and good for her].

[guru]

I am not sure Carmelita can do sub 22 which is probably what will be needed for gold. I am sure that both Veronica and Allyson( if she trains right) can do that.

Well Felix hasn't broken 22 since 2009, and hasn't changed coaches. So I'm not sure I share your confidence.

[guru]

Im not against Felix, but you make it seem as if no one can beat her when in form at any given time. I mean a 31 year old Jeter beat her 3 times last year, before, during and after her double.

All 3 of those times were flukes, though.

Allyson was in heavy training for the double when Ph-Carmelita first beat her.

The second time was after the 400 rounds, 400 final, and 200 rounds and she (CJ) barely beat Allyson there.

The third time was right after worlds.

So let's not act like Carmelita is some awesome 200m runner. She's awful.

Sorry your actually wrong

Carmelita was heavy in training for the double when she first beat Allyson
The second time was after the 100 rounds, 100 final and 200 rounds.
The third time was right after worlds.

So lets not act like Carmelita is some awful 200m runner. Shes awesome.

Well said ATK.

Funny how some get banned around here for ad hominem attacks, while others receive nary a glance

[fasttrack85]

Is it me or does anyone feel Allyson is pulling everyones leg. I feel she is going to do the 200 only and is keeping her competitors in limbo. It would be maniacal to really do anything else to me.

[Speedster]

Smart thing to do is to weigh up the choices closer to the Trials and then go from there, a date is marked in the diary to make that kind of decision and her training is probably geared to that. The curse of having such talent that gives you options!

My hope is just for the 200m so she can push VCB all the way in a battle royale down the home straight, rather than VCB dominate like she did in 2008. If VCB threepeats I want it to be by 0.01!

[26mi235]

Is it me or does anyone feel Allyson is pulling everyone's leg.

No, she is a professional athlete with more medals, including gold, than 99.9% of her peers. When you get to that level in your profession you might think that people would take you seriously. At her level, in Physics she would have a Nobel Prize, in baseball she would be making $15M/year, she would have won multiple Oscars, ....

[DJG]

Is it me or does anyone feel Allyson is pulling everyones leg. I feel she is going to do the 200 only and is keeping her competitors in limbo. It would be maniacal to really do anything else to me.

More likely to keep her name in the news, her competitiors better be focused on their own
plans.

[running4life]

Is it me or does anyone feel Allyson is pulling everyones leg. I feel she is going to do the 200 only and is keeping her competitors in limbo. It would be maniacal to really do anything else to me.

More likely to keep her name in the news, her competitiors better be focused on their own
plans.

Yea ok Jeter and VCB have the 200 on lock.Allyson will have to run a pr to beat them.And it seems as tho VCB is aiming for the 200 more this year than the 100.VCB wants to make history.
Allyson should best shot is at the 400

[guru]

Jeter opens solidly at 22.31 today

http://www.royalresults.com/liveresults/120412F036.htm

[t_monk]

Jeter opens solidly at 22.31 today

http://www.royalresults.com/liveresults/120412F036.htm

This girl just keeps impressing me!

[t_monk]

The 4x100 at this meet was interesting... I wish I saw the meet results for this... Felix beat Jeter to the line in the 4x100. Looking at the names in the 4x100 you would also think that Jeter's team on paper does look better....

Event 21 Women 4x100 Meter Relay
========================================================================
School Seed Finals
========================================================================
Finals
1 Bobby Kersee All-Stars 'A' 42.99 42.65
1) Powell, Jenny 2) Turnbull, Jennba
3) Harper, Dawn 4) Felix, Allyson
2 HSI 'A' 43.00 43.06
1) Wilson, Kenyana 2) Barber, Mikele
3) Barber, Lisa 4) Jeter, Carmelita
3 Laney 'A' 44.90 45.37
1) Rose, Lauren SO 2) Purvis, Ashton FR
3) Giles, Asha FR 4) Suleman, Khadija FR
4 UCLA 'A' 43.00 46.60
1) Buchanan, Brea SO 2) Courtnall, Ally FR
3) Washington, Chelsey FR 4) Price, Kylie FR
5 San Francisco St. 'A' 46.52 46.66
1) McDaniel, Keenya SO 2) Chambers, Alicia SR
3) Baucham, Brionne SO 4) Thomas, Carrie SR
6 BYU 'A' 46.25 47.21
1) Jensen, Brooke NA 2) Dedrickson, Fatima SR
3) Jensen, Kassie FR 4) Hale, Aubrey SO

[notorious]

Jeter opens solidly at 22.31 today

http://www.royalresults.com/liveresults/120412F036.htm

This girl just keeps impressing me!

No need to get too excited. What was the wind?

[guru]

Jeter opens solidly at 22.31 today

http://www.royalresults.com/liveresults/120412F036.htm

This girl just keeps impressing me!

No need to get too excited. What was the wind?

Umm, it's right on the results 1.5

And she won her heat by .71(won overall by .50)

[t_monk]

Jeter opens solidly at 22.31 today

http://www.royalresults.com/liveresults/120412F036.htm

This girl just keeps impressing me!

No need to get too excited. What was the wind?

+w1.5
For a season opener that is damn good. That would make any World/Oly finals >_>

[notorious]

Jeter opens solidly at 22.31 today

http://www.royalresults.com/liveresults/120412F036.htm

This girl just keeps impressing me!

No need to get too excited. What was the wind?

+w1.5
For a season opener that is damn good. That would make any World/Oly finals >_>

I am still not excited

[guru]

For a season opener that is damn good. That would make any World/Oly finals >_>

Not to mention the 4x1 leg 90 minutes before

[ATK]

Looks like Felix also ran the 3rd leg of the 4x400.

[26mi235]

Jeter opens solidly at 22.31 today

http://www.royalresults.com/liveresults/120412F036.htm

This girl just keeps impressing me!

No need to get too excited. What was the wind?

Well, you got excited by a 9.90/1.6, and in terms of the status quo, this upsets it more than the 9.90.

[JumboElliott]

Carmelita is not Jamaican, and more importantly isn't coached by Glenn Mills.

[Gabriella]

22.31 is a fantastic opener so early in the season. To suggest it's anything other is ridiculous. It's faster than she ran herself in the Daegu final (and of course faster than Felix) and, notorious, faster than VCB ran in the Berlin final, faster than VCB ran in the Osaka final, faster than VCB in the Helsinki final and would earn Jeter a medal in every World Championships 200m final since 1999, as well as Sydney. So, let's not poo poo this as anything other than a great performance in April.

Whether she improves as she should we'll have to wait and see.

[notorious]

22.31 is a fantastic opener so early in the season. To suggest it's anything other is ridiculous. It's faster than she ran herself in the Daegu final (and of course faster than Felix) and, notorious, faster than VCB ran in the Berlin final, faster than VCB ran in the Osaka final, faster than VCB in the Helsinki final and would earn Jeter a medal in every World Championships 200m final since 1999, as well as Sydney. So, let's not poo poo this as anything other than a great performance in April.

Whether she improves as she should we'll have to wait and see.

When Jeter can break 22 seconds, you can give me a call