aaronk wrote:Only 29! I know, it's probably one of our best-ever showings in the OG, but we coulda shoulda woulda done even better!!
Just today alone, we missed one with Lowe, another with Montano (though she was on the edge, not quite inside, the envelope!!), and 1, 2, or even 3 with the 5K group!!
Not sure two medals in the women's HJ is any reasonable expectation and I don't at all agree with Montano. Possible Lagat could have gotten a medal in the 5000m
Logan 'validated' by US success August 10, 2012 "When I challenged the federation to perform up to its potential, I knew it had an Olympics like this in it. But a lot of people, including my own board members, thought I was arrogant and ill-informed."
Team USA takes 1 gold, 2 silver as medals surge to 29 8/11/2012 "With one road event - the men’s marathon - to be contested on Sunday, Team USA’s medal tally stands at 29 medals: nine gold, 13 silver and seven bronze. The women have accounted for 14 of those medals (6 gold, 4 silver, 4 bronze), just two behind the all-time record of 16 won at the boycotted 1984 Games."
17 women... 100m Carmelita Jeter 200m Carmelita Jeter 200m Allyson Felix 400m Sanya Richards-Ross 400m Allyson Felix 400m Deedee Trotter 1500m Jenny Simpson 100m h Kellie Wells 100m h Dawn Harper 400m h Lashinda Demus 4x100m women 4x400m women HJ Brigetta Barrett PV Jenn Suhr LJ Brittney Reese LJ Janay DeLoach SP Jillian Camarena-Williams
19 men... 100m Walter Dix 100m Justin Gatlin 400m LaShawn Merritt 1500m Leonel Manzano 10k Galen Rupp 110m h Jason Richardson 110m h Aries Merritt 400m h Michael Tinsley 4x400m USA 4x100m USA HJ Erik Kynard HJ Jesse Williams LJ Dwight Phillips LJ Will Claye SP Reese Hoffa TJ Christian Taylor TJ Will Claye Deca Trey Hardee Deca Ashton Eaton
'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years' "Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."
Look, whatever the goal might have been, or whatever the seers were predicting, the USA did damn well in London!! But now, in retrospect, using hindsight (FUCK hindsight!!!!), it's easy for me to see where the USA did far WORSE than we coulda woulda shoulda have done!!! (SCREW shoulda woulda coulda!!!!) Anyway, assuming we retain ALL 29 of our medalists next year (Goooddddd LUCK!!!!), I see an ADDITIONAL 21 (that's right, 21!!!) we CAN add to those 29 in Moscow. And this list is JUST from the London qualifiers, the ones who competed in London, but failed to medal, or even qualify for the finals.
Men
Gay in the 100 Spearmon in the 200 ???? in the 400 (The USA's GOTTA have SOMEBODY in the 400 next year!!!) Lagat AND Rupp in the 5K Jager in the SC Hall in the Mar Clement AND Taylor in the 400H Williams in the HJ Walker in the PV Cantwell in the SP
Women
McCorory in the 400 Montano in the 800 Uceny and Simpson in the 1500 Flanagan and Goucher in the Mar Lowe in the HJ JCW in the SP SBT in the DT Fountain in the Hept
And then there's all the guys and gals who were NOT on this year's Olympic team!! Just off the top of my head, here's a few possibilities.
Men
Charles Jock in the 800 Robby Andrews in the 1500 Chris Solinski and Chris Derrick in the 10K David Oliver in the 110H Colin McCullough in the HT Sam Crouser in the JT
Women
Jeneba Tarmoh in the 200 (Don't laugh!!) Mary Cain (Okay, this is my "Insanity Factory" at work!!) in the 1500 Natosha Rogers in the 10K Shelbi Vaughan in the DT
aaronk wrote:Anyway, assuming we retain ALL 29 of our medalists next year (Goooddddd LUCK!!!!), I see an ADDITIONAL 21 (that's right, 21!!!) we CAN add to those 29 in Moscow. And this list is JUST from the London qualifiers, the ones who competed in London, but failed to medal, or even qualify for the finals.
Men
Gay in the 100 Spearmon in the 200 ???? in the 400 (The USA's GOTTA have SOMEBODY in the 400 next year!!!) Lagat AND Rupp in the 5K Jager in the SC Hall in the Mar Clement AND Taylor in the 400H Williams in the HJ Walker in the PV Cantwell in the SP
Women
McCorory in the 400 Montano in the 800 Uceny and Simpson in the 1500 Flanagan and Goucher in the Mar Lowe in the HJ JCW in the SP SBT in the DT Fountain in the Hept
And then there's all the guys and gals who were NOT on this year's Olympic team!! Just off the top of my head, here's a few possibilities.
Men
Charles Jock in the 800 Robby Andrews in the 1500 Chris Solinski and Chris Derrick in the 10K David Oliver in the 110H Colin McCullough in the HT Sam Crouser in the JT
Women
Jeneba Tarmoh in the 200 (Don't laugh!!) Mary Cain (Okay, this is my "Insanity Factory" at work!!) in the 1500 Natosha Rogers in the 10K Shelbi Vaughan in the DT
Okay, maybe we should be satisfied with 29!!
Your approach is wrong. What you should ask yourself is not which additional American athletes have a chance to medal but whether the US have a chance to gain more medal in each event, For example, you mention Gay in the 100. While I agree that a healthy Gay has a chance to medal (maybe even silver) With Bolt and Blake there is no chance that the US will win two medals. Similarly, McCorory may medal in the 400, but I doubt very much that the US can clean sweep the 400 in Moscow.
bushop wrote:'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years' "Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."
There are also more countries competing for medals. USATF definitely needs to do something about the field events, but I don't know what they can do.
bushop wrote:'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years' "Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."
There are also more countries competing for medals. USATF definitely needs to do something about the field events, but I don't know what they can do.
Here's something USATF could do:
Persuade the High School Federation (or whatever it's called) have their athletes move from the junior weights (12 lb shots, etc) and lower hurdles (39" instead of 42") to the international weights and heights for their Junior and Senior years.
Stick with the lesser weights and heights while Frosh and Sophs, then move them EXCLUSIVELY to the international weights and heights the rest of the way!!
That way, there won't be that transition period in their first year of college where they're getting used to the heavier weight implements, etc.
it is very unlikely the us medal count will go up next year. there are too many variable such as injuries, retirements, expected decline in some of the "older" athletes, not being able to make the team, events getting more competitive world wide etc etc. at least with the world championships the us has several wild cards (a total of 10 individual defending champions) but how many of those are still going to be medal contenders ? i think 25 medals is much more realistic and anything beyond that is a bonus.
bushop wrote:'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years' "Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."
There are also more countries competing for medals. USATF definitely needs to do something about the field events, but I don't know what they can do.
Here's something USATF could do: Persuade the High School Federation (or whatever it's called) have their athletes move from the junior weights (12 lb shots, etc) and lower hurdles (39" instead of 42") to the international weights and heights for their Junior and Senior years. Stick with the lesser weights and heights while Frosh and Sophs, then move them EXCLUSIVELY to the international weights and heights the rest of the way!! That way, there won't be that transition period in their first year of college where they're getting used to the heavier weight implements, etc.
Sorry for my dim-wittedness... are you serious or being sarcastic and saying the opposite what you believe should be done?
bushop wrote:'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years' "Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."
There are also more countries competing for medals. USATF definitely needs to do something about the field events, but I don't know what they can do.
Here's something USATF could do: Persuade the High School Federation (or whatever it's called) have their athletes move from the junior weights (12 lb shots, etc) and lower hurdles (39" instead of 42") to the international weights and heights for their Junior and Senior years. Stick with the lesser weights and heights while Frosh and Sophs, then move them EXCLUSIVELY to the international weights and heights the rest of the way!! That way, there won't be that transition period in their first year of college where they're getting used to the heavier weight implements, etc.
Sorry for my dim-wittedness... are you serious or being sarcastic and saying the opposite what you believe should be done?
If you're asking if I'm serious (or sarcastic) about my suggestion that 11th and 12th graders exclusively throw intl weights and run over 42" hurdles, then I am TOTALLY serious!!
Are HS'ers wimps, sissy's, not capable of using those size implements, etc?? Hell no!!
Michael Carter threw 67-9 with the 16 pounder in 1979, along with his 81-3 1/2 12 pound throw. Colin McCullough threw 219-7 with the intl hammer.
But it's not only the throws and hurdles that should be changed. How about having 11th and 12th graders run the collegiate distances on the track, and especially in CC??
Can't they handle a 5K or 10K or a 3000SC (not a 2000SC) on the track, and an 8000 or 10000 in CC?? I've known 10 year olds who ran marathons!!
Get them used to that type of training, and those distances (weights, hurdle heights, etc), and you've got a much stronger collegiate class!!
Also, in the Dec and Hept, use intl wts and the higher hurdles, etc!! It's ridiculous to have 2 or 3 different Dec records for HS'ers!! And finally, imagine what Jacko Gill might have done if he'd thrown ONLY the 16 pounder!!
aaronk wrote:Are HS'ers wimps, sissy's, not capable of using those size implements, etc?? Hell no!!
Would you say the IAAF made mistake by going to lighter implements for the U18 girls? For example, the U18 girls will be throwing the 3 kg shot put.
Tell the truth, I'm NOT up on rules and regs in T&F....at ANY level!! So I don't know about any new rules for under-18 girls.
But if such a rule has been entered on the books, then YES, I'm against it!!
Here's an analogy:
The 12 lb shot (and all "jr" wts and hurdle heights, etc) are like training wheels on an adult bicycle. You might need to acclimate yourself to riding a bike....i.e. balancing, etc. But eventually those training wheels are removed...and the kid is on his way to the Tour de France!
You want a solution to the lousy USA results in the throws?? I firmly believe using "jr" wts is a BIG reason why we're so bad there.
By the time a kid is 17 or 18, (usually their Junior or Senior year in high school), their bodies have developed to the point they can handle the heavier weights, the higher hurdles.
Look at some of those guys who throw 75 feet....or even just 70 or 72 feet....with the 12 pounder.....then take 3 or 4 or more years to get anywhere near 70 feet with the 16 pounder!!
If they started in the 11th grade using the 16 pounder exclusively....(throw out the training wheels!!)....you might see more 70 footers in their FIRST year of college....if not in their senior year of high school.
And yes, the same with the girls. Let them too throw away their training wheels after 10th grade!!
(EDIT) Thought of another analogy....but concerning the distances run by high schoolers on the track and cross country.
When I was in school, the Junior Varsity would run 660 yards instead of an 880, or 1320 yards instead of 1 mile. In CC, we ran 1.5 miles instead of 2 or 3 miles!! Only on the "Varsity" did we run the full distance!!
Letter from Doug Logan August 12, 2012 "Main structural change was to professionalize high performance and begin to take power and responsibility of elite athlete development out of the hands of volunteer committees that were totally unaccountable to anyone."
aaronk wrote:Are HS'ers wimps, sissy's, not capable of using those size implements, etc?? Hell no!!
Would you say the IAAF made mistake by going to lighter implements for the U18 girls? For example, the U18 girls will be throwing the 3 kg shot put.
Tell the truth, I'm NOT up on rules and regs in T&F....at ANY level!!
That's pretty obvious.
aaronk wrote:You want a solution to the lousy USA results in the throws?? I firmly believe using "jr" wts is a BIG reason why we're so bad there.
Actually, aaronk, the whole world uses the junior implements for juniors, so why do other countries succeed?
Your examples of Michael Carter and Jacko Gill are not relevant to the mass of high school athletes.
What's your suggestion for the women's TJ? Maybe we should put a bed of hot coals between 42 and 48 feet from the takeoff board. That would get them off their asses! >:-)
Personally, I don't give a good god damn how many medals the US wins, but I would like to see more emphasis placed on the throwing events, especially the javelin, men and women. One of the reasons I don't agree with GH about the Oly Trials being the best meet of all is that we have several events where the fields are mediocre, compared to international ones.
I was surprised to see the 29 medals, but we actually got all the relays on the podium, which hasn't happened in a while (in 2007 we won them all, IIRC). Cheers, Alan Shank
That's a silly statement. The total number of medals available is roughly constant (OK, a few new events were introduced in the last 20 years, but it's not that much of a difference). Therefore, you can't have all countries win more and more medals over time. If we accept that the US was doing well 20 years ago, then we have to say they are still doing well today if they are still able to win the same number of medals. More than well, considering that the competition has arguably become stronger, with more and more countries developing their T&F programs and fighting for medals.
