USA's Beijing medal hopes •


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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby bushop » Sat Jul 28, 2012 8:34 am

Track & Field News' still predicts 29 medals:
12 women’s medals...
100m Carmelita Jeter
200m Allyson Felix, Carmelita Jeter
400m Sanya Richards-Ross
100m h Dawn Harper, Kellie Wells
400m h Lashinda Demus
4x100m
4x400m
HJ Chaunté Lowe
PV Jenn Suhr
LJ Brittney Reese
17 men’s medals...
100m Tyson Gay
200m Wallace Spearmon
400m LaShawn Merritt
5k Bernard Lagat
10k Galen Rupp
110m h Aries Merritt, Jason Richardson
400m h Angelo Taylor
4x100m
4x400m
HJ Jesse Williams
PV Brad Walker
TJ Christian Taylor, Will Claye
SP Reese Hoffa
Dec Ashton Eaton, Trey Hardee
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby Marlow » Sat Jul 28, 2012 10:18 am

I'll say 25 is a good guess, but if that's the over/under, I'll take OVER!
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby bushop » Sat Jul 28, 2012 8:34 pm

Marlow wrote:I'll say 25 is a good guess, but if that's the over/under, I'll take OVER!

Who are your drop/adds from T&F News' picks?
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby Marlow » Sun Jul 29, 2012 5:39 am

bushop wrote:
Marlow wrote:I'll say 25 is a good guess, but if that's the over/under, I'll take OVER!

Who are your drop/adds from T&F News' picks?

I have
Men - 7 golds, 16 medals
Women - 7 golds, 13 medals

that's 29 medals, but I also know I have a natural US bias, so we won't get all 29.
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby Runnerz76 » Sun Jul 29, 2012 6:54 am

Marlow wrote:
bushop wrote:
Marlow wrote:I'll say 25 is a good guess, but if that's the over/under, I'll take OVER!

Who are your drop/adds from T&F News' picks?

I have
Men - 7 golds, 16 medals
Women - 7 golds, 13 medals

that's 29 medals, but I also know I have a natural US bias, so we won't get all 29.


Marlow, I have the USA getting exactly 30 medals (McQuay and Rupp included), and I try very hard not to be a homer. You commented about doing so much research and then having similar picks to T&F News. I feel the exact same way. I worked my tail off this year, and then I find that T&F News has similar picks. But I do have some long shots in there that other people dont have (men's long jump, men's hammer, and women's 400m). I hope to see your picks in the Netherlands contest.
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby olorin » Sun Jul 29, 2012 8:41 pm

bushop wrote:Track & Field News' predicts 29 medals:
12 women’s medals...

I think that 29 medals for the US is a bit too optimistic as I predict "only" 26. The problem is not with individual predictions (they all make sense) but with the summing of these predictions to one number. For example let’s look at the 5,000m & 10000m. According to the prediction the US is expected to win two medals (Laggat & Rupp). I believe that Laggat’s chances of winning a medal are roughly 50% whereas Rupp’s chances are probably slightly lower. This suggests that the US are likely to win a single medal in these events and not two. Of course if the US had many outside chances for medals it shouldn’t meter. The problem that I do not see many realistic chances for additional medals and some events that the US can go below the prediction.
So here is my predictions for medal chances of the US vs. TFN.

Women (11 vs. 12 TFN)
100m Carmelita Jeter - 1 (Felix dark horse but not worth 0.5)
200m Allyson Felix, Carmelita Jeter - 1.5 (Jeter can lose the medal to SAFP)
400m Sanya Richards-Ross 1 (though another SRR meltdown is not impossible)
100m h Dawn Harper, Kellie Wells 1.5 (four athletes with qualifying times of 12.47-12.56)
400m h Lashinda Demus 1 (almost lock)
4x100m 0.5 (on a good day :-))
4x400m 1
HJ Chaunté Lowe 1 (can Barrett show that she is not a onetime wonder?)
PV Jenn Suhr 0.5 (plenty of talents in the field with no backup for the US)
LJ Brittney Reese 1 (Deloach almost worth 0.5)
SP - 0.5 (Gong vs. CAMARENA-WILLIAMS)
Other events - 0.5 (800, 1500, additional LJ & HJ)

men (15 vs. 17 TFN)
100m Tyson Gay 1 (almost 0.5 as Jamaican sweep is not impossible)
200m Wallace Spearmon 0.5 (close between Lemaitre and Spearmon for Bronze)
400m LaShawn Merritt 1 (would go to 1.5 without Merritt’s injury)
5k Bernard Lagat 0.5
10k Galen Rupp 0.5
110m h Aries Merritt, Jason Richardson 2 (reasonable)
400m h Angelo Taylor 1 (any number between 0-2 so 1 sound reasonable)
4x100m 0.5 (need I say more)
4x400m 1
HJ Jesse Williams 1
PV Brad Walker 0.5 (five athletes with 5.9x SB)
TJ Christian Taylor, Will Claye 2
SP Reese Hoffa 1.5 (Hoffa consistent so likely to medal, Cantwell & Whiting additional 50%)
Dec Ashton Eaton, Trey Hardee 2
Rest of the events 0.5 (long shot in the 800,1,500, 3000sc, LJ)
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby bushop » Sun Aug 05, 2012 4:29 pm

medalists:
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
400m Deedee Trotter bronze*
PV Jenn Suhr gold

100m Justin Gatlin bronze*
10k Galen Rupp silver
400m h Michael Tinsley silver*
LJ Will Claye silver*
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
*not on T&F News' prediction list

Track & Field News' still predicts 29 medals:
12 women’s medals...
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
200m Allyson Felix, Carmelita Jeter
100m h Dawn Harper, Kellie Wells
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
400m h Lashinda Demus
4x100m
4x400m
HJ Chaunté Lowe
PV Jenn Suhr gold
LJ Brittney Reese
17 men’s medals...
100m Tyson Gay 4th
200m Wallace Spearmon
400m LaShawn Merritt inj
5k Bernard Lagat
10k Galen Rupp silver
110m h Aries Merritt, Jason Richardson
400m h Angelo Taylor 5th
4x100m
4x400m
HJ Jesse Williams through to the final
PV Brad Walker
TJ Christian Taylor, Will Claye
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
Dec Ashton Eaton, Trey Hardee
Last edited by bushop on Mon Aug 06, 2012 8:55 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby MightyBurner » Sun Aug 05, 2012 5:01 pm

Actually, as of right now, it's looking like they may exceed that projection.
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby MissThickBooty » Tue Aug 07, 2012 12:38 pm

WOW what a meet the USA is having but we need to start winning GOLDS!!! Only 2 golds? Our overall medal count is going to to depend on our performance in Track. Damn why are there so many medals in Weightlight, Diving, Badminton?
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby aaronk » Tue Aug 07, 2012 1:36 pm

After Manzano's Silver in the 1500, the USA has 13 medals so far.
(Hoffa, Claye, Rupp, Jeter, SRR, Trotter, Gatlin, Suhr, Tinsley, Kynard, Harper, Wells, and Manzano.)
There are 23 finals to go.
Not all of them have had their heats and semis or Q's yet, so the total number of USA athletes who have a CHANCE to medal is not known.
But let me venture a guess.

"Sure" to medal:

Lowe and Barrett in HJ.
Lagat in 5K
Claye and Taylor in TJ.
Eaton and Hardee in Dec.
Reese and DeLoach in the LJ.
Demus in the 400H.
Felix in the 200.
Richardson and Merritt in the 110H.
Uceny in the 1500.
Solomon in the 800.
M 4X100R.
W 4X100 and 4X400R.

That's 18 "sures"!!

In the "Possibles" are:

Acuff in the HJ.
Rupp in the 5K.
Montano in the 800.
Moline and Brown in the 400H.
SRR and Jeter in the 200.
Porter in the 110H.
Simpson and Rowbury in the 1500.
Symmonds in the 800.
Spearmon in the 200.
Huddle in the 5K.
M 4X400R.

That's 14 "possibles".

18 "sures" and 14 "possibles" add to 32.
Add 32 to the 13 already won, and the USA can POSSIBLY win 45 medals!!!

I know.

FAT CHANCE!!!!!
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby bushop » Tue Aug 07, 2012 5:15 pm

medalists:
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
400m Deedee Trotter bronze*
100m h Kellie Wells silver
100m h Dawn Harper bronze
PV Jenn Suhr gold

100m Justin Gatlin bronze*
1500m Leonel Manzano silver*
10k Galen Rupp silver
400m h Michael Tinsley silver*
HJ Erik Kynard silver
LJ Will Claye silver*
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
*not on T&F News' prediction list

Track & Field News' still predicts 29 medals:
12 women’s medals...
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
200m Allyson Felix
200m Carmelita Jeter
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
100m h Kellie Wells silver
100m h Dawn Harper bronze
400m h Lashinda Demus
4x100m
4x400m
HJ Chaunté Lowe
PV Jenn Suhr gold
LJ Brittney Reese
17 men’s medals...
100m Tyson Gay 4th
200m Wallace Spearmon through 1st round
400m LaShawn Merritt inj
5k Bernard Lagat
10k Galen Rupp silver
110m h Aries Merritt
110m h Jason Richardson
400m h Angelo Taylor 5th
4x100m
4x400m
HJ Jesse Williams 9th
PV Brad Walker
TJ Christian Taylor through to final
TJ Will Claye through to final
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
Dec Ashton Eaton
Dec Trey Hardee
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby aaronk » Wed Aug 08, 2012 1:04 pm

aaronk wrote:After Manzano's Silver in the 1500, the USA has 13 medals so far.
(Hoffa, Claye, Rupp, Jeter, SRR, Trotter, Gatlin, Suhr, Tinsley, Kynard, Harper, Wells, and Manzano.)
There are 23 finals to go.
Not all of them have had their heats and semis or Q's yet, so the total number of USA athletes who have a CHANCE to medal is not known.
But let me venture a guess.

"Sure" to medal:

Lowe and Barrett in HJ.
Lagat in 5K
Claye and Taylor in TJ.
Eaton and Hardee in Dec.
Reese and DeLoach in the LJ.
Demus in the 400H.
Felix in the 200.
Richardson and Merritt in the 110H.
Uceny in the 1500.
Solomon in the 800.
M 4X100R.
W 4X100 and 4X400R.

That's 18 "sures"!!

In the "Possibles" are:

Acuff in the HJ.
Rupp in the 5K.
Montano in the 800.
Moline and Brown in the 400H.
SRR and Jeter in the 200.
Porter in the 110H.
Simpson and Rowbury in the 1500.
Symmonds in the 800.
Spearmon in the 200.
Huddle in the 5K.
M 4X400R.

That's 14 "possibles".

18 "sures" and 14 "possibles" add to 32.
Add 32 to the 13 already won, and the USA can POSSIBLY win 45 medals!!!

I know.

FAT CHANCE!!!!!


In the 4 finals run today, 7 more USA medals!! (Reese, DeLoach, Demus, Felix, Jeter, Merritt, Richardson)
Six of those are from my "sure" list, with one from my "possible" list.

That makes 20 total medals so far......with 19 finals left to go!!
There remain 12 "sures", and 8 "possibles" from my lists!!
Thirty total looks VERY doable!!
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby bushop » Wed Aug 08, 2012 4:02 pm

medalists (20 medals):
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
200m Allyson Felix gold
200m Carmelita Jeter bronze
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
400m Deedee Trotter bronze*
100m h Kellie Wells silver
100m h Dawn Harper bronze
400m h Lashinda Demus silver
PV Jenn Suhr gold
LJ Brittney Reese gold
LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*

100m Justin Gatlin bronze*
1500m Leonel Manzano silver*
10k Galen Rupp silver
110m h Aries Merritt gold
110m h Jason Richardson silver
400m h Michael Tinsley silver*
HJ Erik Kynard silver
LJ Will Claye silver*
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
*not on T&F News' prediction list

Track & Field News' still predicts 29 medals:
12 women’s medals...
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
200m Allyson Felix
200m Carmelita Jeter
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
100m h Kellie Wells silver
100m h Dawn Harper bronze
400m h Lashinda Demus
4x100m women
4x400m women
HJ Chaunté Lowe
PV Jenn Suhr gold
LJ Brittney Reese
17 men’s medals...
100m Tyson Gay 4th
200m Wallace Spearmon through to the final
400m LaShawn Merritt inj
5k Bernard Lagat
10k Galen Rupp silver
110m h Aries Merritt gold
110m h Jason Richardson silver
400m h Angelo Taylor 5th
4x100m men
4x400m men
HJ Jesse Williams 9th
PV Brad Walker through to the final
TJ Christian Taylor through to final
TJ Will Claye through to final
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
Dec Ashton Eaton kicking ass
Dec Trey Hardee kicking everyone elses' ass
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Re: USA's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby bushop » Wed Aug 08, 2012 8:31 pm

Marlow wrote:my picks, i.e., legit medal contenders:

01.) Jeshua Anderson (long hurdles)
02.) Christian Cantwell (shot put)
03.) Bryan Clay (multis)
04.) Kerron Clement (long hurdles)
05.) Shawn Crawford (200 meters) ............... no
06.) Lashinda Demus (long hurdles)
07.) Walter Dix (100 | 200 meters)
08.) Ashton Eaton (multis)
09.) Allyson Felix (200 | 400 meters)
10.) Shalane Flanagan (distance)
11.) Hyleas Fountain (multis)
12.) Tyson Gay (100 | 200 meters)
13.) Dawn Harper (sprint hurdles)
14.) Reese Hoffa (shot put)
15.) Bershawn Jackson (long hurdles)
16.) Carmelita Jeter (100 | 200 meters)
17.) Chelsea Johnson (vault) ..................no
18.) Kibwé Johnson (hammer)
19.) Lolo Jones (sprint hurdles)
20.) Bernard Lagat (distance)
21.) Tony McQuay (400 meters)
22.) Aries Merritt (sprint hurdles)
23.) LaShawn Merritt (400 meters)
24.) Derek Miles (vault)
25.) Adam Nelson (shot put)
26.) David Oliver (sprint hurdles)
27.) Dwight Phillips (long jump)
28.) Brittney Reese (long jump)
29.) Sanya Richards (400 meters)
30.) Shannon Rowbury (1500 meters)...............no
31.) Jenn Suhr (vault)
32.) Angelo Taylor (long hurdles | 400 meters)
33.) Sheena Tosta (long hurdles).....................no
34.) Stephanie Brown Trafton (discus)
35.) Terrence Trammell (sprint hurdles).............no
36.) Brad Walker (vault)
37.) Jeremy Wariner (400 meters)
38.) Jillian Camarena-Williams (shot put)
39. Kellie Wells
40. Danielle Carruthers
41. Marshevet Myers
42. Chaunte Lowe

+ Gatlin
+ all 4 relays
+ Goodwin
+ C Taylor
+ Cantwell
+ Nelson
+ Hoffa
+ Hardee
+ J. Williams

so that's 54 - the 5 above = 49 medal shots. My prediction: at least half of those = 25.

Actually I see a reasonable expectation of around 17-18 men and 12-13 women, so there's your 30!!

What do you see now?
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USA's London Olympic medal count • 24

Postby bushop » Thu Aug 09, 2012 1:38 pm

medalists (24 medals):
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
200m Allyson Felix gold
200m Carmelita Jeter bronze
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
400m Deedee Trotter bronze*
100m h Kellie Wells silver
100m h Dawn Harper bronze
400m h Lashinda Demus silver
PV Jenn Suhr gold
LJ Brittney Reese gold
LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*

100m Justin Gatlin bronze*
1500m Leonel Manzano silver*
10k Galen Rupp silver
110m h Aries Merritt gold
110m h Jason Richardson silver
400m h Michael Tinsley silver*
HJ Erik Kynard silver
LJ Will Claye silver*
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
TJ Christian Taylor gold
TJ Will Claye silver
Dec Ashton Eaton gold
Dec Trey Hardee silver
*not on T&F News' prediction list

Track & Field News' still predicts 29 medals:
12 women’s medals...
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
200m Allyson Felix
200m Carmelita Jeter
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
100m h Kellie Wells silver
100m h Dawn Harper bronze
400m h Lashinda Demus
4x100m women through to the final
4x400m women
HJ Chaunté Lowe
PV Jenn Suhr gold
LJ Brittney Reese
17 men’s medals...
100m Tyson Gay 4th
200m Wallace Spearmon 4th
400m LaShawn Merritt inj
5k Bernard Lagat
10k Galen Rupp silver
110m h Aries Merritt gold
110m h Jason Richardson silver
400m h Angelo Taylor 5th
4x100m men
4x400m men through to the final
HJ Jesse Williams 9th
PV Brad Walker through to the final
TJ Christian Taylor gold
TJ Will Claye silver
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
Dec Ashton Eaton gold
Dec Trey Hardee silver
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 24

Postby aaronk » Thu Aug 09, 2012 2:29 pm

aaronk wrote:
aaronk wrote:After Manzano's Silver in the 1500, the USA has 13 medals so far.
(Hoffa, Claye, Rupp, Jeter, SRR, Trotter, Gatlin, Suhr, Tinsley, Kynard, Harper, Wells, and Manzano.)
There are 23 finals to go.
Not all of them have had their heats and semis or Q's yet, so the total number of USA athletes who have a CHANCE to medal is not known.
But let me venture a guess.

"Sure" to medal:

Lowe and Barrett in HJ.
Lagat in 5K
Claye and Taylor in TJ.
Eaton and Hardee in Dec.
Reese and DeLoach in the LJ.
Demus in the 400H.
Felix in the 200.
Richardson and Merritt in the 110H.
Uceny in the 1500.
Solomon in the 800.
M 4X100R.
W 4X100 and 4X400R.

That's 18 "sures"!!

In the "Possibles" are:

Acuff in the HJ.
Rupp in the 5K.
Montano in the 800.
Moline and Brown in the 400H.
SRR and Jeter in the 200.
Porter in the 110H.
Simpson and Rowbury in the 1500.
Symmonds in the 800.
Spearmon in the 200.
Huddle in the 5K.
M 4X400R.

That's 14 "possibles".

18 "sures" and 14 "possibles" add to 32.
Add 32 to the 13 already won, and the USA can POSSIBLY win 45 medals!!!

I know.

FAT CHANCE!!!!!


In the 4 finals run today, 7 more USA medals!! (Reese, DeLoach, Demus, Felix, Jeter, Merritt, Richardson)
Six of those are from my "sure" list, with one from my "possible" list.

That makes 20 total medals so far......with 19 finals left to go!!
There remain 12 "sures", and 8 "possibles" from my lists!!
Thirty total looks VERY doable!!


Add 4 more (Taylor, Claye, Eaton, and Hardee), for a total of 24!!
And there are 15 more finals to go!!

Of course, the USA does NOT have viable entrants in all of them.
Eliminate the 2 walks, the men's JT, the women's HT, and we have 11 events where we have "possible" medalists!!

I think it's safe to predict we'll top the USATF wish list of 30, and the T&FN-predicted 29.
How many WILL we get??
The fun is in the finding out!!
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 24

Postby bushop » Fri Aug 10, 2012 6:23 am

OG 2012 Track & Field: August 9: Ho hum, four more medals!
[Before we get going, please note (1) we’re using the Track & Field News Olympic previews as our form charts, and (2) we’re using the IAAF’s points-scoring system of 8-7-6-5-4-3-2-1 for eight places.]
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 25

Postby bushop » Fri Aug 10, 2012 1:07 pm

26 medals:
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
200m Allyson Felix gold
200m Carmelita Jeter bronze
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
400m Deedee Trotter bronze*
100m h Kellie Wells silver
100m h Dawn Harper bronze
400m h Lashinda Demus silver
4x100m women gold
PV Jenn Suhr gold
LJ Brittney Reese gold
LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*

100m Justin Gatlin bronze*
1500m Leonel Manzano silver*
10k Galen Rupp silver
110m h Aries Merritt gold
110m h Jason Richardson silver
400m h Michael Tinsley silver*
4x400m men silver
HJ Erik Kynard silver
LJ Will Claye silver*
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
TJ Christian Taylor gold
TJ Will Claye silver
Dec Ashton Eaton gold
Dec Trey Hardee silver

*not on T&F News' list

Track & Field News' predicts 29:
12 women...
100m Carmelita Jeter
200m Allyson Felix
200m Carmelita Jeter
400m Sanya Richards-Ross
100m h Kellie Wells
100m h Dawn Harper
400m h Lashinda Demus
4x100m women
4x400m women through to the final
HJ Chaunté Lowe
PV Jenn Suhr
LJ Brittney Reese
17 men...
100m Tyson Gay 4th
200m Wallace Spearmon 4th
400m LaShawn Merritt inj
5k Bernard Lagat
10k Galen Rupp
110m h Aries Merritt
110m h Jason Richardson
400m h Angelo Taylor 5th
4x100m men through to the final
4x400m men
HJ Jesse Williams 9th
PV Brad Walker nh
TJ Christian Taylor
TJ Will Claye
SP Reese Hoffa
Dec Ashton Eaton
Dec Trey Hardee
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 26

Postby aaronk » Fri Aug 10, 2012 1:56 pm

aaronk wrote:
aaronk wrote:
aaronk wrote:After Manzano's Silver in the 1500, the USA has 13 medals so far.
(Hoffa, Claye, Rupp, Jeter, SRR, Trotter, Gatlin, Suhr, Tinsley, Kynard, Harper, Wells, and Manzano.)
There are 23 finals to go.
Not all of them have had their heats and semis or Q's yet, so the total number of USA athletes who have a CHANCE to medal is not known.
But let me venture a guess.

"Sure" to medal:

Lowe and Barrett in HJ.
Lagat in 5K
Claye and Taylor in TJ.
Eaton and Hardee in Dec.
Reese and DeLoach in the LJ.
Demus in the 400H.
Felix in the 200.
Richardson and Merritt in the 110H.
Uceny in the 1500.
Solomon in the 800.
M 4X100R.
W 4X100 and 4X400R.

That's 18 "sures"!!

In the "Possibles" are:

Acuff in the HJ.
Rupp in the 5K.
Montano in the 800.
Moline and Brown in the 400H.
SRR and Jeter in the 200.
Porter in the 110H.
Simpson and Rowbury in the 1500.
Symmonds in the 800.
Spearmon in the 200.
Huddle in the 5K.
M 4X400R.

That's 14 "possibles".

18 "sures" and 14 "possibles" add to 32.
Add 32 to the 13 already won, and the USA can POSSIBLY win 45 medals!!!

I know.

FAT CHANCE!!!!!


In the 4 finals run today, 7 more USA medals!! (Reese, DeLoach, Demus, Felix, Jeter, Merritt, Richardson)
Six of those are from my "sure" list, with one from my "possible" list.

That makes 20 total medals so far......with 19 finals left to go!!
There remain 12 "sures", and 8 "possibles" from my lists!!
Thirty total looks VERY doable!!


Add 4 more (Taylor, Claye, Eaton, and Hardee), for a total of 24!!
And there are 15 more finals to go!!

Of course, the USA does NOT have viable entrants in all of them.
Eliminate the 2 walks, the men's JT, the women's HT, and we have 11 events where we have "possible" medalists!!

I think it's safe to predict we'll top the USATF wish list of 30, and the T&FN-predicted 29.
How many WILL we get??
The fun is in the finding out!!


Now up to 26!!
In the last 9 events, the USA has SEVEN "legitimate" chances at medals.
They are: Lowe and Barrett, Rupp and Lagat, Montano, and the W 4X400R and the M 4X100R.
Ryan Hall, if he has one of his ON days....has an outside chance to medal.

If all 7 above medal, we'll finish with 33.
I think that "Project 30" just might be a success!!
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 26

Postby Marlow » Fri Aug 10, 2012 5:08 pm

aaronk wrote:If all 7 above medal, we'll finish with 33. I think that "Project 30" just might be a success!!

All the 30 takes is

wHJ - Lowe (or Barrett)
m5000 - Lagat (or Rupp)
w800 - no one!
w4x4
m4x1

That's eminently doable!!!
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 28

Postby bushop » Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:45 am

28 medals:
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
200m Allyson Felix gold
200m Carmelita Jeter bronze
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
400m Deedee Trotter bronze*
100m h Kellie Wells silver
100m h Dawn Harper bronze
400m h Lashinda Demus silver
4x100m women gold
4x400m women gold
HJ Brigetta Barrett silver
PV Jenn Suhr gold
LJ Brittney Reese gold
LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*

100m Justin Gatlin bronze*
1500m Leonel Manzano silver*
10k Galen Rupp silver
110m h Aries Merritt gold
110m h Jason Richardson silver
400m h Michael Tinsley silver*
4x400m men silver
HJ Erik Kynard silver
LJ Will Claye silver*
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
TJ Christian Taylor gold
TJ Will Claye silver
Dec Ashton Eaton gold
Dec Trey Hardee silver

*not on T&F News' list

Track & Field News' picks 29:
100m Carmelita Jeter
200m Allyson Felix
200m Carmelita Jeter
400m Sanya Richards-Ross
100m h Kellie Wells
100m h Dawn Harper
400m h Lashinda Demus
4x100m women
4x400m women
HJ Chaunté Lowe
PV Jenn Suhr
LJ Brittney Reese

100m Tyson Gay 4th
200m Wallace Spearmon 4th
400m LaShawn Merritt inj
5k Bernard Lagat 4th
10k Galen Rupp
110m h Aries Merritt
110m h Jason Richardson
400m h Angelo Taylor 5th
4x100m men through to the final
4x400m men
HJ Jesse Williams 9th
PV Brad Walker nh
TJ Christian Taylor
TJ Will Claye
SP Reese Hoffa
Dec Ashton Eaton
Dec Trey Hardee
Last edited by bushop on Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:51 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 28

Postby t_monk » Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:48 am

Falls short by one barring baton mishap?
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 28

Postby ATK » Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:50 am

t_monk wrote:Falls short by one barring baton mishap?

Marathon still tomorrow :P
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 28

Postby t_monk » Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:51 am

ATK wrote:
t_monk wrote:Falls short by one barring baton mishap?

Marathon still tomorrow :P


There is hope.... lol.... Who you have in the marathon?
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 28

Postby j-a-m » Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:51 am

t_monk wrote:Falls short by one barring baton mishap?

Destinee Hooker has won silver in volleyball, maybe you can still count her as a t&f athlete...
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 28

Postby j-a-m » Sat Aug 11, 2012 11:53 am

Six gold for the women; amazing performance.
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 29

Postby bushop » Sat Aug 11, 2012 12:26 pm

29
100m Carmelita Jeter silver
200m Allyson Felix gold
200m Carmelita Jeter bronze
400m Sanya Richards-Ross gold
400m Deedee Trotter bronze*
100m h Kellie Wells silver
100m h Dawn Harper bronze
400m h Lashinda Demus silver
4x100m women gold
4x400m women gold
HJ Brigetta Barrett silver
PV Jenn Suhr gold
LJ Brittney Reese gold
LJ Janay DeLoach bronze*

100m Justin Gatlin bronze*
1500m Leonel Manzano silver*
10k Galen Rupp silver
110m h Aries Merritt gold
110m h Jason Richardson silver
400m h Michael Tinsley silver*
4x100m men silver
4x400m men silver
HJ Erik Kynard silver
LJ Will Claye silver*
SP Reese Hoffa bronze
TJ Christian Taylor gold
TJ Will Claye silver
Dec Ashton Eaton gold
Dec Trey Hardee silver
*not on T&F News'' list

T&F News' picks 29:
100m Carmelita Jeter
200m Allyson Felix
200m Carmelita Jeter
400m Sanya Richards-Ross
100h Kellie Wells
100h Dawn Harper
400h Lashinda Demus
4x100m women
4x400m women
HJ Chaunté Lowe
PV Jenn Suhr
LJ Brittney Reese

100m Tyson Gay 4th
200m Wallace Spearmon 4th
400m LaShawn Merritt inj
5k Bernard Lagat 4th
10k Galen Rupp
110h Aries Merritt
110h Jason Richardson
400h Angelo Taylor 5th
4x100m men
4x400m men
HJ Jesse Williams 9th
PV Brad Walker nh
TJ Christian Taylor
TJ Will Claye
SP Reese Hoffa
Dec Ashton Eaton
Dec Trey Hardee
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 29

Postby aaronk » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:14 pm

Only 29!
I know, it's probably one of our best-ever showings in the OG, but we coulda shoulda woulda done even better!!

Just today alone, we missed one with Lowe, another with Montano (though she was on the edge, not quite inside, the envelope!!), and 1, 2, or even 3 with the 5K group!!

But the relay guys and gals.....in ALL FOUR relays......kept the stick in their hands......and came away with FOUR medals!!!

Will 29 be considered a "failure" by USATF??

BTW, tomorrow, Ryan Hall stands a VERY outside chance to pick up one more.....a Bronze!!
I doubt he will, but.....!!
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 29

Postby j-a-m » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:19 pm

Nine gold overall, if I've counted correctly; that's pretty good.
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 29

Postby Dutra5 » Sat Aug 11, 2012 1:48 pm

aaronk wrote:Only 29!
I know, it's probably one of our best-ever showings in the OG, but we coulda shoulda woulda done even better!!

Just today alone, we missed one with Lowe, another with Montano (though she was on the edge, not quite inside, the envelope!!), and 1, 2, or even 3 with the 5K group!!


Not sure two medals in the women's HJ is any reasonable expectation and I don't at all agree with Montano. Possible Lagat could have gotten a medal in the 5000m
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 29

Postby ATK » Sat Aug 11, 2012 2:06 pm

Dutra5 wrote:
aaronk wrote:Only 29!
I know, it's probably one of our best-ever showings in the OG, but we coulda shoulda woulda done even better!!

Just today alone, we missed one with Lowe, another with Montano (though she was on the edge, not quite inside, the envelope!!), and 1, 2, or even 3 with the 5K group!!


Not sure two medals in the women's HJ is any reasonable expectation and I don't at all agree with Montano. Possible Lagat could have gotten a medal in the 5000m

I agree, I think the US lived up to expectations.

I expected 28 medals for the games.
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 26

Postby Marlow » Sat Aug 11, 2012 4:03 pm

Marlow wrote:All the 30 takes is

Ryan Hall to medal in the Marathon!

That's eminently doable!!!
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 29

Postby bushop » Sat Aug 11, 2012 5:50 pm

Logan 'validated' by US success
August 10, 2012
"When I challenged the federation to perform up to its potential, I knew it had an Olympics like this in it. But a lot of people, including my own board members, thought I was arrogant and ill-informed."
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Re: USA's London Olympic medal count • 29

Postby bushop » Sat Aug 11, 2012 5:59 pm

Team USA takes 1 gold, 2 silver as medals surge to 29
8/11/2012
"With one road event - the men’s marathon - to be contested on Sunday, Team USA’s medal tally stands at 29 medals: nine gold, 13 silver and seven bronze. The women have accounted for 14 of those medals (6 gold, 4 silver, 4 bronze), just two behind the all-time record of 16 won at the boycotted 1984 Games."
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Re: USA's Daegu & London medalists

Postby bushop » Mon Aug 13, 2012 8:50 am

Daegu and London medalists:

17 women...
100m Carmelita Jeter
200m Carmelita Jeter
200m Allyson Felix
400m Sanya Richards-Ross
400m Allyson Felix
400m Deedee Trotter
1500m Jenny Simpson
100m h Kellie Wells
100m h Dawn Harper
400m h Lashinda Demus
4x100m women
4x400m women
HJ Brigetta Barrett
PV Jenn Suhr
LJ Brittney Reese
LJ Janay DeLoach
SP Jillian Camarena-Williams

19 men...
100m Walter Dix
100m Justin Gatlin
400m LaShawn Merritt
1500m Leonel Manzano
10k Galen Rupp
110m h Jason Richardson
110m h Aries Merritt
400m h Michael Tinsley
4x400m USA
4x100m USA
HJ Erik Kynard
HJ Jesse Williams
LJ Dwight Phillips
LJ Will Claye
SP Reese Hoffa
TJ Christian Taylor
TJ Will Claye
Deca Trey Hardee
Deca Ashton Eaton
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Re: USA's 29 Olympic medals • Moscow contenders

Postby bushop » Tue Aug 14, 2012 6:22 pm

'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years'
"Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."
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Re: USA's 29 Olympic medals • Moscow contenders

Postby aaronk » Tue Aug 14, 2012 7:06 pm

Look, whatever the goal might have been, or whatever the seers were predicting, the USA did damn well in London!!
But now, in retrospect, using hindsight (FUCK hindsight!!!!), it's easy for me to see where the USA did far WORSE than we coulda woulda shoulda have done!!! (SCREW shoulda woulda coulda!!!!)
Anyway, assuming we retain ALL 29 of our medalists next year (Goooddddd LUCK!!!!), I see an ADDITIONAL 21 (that's right, 21!!!) we CAN add to those 29 in Moscow. And this list is JUST from the London qualifiers, the ones who competed in London, but failed to medal, or even qualify for the finals.

Men

Gay in the 100
Spearmon in the 200
???? in the 400 (The USA's GOTTA have SOMEBODY in the 400 next year!!!)
Lagat AND Rupp in the 5K
Jager in the SC
Hall in the Mar
Clement AND Taylor in the 400H
Williams in the HJ
Walker in the PV
Cantwell in the SP


Women

McCorory in the 400
Montano in the 800
Uceny and Simpson in the 1500
Flanagan and Goucher in the Mar
Lowe in the HJ
JCW in the SP
SBT in the DT
Fountain in the Hept

And then there's all the guys and gals who were NOT on this year's Olympic team!!
Just off the top of my head, here's a few possibilities.

Men

Charles Jock in the 800
Robby Andrews in the 1500
Chris Solinski and Chris Derrick in the 10K
David Oliver in the 110H
Colin McCullough in the HT
Sam Crouser in the JT


Women

Jeneba Tarmoh in the 200 (Don't laugh!!)
Mary Cain (Okay, this is my "Insanity Factory" at work!!) in the 1500
Natosha Rogers in the 10K
Shelbi Vaughan in the DT

Okay, maybe we should be satisfied with 29!! :)
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Re: USA's 29 Olympic medals • Moscow contenders

Postby olorin » Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:37 am

aaronk wrote:Anyway, assuming we retain ALL 29 of our medalists next year (Goooddddd LUCK!!!!), I see an ADDITIONAL 21 (that's right, 21!!!) we CAN add to those 29 in Moscow. And this list is JUST from the London qualifiers, the ones who competed in London, but failed to medal, or even qualify for the finals.

Men

Gay in the 100
Spearmon in the 200
???? in the 400 (The USA's GOTTA have SOMEBODY in the 400 next year!!!)
Lagat AND Rupp in the 5K
Jager in the SC
Hall in the Mar
Clement AND Taylor in the 400H
Williams in the HJ
Walker in the PV
Cantwell in the SP


Women

McCorory in the 400
Montano in the 800
Uceny and Simpson in the 1500
Flanagan and Goucher in the Mar
Lowe in the HJ
JCW in the SP
SBT in the DT
Fountain in the Hept

And then there's all the guys and gals who were NOT on this year's Olympic team!!
Just off the top of my head, here's a few possibilities.

Men

Charles Jock in the 800
Robby Andrews in the 1500
Chris Solinski and Chris Derrick in the 10K
David Oliver in the 110H
Colin McCullough in the HT
Sam Crouser in the JT


Women

Jeneba Tarmoh in the 200 (Don't laugh!!)
Mary Cain (Okay, this is my "Insanity Factory" at work!!) in the 1500
Natosha Rogers in the 10K
Shelbi Vaughan in the DT

Okay, maybe we should be satisfied with 29!! :)


Your approach is wrong. What you should ask yourself is not which additional American athletes have a chance to medal but whether the US have a chance to gain more medal in each event,
For example, you mention Gay in the 100. While I agree that a healthy Gay has a chance to medal (maybe even silver) With Bolt and Blake there is no chance that the US will win two medals. Similarly, McCorory may medal in the 400, but I doubt very much that the US can clean sweep the 400 in Moscow.
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Re: USA's 29 Olympic medals • Moscow contenders

Postby MightyBurner » Wed Aug 15, 2012 6:47 am

bushop wrote:'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years'
"Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."

There are also more countries competing for medals. USATF definitely needs to do something about the field events, but I don't know what they can do.
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Re: USA's 29 Olympic medals • Moscow contenders

Postby aaronk » Wed Aug 15, 2012 12:36 pm

MightyBurner wrote:
bushop wrote:'30 Medals Is Zero Improvement Over 20 Years'
"Clearly a strategic development program aimed at improving the status of these traditionally weak events is needed. Such a program would likely result in a total medal count around 40."

There are also more countries competing for medals. USATF definitely needs to do something about the field events, but I don't know what they can do.


Here's something USATF could do:

Persuade the High School Federation (or whatever it's called) have their athletes move from the junior weights (12 lb shots, etc) and lower hurdles (39" instead of 42") to the international weights and heights for their Junior and Senior years.

Stick with the lesser weights and heights while Frosh and Sophs, then move them EXCLUSIVELY to the international weights and heights the rest of the way!!

That way, there won't be that transition period in their first year of college where they're getting used to the heavier weight implements, etc.
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