UK's Moscow medal hopes • [Eriksson's out, who's in?]

[fromage]

I quite like a bit of semantics, but perhaps I can learn the signicant difference between a medal "chance" and a medal not "expected"

On what grounds should anybody give very promising 20 y.o.Jack Green, with a best of low 49 this year, so far, and very early in his career, even the thought of remotely medalling; he only has experienced guys like Dai G, Culson, a couple of top Americans, Sanchez, Van Zyl etc. to compete with.
We have no chance , in my opinion , of a 4x400m womens Relay medal, despite last years stats about SA.
Last year our women were a distant fourth in 3.23.63 with 3 sub 51 performances from Sanders, McConnell etc; we were 4 seconds behind the Russians who had 2 sub 50 runners; the details from last year make it very, very unlikely that some 4 seconds improvement will come about but our women need, at this stage a massive improvement.

The British record of 2007, 3.20.04 , when we had two performers in outstanding form, Sanders and CO, plus McConnell who this year seems not to have done much, was still not fast enough to equal the time of the third placed Russians last year in 3.19 and bits.

Chance acc to my dictionary suggests "chance" in this context as an opportunity, possibility, not a reasonable expectation.
I reckon if Green stays fit he is a serious guy to watch for 2015 WC or Rio 2016.

[Athleticsimaging]

Given the multitude of variables in this sport, a more likely outcome in my mind is included between the [brackets]

Forget the doomsayers. GB athletes can win 16 medals at Games, says stats man
"Things are starting to look so good that I am really beginning to get scared – that I have severely underestimated our possible medal haul: 10 medals and a possible five to six more,"

Stan's 10 from 13

1 Mo Farah 5,000m [likely medallist]

2 Mo Farah 10,000m [finalist, or vice versa with the 5k]

3 Dai Greene 400m hurdles [possible finalist]

4 Jack Green 400m hurdles [aaaaaaahhhhhhhhh...NO]

5 Phillips Idowu triple jump [definite medallist]

6 Lawrence Okoye discus [possible top 8]

7 Men's 4x400m relay [NO]

8 Christine Ohuruogu 400m [likely finalist]

9 Tiffany Porter 100m hurdles [possible finalist]

10 Holly Bleasdale pole vault [possible top 8]

11 Yamile Aldama triple jump [definite top 8]

12 Jessica Ennis heptathlon [definite medallist]

13 Women's 4 x 400m relay [ahahahahahahah]

[Gabriella]

Of course home support helps and in team events like the relay it can make a big difference:

2009 Berlin
German women won 4x100 gold.

2008 Beijing
Chinese mens 4x100 made the final; women's 4x100 4th in SF narrowly missed final

2007 Osaka
Japanese mens 4x100 came 5th in the F with a NR (after a NR in the SF too)

2005 Helsinki
Finnish men 4x100 set a NR in the SF

2004 Athens
Greek women made the 4x400 final (knocking out Germany)

2003 Paris
French men won the 4x400 and women won the 4x100

etc etc etc.

As the GBR 4x400 team have medalled before or been thereabouts, there's every reason to believe that on the day, the home crowd support will lift them to get that extra bit out of their performance.
As for the 4x100 teams, this relies more on practice, but again it's not unreasonable to see them as outside chances

As an aside, Tiffany Porter and Jess Ennis have both been pencilled in as 'possibles' in the 4x1.

[norunner]

Of course home support helps and in team events like the relay it can make a big difference:

2009 Berlin
German women won 4x100 gold.

They did? I think even the Germans don't know about that one, someone ought to tell them

[John G]

A rare degree of consensus for this Board seems to have been achieved: Jack Green has no chance of a medal. Except he has always been top of my list of potential surprises. 400mH is an event where big improvements can be made in a short space of time - when a stride pattern 'clicks' or when an athlete sorts out issues with the pacing of his races. Green looked ready to go low 48s last season and with more flat speed I'm expecting him to be sub 48 this year. I also think that he'll be British #1 next year, if not this.

[mump boy]

I
Last year our women were a distant fourth .

I think it is safe to say that anyone who is ranked 4th has a medal chance

[mump boy]

I quite like a bit of semantics, but perhaps I can learn the signicant difference between a medal "chance" and a medal not "expected"

i think you need to re read my post

there is an obvious difference between a medal chance and those that are 'expected' !!

I think we have maybe 5 expected medals

Jess
Mo x 2
Phillips
Dai

and medal chances (some of them good)

Tiffany
Relays
TBO
Yamile
Holly
Lawrence
Robi
Shara

[mump boy]

Given the multitude of variables in this sport, a more likely outcome in my mind is included between the [brackets]

Forget the doomsayers. GB athletes can win 16 medals at Games, says stats man
"Things are starting to look so good that I am really beginning to get scared – that I have severely underestimated our possible medal haul: 10 medals and a possible five to six more,"

Stan's 10 from 13

1 Mo Farah 5,000m [likely medallist]

2 Mo Farah 10,000m [finalist, or vice versa with the 5k]

3 Dai Greene 400m hurdles [possible finalist]

4 Jack Green 400m hurdles [aaaaaaahhhhhhhhh...NO]

5 Phillips Idowu triple jump [definite medallist]

6 Lawrence Okoye discus [possible top 8]

7 Men's 4x400m relay [NO]

8 Christine Ohuruogu 400m [likely finalist]

9 Tiffany Porter 100m hurdles [possible finalist]

10 Holly Bleasdale pole vault [possible top 8]

11 Yamile Aldama triple jump [definite top 8]

12 Jessica Ennis heptathlon [definite medallist]

13 Women's 4 x 400m relay [ahahahahahahah]

that's just stupid

Mo is a medal favourite in both events

400H the world champions is a 'possible finalist' !!

USA is the only country with as many 400m athletes ranked as us

Tiffany is WI silver medallist, World 4th placer and ranked 6th in the world and you say 'possible' finalist !!

w4x4 isn't a medal favourite but has to be in with a chance

[Athleticsimaging]

that's just stupid

Mo is a medal favourite in both events [The chance of repeating medals is historically very low in a single event, let alone two. If Farrah medals in one event that will be an astounding effort.]

400H the world champions is a 'possible finalist' !! [see comments above on cut throat nature of getting to the final plus repeatability from year to year and the overall shittiness of this event last year.]

USA is the only country with as many 400m athletes ranked as us [doesn't matter. USA, Bahamas, Cuba. GB 4th, then DQd ]

Tiffany is WI silver medallist, World 4th placer and ranked 6th in the world and you say 'possible' finalist !! [Only dominant performers are guaranteed finals in this event and at the moment there is only Peason in this category. Porter is only as good as any of the rest and this makes her and the rest possibles only.]

w4x4 isn't a medal favourite but has to be in with a chance[OK, I'll give you that as a freebie ]

[mump boy]

that's just stupid

Mo is a medal favourite in both events [The chance of repeating medals is historically very low in a single event, let alone two. If Farrah medals in one event that will be an astounding effort.]

400H the world champions is a 'possible finalist' !! [see comments above on cut throat nature of getting to the final plus repeatability from year to year and the overall shittiness of this event last year.]

USA is the only country with as many 400m athletes ranked as us [doesn't matter. USA, Bahamas, Cuba. GB 4th, then DQd ]

Tiffany is WI silver medallist, World 4th placer and ranked 6th in the world and you say 'possible' finalist !! [Only dominant performers are guaranteed finals in this event and at the moment there is only Peason in this category. Porter is only as good as any of the rest and this makes her and the rest possibles only.]

w4x4 isn't a medal favourite but has to be in with a chance[OK, I'll give you that as a freebie ]

Wow talk about glass half empty, at your rate nobody at all is going to get a medal !!

[John G]

Can't understand people writing off the 4x400.

Have you looked at the current world rankings Athleticsimaging? The aggregate times of our 4 best is 3:00.34. The aggregate time for Bahamas is 3:00.83.

Allowing for rolling starts on 3 legs (worth approx 0.7 secs) we should be able to put out a team running low 2:58s NOW. Give them 6 more weeks to peak and add in Green and / or Greene, then add the crowd factor and we should realistically hope to run in the 3:57s. It'll be close of course with Bahamas but we are, viewed objectively, joint second favourites.

You think Cuba will challenge that? Their national record is 2:59.13.

[John G]

I quite like a bit of semantics, but perhaps I can learn the signicant difference between a medal "chance" and a medal not "expected"

i think you need to re read my post

there is an obvious difference between a medal chance and those that are 'expected' !!

I think we have maybe 5 expected medals

Jess
Mo x 2
Phillips
Dai

and medal chances (some of them good)

Tiffany
Relays
TBO
Yamile
Holly
Lawrence
Robi
Shara

I agree with this list - it's what anyone outside the Uk woudl view objectively as realistic. I think we can add Hannah England as a Daegu medalist (although I personally don't think lightening will strike twice) and Greg Rutherford as someone in the current world top 3.

On purely subjective grounds, as mentioned before, I also have a sneaking feeling for Jack Greene. I also think one day Chris Tomlinson will get a rush of blood to the head and jump 8.50. He won't know how he's done it and will never do it again but if it happens on 'the day' then who knows .. .. .. .. My other 'gut feel' is Perry S-D. She's the sort who will go from running high 54s to low 53s overnight. I also suspect she'll also be the most hyped up athlete on the planet in August (East End girl running in Hackney).

[mump boy]

I quite like a bit of semantics, but perhaps I can learn the signicant difference between a medal "chance" and a medal not "expected"

i think you need to re read my post

there is an obvious difference between a medal chance and those that are 'expected' !!

I think we have maybe 5 expected medals

Jess
Mo x 2
Phillips
Dai

and medal chances (some of them good)

Tiffany
Relays
TBO
Yamile
Holly
Lawrence
Robi
Shara

I agree with this list - it's what anyone outside the Uk woudl view objectively as realistic. I think we can add Hannah England as a Daegu medalist (although I personally don't think lightening will strike twice) and Greg Rutherford as someone in the current world top 3.

On purely subjective grounds, as mentioned before, I also have a sneaking feeling for Jack Greene. I also think one day Chris Tomlinson will get a rush of blood to the head and jump 8.50. He won't know how he's done it and will never do it again but if it happens on 'the day' then who knows .. .. .. .. My other 'gut feel' is Perry S-D. She's the sort who will go from running high 54s to low 53s overnight. I also suspect she'll also be the most hyped up athlete on the planet in August (East End girl running in Hackney).

Greg is certainly a medall possibility forgot him.

I agree about Perri but that is a purely personal opinion with no evidence at all

[peach77]

Perri is just one of those athletes you can FEEL the breakthrough coming. Believe me, sometimes that's happened with other athletes and it's never ever come, but here's hoping...

[Gabriella]

PSD's problem appears to be not having a set stride pattern. She's as fast as any of the top 400m hurdlers on the flat, it's all down to her technique and stride pattern. You need a clean run and I dont think she's had that yet. I really hope she can get it in London as the womens 400h is not on fire this year and there a number of women that can medal if they raise their game.

Look at Tasha Danvers who, while obviously fast in 2008, was not as fast as PSD is, yet she got her PB down to 53.54 in the final for bronze. That was down to taking every hurdle as good as she could.

[fromage]

Nothing like the usual OTT about our athletes chances, before a WC/OG.

On what convincing grounds this year so far can one state that CO is a medal chance. Where is the justifaction..... 50.69??? who knows what the next weeks will bring, but to tell us that CO is a medal chance... is far fetched, in my opinion, based on this years rankings . But the CO groupies keep telling us that her times are similar to previous years when she won by the narrowest of margins her Goldies. Does not follow that this year will be the same as 4 and 5 years ago.

A Jamaican, SRR , Montsho and Krivoshapka to mention 4 athletes or even at a pinch McCorory, have as much or more right to be called "medal chances" than Ohuruogu.

Holly Bleasdale will need to improve to 4.70m consistency to be a medal chance, in my opinion, and I see her at her best as a Finalist or top 8.

[Gabriella]

Of the big races this year in terms of 400m fields, we've had 5 strong meets: Shanghai, Kingston, Eugene, Ostrava and NY. The results have been:

Shanghai
Williams-Mills, Montsho

Kingston
Williams-Mills, SRR, Ohuruogo, Whyte

Eugene
SRR, Montsho, Williams-Mills, McCrory

Ostrava
SRR, Ohuruogu,

NY
McCrory, Williams-Mills, Whyte, Ohuruogu

Only Williams-Mills, SRR and Montsho have shown consistent form over Christine. This is early season for Europeans, but not foe the US and caribbean athletes so you would expect CO to be behind. But she's still beeen very competitive, run faster at this stage in the season then any other year, and is defending champion on home soil. She has to be considered.

[mump boy]

Of course she has to be considered, she is faster at this stage of the year than ever before and is the only athlete mentioned who can be guaranteed to raise her game at the champs.

She has set a seasons best in every champs she has ever taken part in


2009 50.21 Berlin 18/08/2009
2008 49.62 Beijing (National Stadium) 19/08/2008
2007 49.61 Osaka 29/08/2007
2006 50.28 Melbourne 21/03/200
2005 50.73 Erfurt 16/07/2005 (when coming 2nd at Eu23's)
2004 50.50 Athína (Olympic Stadium) 21/08/2004

More than i can say for Krivoshapka who i would suggest is highly unlikely to match her recent 49.40 in London

[bushop]

"There could be a major casualty:" Andy Turner predicts big name could miss out at Olympic trials
"Dwain Chambers, Mark Lewis-Francis, Nicola Sanders, Jenny Meadows and Lisa Dobriskey are among the big names in real danger of missing out. Andy Turner is far from safe himself. "Selection is not a given this year," admitted the European and Commonwealth gold medalist. "We're going to have to really fight for our spots. There could be a major casualty."

[IanS_Liv]

More than i can say for Krivoshapka who i would suggest is highly unlikely to match her recent 49.40 in London

I know it's unlikely but I would love AK49 to win (if TBO doesn't that is). Purely to buck the trend.

Oh, and that article is right I think, Bushop. I have a feeling this is going to be a fairly new team. MLF and Devonish are unlikely to make the relay squad.

[mump boy]

More than i can say for Krivoshapka who i would suggest is highly unlikely to match her recent 49.40 in London

I know it's unlikely but I would love AK49 to win (if TBO doesn't that is). Purely to buck the trend.

Oh, and that article is right I think, Bushop. I have a feeling this is going to be a fairly new team. MLF and Devonish are unlikely to make the relay squad.

I don't really expect any of the people mentioned to be on the team but i would ALWAYS have Marlon on the 3rd leg of the relay we have no one to compare

[John G]

Nothing like the usual OTT about our athletes chances, before a WC/OG.

On what convincing grounds this year so far can one state that CO is a medal chance. Where is the justifaction..... 50.69??? who knows what the next weeks will bring, but to tell us that CO is a medal chance... is far fetched, in my opinion, based on this years rankings . But the CO groupies keep telling us that her times are similar to previous years when she won by the narrowest of margins her Goldies. Does not follow that this year will be the same as 4 and 5 years ago.

A Jamaican, SRR , Montsho and Krivoshapka to mention 4 athletes or even at a pinch McCorory, have as much or more right to be called "medal chances" than Ohuruogu.

Presumably, had you been Finnish in the mid-70s you would have writing off Viren as a medal chance for Montreal. There are some athletes who are proven big-time performers. Based upon past experience we know that if CO is running 50.6 before a champs, she's likely to be running 49.6 in the champs. That gives you a medal chance.

(Experience also tells us that Russians run low 49.x before a champs but rarely match that sort of time when it matters).

[peach77]

Pity the fool who EVER writes off The Big O...

[fromage]

WTF does that mean " write off" Just because you and a few others are placing medals round CO' s neck means b*gger all to me.
She may get into the final but I and you dont know... And to think that John G knows she is likely to be running 49.6... and therefore is a medal prospect... how does anybody know such things???

It aint 2007 and it aint 2008 and my opinion is CO will not medal this time round.

[fortyacresandamule]

The only sure medals for the UK is Mo Farah and Ennis. I reckon due to home advantage they will win 5 medals in total.

1. MO (x2)

2. J. Ennis

3. P. Idowu

4. 4x4 ( mens)

[Flumpy]

WTF does that mean " write off" Just because you and a few others are placing medals round CO' s neck means b*gger all to me.
She may get into the final but I and you dont know... And to think that John G knows she is likely to be running 49.6... and therefore is a medal prospect... how does anybody know such things???

It aint 2007 and it aint 2008 and my opinion is CO will not medal this time round.

But precisely no one has predicted a medal for TBO. It's simply been suggested that she has a chance, which she does, along with many other people.

[Flumpy]

The only sure medals for the UK is Mo Farah and Ennis. I reckon due to home advantage they will win 5 medals in total.

Well if that's the case I don't think much of home advntage. We got 7 in Daegu last year

[shivfan]

The trials are June 22-24, aren't they?

Will the Beeb be carrying it?

[Flumpy]

It's on Sat and Sun but not a lot.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/athletics/15971129

I'm guessing it's on the Red Button or something.

[peach77]

But precisely no one has predicted a medal for TBO. It's simply been suggested that she has a chance, which she does, along with many other people.

THIS

As fans of GB Athletics, we're (I think I presume for many others here) are excited by the form of Christine this year as she's looked better than she has most years at this stage of the season. You should never write her off- I remember being on this forum in 2008 when so many were saying it just weeks before the Beijing Olympics and look what happened there.

We're FAR from saying she's a medal certainty, absolutely not, there's a mountain to climb yet, but is she a medal chance? ABSOLUTELY...

[fromage]

If chance means "opportunity" then a dozen have the opportunity of a medal; any fan can talk "chance" and "maybe", "can" and is "capable of"; how many of the UK fans here actually believe that CO will get a medal in the 400m at the OG.

If I am wrong I will be happy to eat humble pie, but the fans who make hyped up predictions, when they are wrong never say a bloody word. Like the notorious Isabre e.g.
Put your predictions on line, fans; I do not think that she will Medal and this opinion is permitted, I believe; please let us not turn TFN Message Board in to an AW MB, thank you.

What the heck is Viren in the 70s, who was blood doping almost certainly when it was not banned, to do with CO 's chances. Weird!!

[John G]

What the heck is Viren in the 70s, who was blood doping almost certainly when it was not banned, to do with CO 's chances. Weird!!

My next sentence read: "There are some athletes who are proven big-time performers". That's why you don't write them off - regardless of what they do in the lead up to the champs.

[John G]

If chance means "opportunity" then a dozen have the opportunity of a medal; any fan can talk "chance" and "maybe", "can" and is "capable of";

And that's exactly what has been the point of this discussion. The clue is in the title: "UK's London Olympic medal contenders" not "UK's London Olympic medal predictions".

If you want predictions, along with most others I think we're looking at Mo x 2; Jess; Phillips; Dai. Given the number of other contenders I think we'll grab a 6th - best bet Robbie Grabarz or M4x400.

[peach77]

Having just received an email from UK Athletics (who SHOULD know better) in which it was encouraging me to buy Olympic Trials tickets just to see Adam Gemili, you then get ABSOLUTE NONSENSE articles like this on the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18527642

We're all excited about the boy, but come on, no wonder people burn out early and get too much pressure too soon...

It makes me SO angry!

[norunner]

Having just received an email from UK Athletics (who SHOULD know better) in which it was encouraging me to buy Olympic Trials tickets just to see Adam Gemili, you then get ABSOLUTE NONSENSE articles like this on the BBC

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/olympics/18527642

We're all excited about the boy, but come on, no wonder people burn out early and get too much pressure too soon...

It makes me SO angry!

If he can't take the pressure now he won't be able to do so later. I wonder what jamaican newspapers wrote about Bolt after he ran a 19.93 at the age of 17.