UK's Beijing medal hopes •


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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby 7-sided » Fri Apr 08, 2011 9:06 am

mump boy wrote:I don't see any reason why TBO couldn't medal, she was injured in 09 yet still came 5th at the WC why wouldn't she get back to sub 50 this year and next ?

Apart from '83 49.60 has always won a medal at the world champs (and has often won) she's only 26 i can only see improvement coming

True, but we're talking about the Olympics. Now, your point still holds for the most part but she doesn't want to repeat history from Atlanta in London where 4th place was 49.28.

26, I'm not sure where the comparison should be (sub-43 or sub-42), but I just "feel" that they're underperforming. That's why I wondered if sub-43 (never been done by a man) is more closely related to sub-48 (which would mean that Bryzgina and Koch are way AHEAD of the men). That said, I have to believe that it's not related and that it is probably closer to sub-44 = sub-49 and sub-45 = sub-50 if we use complete integers. Only 66 women have broken 50 without breaking 49 (I counted 100 from the IAAF's top lists and it only goes to 44.77 for the men and it doesn't include Bartholomew's 44 from 2 weeks ago; needless to say it's likely more than twice what the women have achieved) that's a relatively low number. Again, I just "feel" that the women are not pushing hard enough or being pushed hard enough. the IAAF scoring tables, which is just a guide for testing this hypothesis, somewhat (used very loosely) confirms it.

46.67 - 1319 - 42.90 >> No men nor women have approached this
-------- 1300 - 43.18 >> WR
47.60 - 1286 - >> WR
47.79 - 1279 - 43.50 >> 1 woman and 4 men
48.72 - 1246 - 44.00 >> 7 women and 9 men
49.30 - 1226 - 44.30 >> 21 women and 31 men
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby bushop » Mon Apr 11, 2011 4:12 pm

Posted: Monday 11th April 2011
LONDON 2012: Team GB athletics medal target is tough ask, says Edwards
Jonathan Edwards wrote:I absolutely don’t think that we’ve got 15 medal contenders for London or for the World Championships, so I think the conversion rate that Charles is looking at is very high.

Posted: Saturday 2nd April 2011
Van Commenee upbeat but not complacent about Olympic medal chances
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby bushop » Mon Apr 11, 2011 4:30 pm

2007 Worlds • Osaka
400m Christine Ohuruogu Image gold
400m Nicola Sanders Image silver
4x100m men Great Britain and N.I. Image bronze
4x400m women Great Britain and N.I. Image bronze
heptathlon Kelly Sotherton Image bronze

2008 Olympics • Peking
400m Christine Ohuruogu Image gold
400m hurdles Tasha Danvers Image bronze
high jump Germaine Mason Image silver
triple jump Phillips Idowu Image silver

2009 Worlds • Berlin
800m Jennifer Meadows Image bronze
1500m Lisa Dobriskey Image silver
4x100m men Great Britain and N.I. Image bronze
4x400m men Great Britain and N.I. Image silver
triple jump Phillips Idowu Image gold
heptathlon Jessica Ennis Image gold
Last edited by bushop on Tue Apr 12, 2011 5:18 am, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby mump boy » Tue Apr 12, 2011 12:50 am

bushop wrote:2007 Worlds • Osaka
400m Christine Ohuruogu Image gold
400m Nicola Sanders Image silver

2008 Olympics • Peking
high jump Germaine Mason Image silver
triple jump Phillips Idowu Image silver
400m Christine Ohuruogu Image gold
400m hurdles Tasha Danvers Image bronze

2009 Worlds • Berlin
800m Jennifer Meadows Image bronze
1500m Lisa Dobriskey Image silver
heptathlon Jessica Ennis Image gold
triple jump Phillips Idowu Image gold


What's point of this post ? You've misses Kelly Sotherton's bronze in Osaka and relay medals from both world champs
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby Powell » Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:03 am

mump boy wrote:What's point of this post ?


It was just an excuse to put a lot of those cute little flags in a post.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby bushop » Tue Apr 12, 2011 4:14 am

Powell wrote:
mump boy wrote:What's point of this post ? You've misses Kelly Sotherton's bronze in Osaka and relay medals from both world champs
It was just an excuse to put a lot of those cute little flags in a post.
Love the flags, any color in these posts is nice. The medal information puts the goal of 'eight medals' and the need for '17 or 18 medal contenders' into a historical context... how the Brits have done on the medal stand in recent international championships.... and thanks for the corrections/ additions.
Last edited by bushop on Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:26 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby PCSExponent » Tue Apr 12, 2011 4:27 am

It's a pet peeve of mine when the relay medals are put on the same pedestal as individual medals, and when stated are goals are to get X medals. A relay medal isn't - and will never be - equal to an ind. medal. Surely it is worth somewhere between 1/3 (1 entrance per nation vs. 3 athletes per nation) and 200/7,000,000,000 (rough estimate of number of nations vs. world population) of an individual medal ??? Get along with the plan and state your bloody goals as number of individual medals. On topic, the UK would do extremely well to walk away with 5 individual medal.
ETA - or is it GBR? Another pet-peeve of mine :twisted:
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby jjimbojames » Tue Apr 12, 2011 4:31 am

CVC will definitely include relays in his target - he doesn't see them as a 'soft' option - and I think he'd expect the m4x4 to be a definite medal contender, and the others finalists, with varying chances of medals (I think the w4x400 will come good, IMO). If you add in them, GBR are on six from Berlin and improved from Osaka - suggesting whilst eight will be a tough ask, it's not entirely out of the question
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby jjimbojames » Tue Apr 12, 2011 4:34 am

bushop wrote:thanks for the corrections/ additions.

Still need to add m4x1 bronze from Osaka :wink:
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby mump boy » Tue Apr 12, 2011 5:12 am

PCSExponent wrote:It's a pet peeve of mine when the relay medals are put on the same pedestal as individual medals, and when stated are goals are to get X medals. A relay medal isn't - and will never be - equal to an ind. medal. Surely it is worth somewhere between 1/3 (1 entrance per nation vs. 3 athletes per nation) and 200/7,000,000,000 (rough estimate of number of nations vs. world population) of an individual medal ??? Get along with the plan and state your bloody goals as number of individual medals. On topic, the UK would do extremely well to walk away with 5 individual medal.
ETA - or is it GBR? Another pet-peeve of mine :twisted:


So should team medals in cycling not count, maybe the 8 in rowing is only worth 12.5% or individual rowers. Maybe no team sports should be played at all :?
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Apr 12, 2011 6:47 am

Cycling is an odd 'bird', in two ways. First, it was 'amateur' until 1996 and is still a sport where Olympic Medals are not so important (except track). Second, while track makes up only a small portion of cycling, it makes up a disproportionate share of medals; Mountain biking is a bit the same.


Jazz, and comments?
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby bushop » Tue Apr 12, 2011 9:45 am

UK sporting bodies indulge in athletics target practice
By Simon Hart Olympics Last updated: April 12th, 2011
"The much-publicised 2012 “target” of 10 British track and field medals set by UK Athletics chief executive Niels de Vos 18 months ago was not, apparently, a target at all."
Last edited by bushop on Thu Nov 17, 2011 6:57 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby PCSExponent » Tue Apr 12, 2011 10:05 am

mump boy wrote:So should team medals in cycling not count, maybe the 8 in rowing is only worth 12.5% or individual rowers. Maybe no team sports should be played at all :?


You seem to be referring to things I know very little about - I know that there are things that people call "sports" and are not track & field, but I know very little about those. Anyway, I don't really care about medal tables (by nations), but when discussing these tables people tend to lump relay and individual medals together, and that just doesn't make sense. Again, my comment was about medal tables in T&F.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby mump boy » Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:29 pm

PCSExponent wrote:
mump boy wrote:So should team medals in cycling not count, maybe the 8 in rowing is only worth 12.5% or individual rowers. Maybe no team sports should be played at all :?


You seem to be referring to things I know very little about - I know that there are things that people call "sports" and are not track & field, but I know very little about those. Anyway, I don't really care about medal tables (by nations), but when discussing these tables people tend to lump relay and individual medals together, and that just doesn't make sense. Again, my comment was about medal tables in T&F.


if you don't care about medal tables (by nation) why are you commenting in this thread :?
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby PCSExponent » Tue Apr 12, 2011 2:54 pm

mump boy wrote:if you don't care about medal tables (by nation) why are you commenting in this thread :?


I am interested in other people's take on quite a few of the athletes mentioned. Whether said athletes end up switching nationalities or whether GBR get to put an X or Y under their total tally in the games makes no difference to me.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby 72 » Tue Apr 12, 2011 10:51 pm

I would have thought that the Medal Tables which are rolled out throughout the world at most important sporting events, but especially at each OG, are merely a sympton of either a rather fatheaded Nationalism, so beloved of certain people and above all the frigging Media; telling us not too much about a countries sporting prowess, anyway. The USA tops the OG Table almost invariably acc to the American Media who twisted the accepted ranking( Golds first and then Medal totals) at Beijing to suit their need to tell their folks" we are the best" :evil:

A country of 320 Million people ought to do better than a country such as Australia with a population of 17 million. China and the USA are not much at International Sport per head of population.??

All we grasp from the OG Medal Table is that specified countries are rather good at one or more specific sports, which they support with a lot of cash apart from any other reason.

A sign of national paranoia is the silly but fascinating Virtual Medal Table in the London Times at monthly intervals telling all those who may or may not be interested what the Medal Table Ranking will be on August 13 ,2012.!!!
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby bushop » Thu Apr 21, 2011 5:28 pm

Another one for the British medal contenders list?
Cox to switch allegiance from Image to Image

Coach Dick criticizes current British coaching model leading up to the Games:
Frank Dick’s Vision for Coaching
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby bushop » Wed May 25, 2011 3:12 pm

Charles van Commenee steps up demands on British athletes in countdown to Games
“As a team, it’s a year when you must try to get more athletes in the medal zone,” he said. “What I’m looking for is more athletes who could come close to medals — whether they finish fourth or fifth or whatever. I want them to almost touch the rostrum at world level..."
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby Daisy » Wed May 25, 2011 4:20 pm

bushop wrote:Charles van Commenee steps up demands on British athletes in countdown to Games

It seems likely that they are working as hard as they can already. Does he really think this kind of bluster is going to make them any better? If anything, they'll over train and end up injured.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby mojo » Wed May 25, 2011 6:11 pm

bushop wrote:Another one for the British medal contenders list?
Cox to switch allegiance from Image to Image

Coach Dick criticizes current British coaching model leading up to the Games:
Frank Dick’s Vision for Coaching



THANK YOU for posting the link to Frank Dick's interview! I have read a few other articles by him and always agree with him. He is spot on about the disruption, really the severance, of the athlete -coach relationship that these highly paid coaches are doing.
Sounds like what is happening here in Canada is what the Brits are experiencing. Club level coaches (who are often just as educated and knowledgeable) as the paid coahces feel what is the point? They work their way up along with their athletes only to be bumped out of the picture...it leads to very low spirits in the rank and file, weakens the club system and many volunteers just walk away from the sport. Must find a way to write Mr. Dick and congratulate him for getting what is going on.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby bushop » Wed Jun 08, 2011 8:04 am

Brits have work to do ahead of Games
"The UK Athletics head coach, Charles van Commenee, admits Britain’s athletes would not be ready if the Olympic Games were held this year..."
Last edited by bushop on Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:39 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Jun 08, 2011 9:31 am

7-sided wrote:-Farah can medal; I don't think he will, but he can - so I'll give him one

Gabs: 06.) Mo Farah (5k | 10k) - outside chance of a medal, but I can't really see anyone breaking Africa.


Have you guys revised your 'priors' at all given the spring of racing from Mo? And which do you think is the better bet (I am think 10,000 where he has a good enough kick there but the 5000 is likely to be faster, and it looks like he can hang on any pace up to about 26:40 (weather, adjusted, of course, but that should be an issue for Daegu but less likely in London). And, he will have even more of a home crowd than he had in Eugene, but he definitely had a home crowd there.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders [?]

Postby John G » Wed Jun 08, 2011 9:34 am

26mi235 wrote:
7-sided wrote:-Farah can medal; I don't think he will, but he can - so I'll give him one

Gabs: 06.) Mo Farah (5k | 10k) - outside chance of a medal, but I can't really see anyone breaking Africa.


Have you guys revised your 'priors' at all given the spring of racing from Mo? And which do you think is the better bet (I am think 10,000 where he has a good enough kick there but the 5000 is likely to be faster, and it looks like he can hang on any pace up to about 26:40 (weather, adjusted, of course, but that should be an issue for Daegu but less likely in London). And, he will have even more of a home crowd than he had in Eugene, but he definitely had a home crowd there.


Defo the 10k. Only Bekele, Sihine and Tadese of the currently active athletes have faster PBs than Mo.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby 72 » Wed Jun 08, 2011 11:08 am

If a week is a long time in politics then 13 months is a very long time for things to happen in Track and Field.

As far as London OG is concerned any comments about GBs likely medal haul by CVC is fairly ill advised, but the talk of 8 or 10 medals in track seems over ambitious to me.

Ennis, Idowu,Greene,Rutherford???,Meadows,Farah I regard as possible medals , but I do not see our Relay teams as medallists unless amazing co ck ups happen by other teams. I picked Rutherford, as a freaky medal is a fair bet so I picked him.

If I was at the bookies I would place a bet on 4 individual medals.

By next July I may be writing something a little different.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby IanS_Liv » Wed Jun 08, 2011 4:20 pm

Just caught up on this thread. Have I missed an announcement about Andy Baddeley moving to the steeplechase? I agree that he has potential as a 1:46, 3:34 and 13:20 (run in off-season) guy. But I haven't seen anything about him switching events.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby bushop » Wed Jun 08, 2011 5:27 pm

IanS_Liv wrote:Just caught up on this thread. Have I missed an announcement about Andy Baddeley moving to the steeplechase? I agree that he has potential as a 1:46, 3:34 and 13:20 (run in off-season) guy. But I haven't seen anything about him switching events.

I think I found some info about him steepling... I can change it... what to?
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby IanS_Liv » Wed Jun 08, 2011 5:34 pm

Where did you see that? Otherwise I'd have him down as a 1500m finalist rather than a medal hope.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby bushop » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:43 am

Coach denies 'Plastic Brits' are using GB to fulfil Olympic dream
"... the headline in one newspaper earlier this week: "Plastic Brits are using Team GB to fulfil their own Olympic dreams." The newspaper added: "Team GB's cheating is more a convenient manipulation of the rules, coming together with our colonial past, to create the option of securing the best of America's cast-offs plus the odd Caribbean ringer."
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby bushop » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:49 am

Van Commenee attacks Idowu for tweeting GB team pull-out
"Asked whether he might still be in charge, Van Commenee, whose contract expires after the London Olympics, said: "Absolutely. It is certainly my intention to hit the target at the Games [a tally of eight medals], and then we can talk about me staying. But certainly it is my ambition. A lot of jobs depend on success or failure in 2012, so hopefully if we do well then everybody can carry on."

No relationship with 'liar' Van Commenee - Phillips Idowu
But the British triple jumper Phillips Idowu says he informed UK Athletics and Van Commenee's staff before informing his followers on the social networking site.

UK Athletics boss Van Commenee criticises Idowu tweet
"These things are done personally, there are certain channels you have to follow," said Charles van Commenee. "I expect somebody with such a profile to follow these procedures."
Last edited by bushop on Sat Jun 18, 2011 5:24 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby shivfan » Sat Jun 18, 2011 7:55 am

bushop wrote:Coach denies 'Plastic Brits' are using GB to fulfil Olympic dream
"... the headline in one newspaper earlier this week: "Plastic Brits are using Team GB to fulfil their own Olympic dreams." The newspaper added: "Team GB's cheating is more a convenient manipulation of the rules, coming together with our colonial past, to create the option of securing the best of America's cast-offs plus the odd Caribbean ringer."

There's Michael Bingham, Tiffany Ofili and Shana Cox from the US, Shara Proctor from Anguilla (but that probably doesn't really count), and according to an interview with CVC, some triple-jumper whose switching allegiances from Jamaica to Britain. I didn't catch the name - was it something like Green? Do you know who it is?
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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby mump boy » Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:12 am

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Re: UK's London Olympics medal contenders

Postby bushop » Sat Jun 18, 2011 8:38 am

Britain ready to lay down gauntlet to Russia in Stockholm this weekend
"When we travel out we should always try to win it...," Van Commenee remains quietly satisfied about the improvement in his athletes in the run-up to the Olympics... "We are heading in the right direction. We've had quite a few interesting performances already this early season, with Greg Rutherford, Dai Greene, Jenny Meadows, Mo Farah, Jessica Ennis. So it's quite good, but it would be too soon if the Games were played this year. We do need those 14 months to build the team stronger and I know from experience you can do amazing things in 12 months,"
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Re: UK's London Olympic contenders [van Commenee v. Idowu]

Postby shivfan » Sun Jun 19, 2011 12:53 am

Thanks for that, mumps....

Julian Reid, eh? I must admit, I haven't heard of him.

It's a strange decision for Reid to make, because Britain already have some useful triple and long jumpers. But Jamaica don't have any of significance....

As for the CVC vs Idowu is concerned, I feel it's much ado about nothing. I don't know why CVC is making such a fuss over Idowu's withdrawal from this minor competition. Surely, getting a gold medal at the World Champs is a higher priority? If CVC keeps on this track, calling Idowu a 'clown' for using twitter, he's only going to succeed in upsetting Idowu's preparations for Daegu.
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Re: UK's London Olympic contenders [van Commenee v. Idowu]

Postby mump boy » Sun Jun 19, 2011 4:36 am

shivfan wrote:Thanks for that, mumps....

Julian Reid, eh? I must admit, I haven't heard of him.

It's a strange decision for Reid to make, because Britain already have some useful triple and long jumpers. But Jamaica don't have any of significance....

As for the CVC vs Idowu is concerned, I feel it's much ado about nothing. I don't know why CVC is making such a fuss over Idowu's withdrawal from this minor competition. Surely, getting a gold medal at the World Champs is a higher priority? If CVC keeps on this track, calling Idowu a 'clown' for using twitter, he's only going to succeed in upsetting Idowu's preparations for Daegu.


couldn't agree more although to be fair CVC didn't make much of a fuss just answered a question put to him by BBC and he wasn't directly talking about Phillips but about the whole culture of Twitter. OF course then Phillips went on radio and said his piece and the BBC spent all afternoon talking about this crap instead of showing action :x :x

They all need to grow up in my opionion
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Re: UK's London Olympic contenders [van Commenee v. Idowu]

Postby bushop » Mon Jun 20, 2011 5:32 am

Van Commenee pledges to resolve bitter Idowu row
"It was not exactly a peace in our time declaration but at the end of the European Team Championships here yesterday Charles van Commenee pledged to bring an end to the Great British Twitter War that has cast an embarrassing shadow over the British squad's time in the Swedish capital..."
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Re: UK's London Olympic contenders [van Commenee v. Idowu]

Postby tandfman » Mon Jun 20, 2011 6:23 pm

shivfan wrote:Julian Reid, eh? I must admit, I haven't heard of him.

Third in the NCAA triple jump in Des Moines. Second two years ago.
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Re: UK's London Olympic contenders

Postby bushop » Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:49 pm

'Plastic Brits' just one of the headaches for UK head coach
"In addition to a certain public antipathy towards the athletes, UK Athletics head coach Charles van Commenee has also been criticised for what the Britain's 2010 Sports Writer of the Year Martin Samuel referred to in the Daily Mail on Monday as: "His practice of snapping up fringe athletes from rival nations to run beneath the Team GB banner."
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Re: UK's London Olympic contenders

Postby bushop » Fri Jun 24, 2011 5:56 pm

Julian Reid switch reignites allegiance controversy
"It is understood that he may have to wait a while before he can represent Britain at a major championships, but he could compete at smaller international meetings – such as the European Team Championships – as soon as next year. The World Championships in Daegu this year may come too soon, but his eligibility could be finalised before the London 2012 Olympics."
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Re: UK's London Olympic contenders

Postby bushop » Sun Jun 26, 2011 6:32 pm

Losing my record to a Plastic Brit has left me devastated
"Angela Thorp is what you might call the collateral damage of Van Commenee’s self-serving recruitment policy: a Yorkshire girl who dedicated her life to athletics, and whose greatest achievement has now been erased by a Plastic Brit passing through our sport for purely selfish reasons."
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Re: UK's London Olympic medal contenders

Postby bushop » Wed Jul 06, 2011 11:27 am

Olympics 2012: How many medals is home cooking worth?
"Which begs the question: just how many more medals can a home country expect when hosting an Olympic Games?
The answer is – unless you’re the United States – quite a few more..."
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