Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"


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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby TrainerPhil » Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:53 am

bushop wrote:I'd like to see the tiers sorted so:

tier 1: possible gold medalist
tier 2; possible medalist
tier 3: possible finalist
tier 4: possible semi-finalist

... in a major championship that season.


Using this tier system:

100m

Tier 1 - Bolt and Gay
Tier 2 - Powell, Blake, Carter, Dix, Thompson (I think all 4 could medal under the right circumstance)
Tier 3 - Lemaitre, D. Bailey, R. Bailey, Kimmons, Padget, Rodgers, Gatlin (I think the 8th finalist comes from this group)

Tier 4 - everyone else including Frater and Forsthye who won't make it out of National qualifying.

200m

Tier 1 - Bolt
Tier 2 - Gay, Spearmon, Dix, Blake (Bolt has gold locked up, the other medals will come from these 4 guys)
Tier 3 - Everyone else
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:33 am

26mi235 wrote:
7-sided wrote:10.09 (1.0) 1 Aix-les-Bains 1-May
10.24 (-2.2) 1 Vénissieux 9-May
10.03 (0.6) 1 Franconville 23-May
10.09 (0.6) 2 Roma 10-Jun [Powell]
10.02 (1.1) 2 Bergen 19-Jun [Chambers]
10.15 (1.2) 1h1 Valence 8-Jul


If we end his season here do you maintain that he is better and consistently so, than Gatlin? This is where Gatlin is in his season, five or so races. Did L do any better against common opponents? If not, you are seduced by number without making any systematic effort to assess those numbers. Whatever you do, no not go into economics, you would make a poor one because you cannot work out what the numbers mean.

26, it shocks me the a phd-level economist would make such an accuasation without first doing his research. Look at the numbers that you quoted above! Nearly ALL of the times are superior to anything that Gatlin has run this year! Even the 10.24 (-2.2) converts to a "basic" better than Gatlin's SB! Yet, I'm "seduced by the numbers..."? I have no idea who would win if they raced this year - it's close - but, on balance of this season the numbers suggest that Lemaitre would beat Gatlin. So, how about you stop with the "Gatlin had a slow track..." and "Gatlin had no competition..." talk because Lemaitre's early season was a diet of those same tracks and LESS competition!

I have the following results for Gatlin in 2010. How are these better than the "artificially truncated" season you have introduced for Lemaitre?

Gatlin 2010 [basic times]
10.34 (-1.7) [10.23]
10.24 (-0.6) [10.20] Samuels
10.19 (2.3) [10.30]
10.28 (-2.0) [10.15]
10.17 (1.0) [10.22]
10.09 (0.9) [10.13] Blake
10.15 (0.4) [10.17] Frater, Ashmeade

Gatlin's "basic" avg for best 5 = 10.17 (I threw out his worst 2); Lemaitre's "basic" best 5 avg (your #'s!) = 10.10; 10.12 for all 6. Ordinal, cardinal, basic, actual (I'm sure you know a few more...)...whichever way you want to measure it!! Also, I am not sure if you noticed, but you took the SLOWEST time from Valence which was his opening heat at French Champs. His semi? 10.05 (0.0); final = 9.98 (1.3). If we use THAT semi as his seventh race to "equal" Gatlin's 7 races, his best-5 race average drops to 10.08 (it was 10.078 but I kept with "electronic timing" protocols :wink: ); 10.106 [10.11 :wink: ] if I use all 7 times!

I would have hoped that you would have been a hell of a lot better at anyalyzing sprints than I would be at economics, but it appears that we would BOTH be completely out of our element. Stick with economics; those numbers suit you better, because you've certainly made a mess of these! Or claim that one of your students hacked your account! :lol:
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Sep 07, 2010 6:41 am

I think that L is likely to beat Gatlin at this stage (i.e., if they race Saturday), although I am not sure that it is a foregone conclusion. I do not think that the gap is real wide and I expect both sprinters to raise their game further as they 1) continue to evolve; and 2) return to previous form. I am surprised how little folks seem to care that winners have some special element that gets them where they need to be and of the various athletes listed here only Gay and Bolt can hold a candle to Gatlin in that regard, the rest are not in the same league at all -- whether Gatlin can return to that league I am not at all sure, I just think that too many opinions of his abilities are colored by what the poster would like to be the case rather than objectively think will be the case.

Of course, the 100 and even 200 are different events than when Gatlin left the scene, so it could be argued that he had that something special to win at a lower level NCAA/WC/OG set of contests. Another thing that Gatlin has that none of the others in the running for Tiers 2/3/4 is that he has shown a versatility and athleticism by being a very good hurdler in his early years. To me his form looks rough still (but I am not much of an expert on sprint form) and when he gets things like that back he will pick up time that most of his competition for 2/3/4 do not have for 'easy pickings'. My guess is that next year he might be able to beat all of the non-Bolt/Gay crowd at least once if racing a normal schedule (which he will likely not get a chance to do), although those at the top might be out of reach, especially if they pick up another notch.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Tue Sep 07, 2010 6:58 am

26mi235 wrote:My guess is that next year he might be able to beat all of the non-Bolt/Gay crowd at least once if racing a normal schedule (which he will likely not get a chance to do), although those at the top might be out of reach, especially if they pick up another notch.

OK now your just out of your mind. There is no way Gatlin is beating a fully fit Powell Carter Dix or Blake...No way...
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Tue Sep 07, 2010 7:37 am

26mi235 wrote:My guess is that next year he might be able to beat all of the non-Bolt/Gay crowd at least once if racing a normal schedule (which he will likely not get a chance to do), although those at the top might be out of reach, especially if they pick up another notch.

Gatlin won't beat Powell at any point next year; imo, he won't get within .10 in the same race. And, though Dix, Carter and Blake are far less consistent than the Big-3, they will also take the measure of Gatlin on a regular basis. Now, anything is possible, but I would be surprised if Gatlin ran sub-9.93 in 2011 and I believe that all the others will. I don't see it as Gatlin not getting a chance to run (because of meet directors ban), I see it that he hasn't earned his way into DL big meets yet, so it's not like he is being punished here! For the moment he is nearly a 10.20 "basic" runner. That's the "Mendoza Line" for elite sprinters! There are a lot of athletes who never [cheated/got caught] who deserve those lanes before Gatlin and I hope that meet directors take note of that in 2011. If he opens up with 9.93 (-0.4), more power to him, but until he breaks 10.00, he shouldn't even make the B-race for a DL meet.

It looks very likely that the Prefontaine meet will be the first DL to break the embargo and allow a cheat of Gatlins profile to run (other cheats have run in DL meets, but there seems to be an excuse based upon possible press coverage). If they do that than Jordan should make sure that the race is on Dwain Chambers schedule as well. It would be more interesting, for me, to know how Gatlin stacks up against Chambers than he does against the other athletes.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Sep 07, 2010 8:10 am

7-sided wrote:
26mi235 wrote:My guess is that next year he might be able to beat all of the non-Bolt/Gay crowd [I generally had AP in Tier 1 or 1A, just to clarify] at least once if racing a normal schedule (which he will likely not get a chance to do), although those at the top might be out of reach, especially if they pick up another notch.

And, though Dix, Carter and Blake are far less consistent than the Big-3, they will also take the measure of Gatlin on a regular basis. Now, anything is possible, but I would be surprised if Gatlin ran sub-9.93 in 2011 and I believe that all the others will.

...For the moment he is nearly a 10.20 "basic" runner.
On slower tracks and generally under slower conditions. I [would guess that he] likely would already be sub-10 on a 30 deg [C], top-level track with a following wind, and close to 10-flat [basic] on such a track.

It will be interesting to return to this tread next August.

[sorry, I got interrupted when posting and just hit Submit as it would be a while before I would get back to it. :oops: 8-); besides, does 26mi... seem like a sprinter's handle?]
Last edited by 26mi235 on Tue Sep 07, 2010 11:03 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby TrainerPhil » Tue Sep 07, 2010 10:40 am

26mi235 wrote:On slower tracks and generally under slower conditions. I likely would already be sub-10 on a 30 deg, top-level track with a following wind, and close to 10-flat on such a track.

It will be interesting to return to this tread next August.


Justin, is that you?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Giant Panda » Tue Sep 07, 2010 12:03 pm

So Gatlin just was involved in a photo finish with Mike Rodgers, and beat Dwain Chambers by a metre.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Tue Sep 07, 2010 1:08 pm

Giant Panda wrote:So Gatlin just was involved in a photo finish with Mike Rodgers, and beat Dwain Chambers by a metre.

Yeah, but Rodgers won in 10.15. The same Rodgers who may have lost a race to Lemaitre, I think; Chambers in 10.26. I don't think any of the three will be bragging about it.

Lemaitre v. Rogers
Lemaitre - 15 .... 10.03 .... 10.04 .... 9.99 .... 10.21 .... 9.97 .... 10.20
Rodgers - 22 .... 10.10 .... 10.09 .... 10.05 .... 10.29 .... 10.00 .... 10.36
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Dave » Tue Sep 07, 2010 8:36 pm

In the opinion of the board, is Gatlin near his potential peak? If he has further improvements, where will they come from? Improved fitness? More races? something else?

If you believe he is at his potential, what makes you believe that?

How quickly did Chambers get back into racing shape? I seem to remember it took him a season before he was ready to really compete.

My own sense is that there is more there than we have seen. The fact that he has won several of his races makes me believe there are better races in him.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby TrainerPhil » Wed Sep 08, 2010 4:49 am

Dave wrote:In the opinion of the board, is Gatlin near his potential peak? If he has further improvements, where will they come from? Improved fitness? More races? something else?

If you believe he is at his potential, what makes you believe that?

How quickly did Chambers get back into racing shape? I seem to remember it took him a season before he was ready to really compete.

My own sense is that there is more there than we have seen. The fact that he has won several of his races makes me believe there are better races in him.


You're probably going to find an even split on this topic. There are some, like myself, that believe he will never be a top tier runner again. And others who think that sub 10 is a given next season and sub 9.9 is attainable.

I have doubts about his talent. He needed "help" to be the premiere sprinter in male track and field 4 years ago and I think the Gatlin we are seeing right now is the real Gatlin. There are a lot of Gatlin fanatics on this board and all said he would go under 10.00 this season. I posted before his return that I thought 10.10 would probably be his best time this year and I was close (pat myself on the back). Could he dip under 10 next season? Sure...... But then again it seems that everybody and their mother these days finds themself in a fast race on a fast track with the right wind and has one sub 10 time to their credit. I suspect that he will hover around 10.00 next season and it wouldn't shock me if he either 1. Missed making the team for World Champs or 2. If he did make it on the US team, not make it to the final in the 100m.

It's not like he has been sitting around and doing nothing while he served his suspension. He has been training and keeping himself in shape and while you can't duplicate real race conditions, I just don't know how much more he can improve next season.

Maybe another tenth of a second.............
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby TrainerPhil » Wed Sep 08, 2010 4:52 am

TrainerPhil wrote:
Dave wrote:In the opinion of the board, is Gatlin near his potential peak? If he has further improvements, where will they come from? Improved fitness? More races? something else?

If you believe he is at his potential, what makes you believe that?

How quickly did Chambers get back into racing shape? I seem to remember it took him a season before he was ready to really compete.

My own sense is that there is more there than we have seen. The fact that he has won several of his races makes me believe there are better races in him.


You're probably going to find an even split on this topic. There are some, like myself, that believe he will never be a top tier runner again. And others who think that sub 10 is a given next season and sub 9.9 is attainable.

I have doubts about his talent. He needed "help" to be the premiere sprinter in male track and field 4 years ago and I think the Gatlin we are seeing right now is the real Gatlin. There are a lot of Gatlin fanatics on this board and all said he would go under 10.00 this season. I posted before his return that I thought 10.10 would probably be his best time this year and I was close (pat myself on the back). Could he dip under 10 next season? Sure...... But then again it seems that everybody and their mother these days finds themself in a fast race on a fast track with the right wind and has one sub 10 time to their credit. I suspect that he will hover around 10.00 next season and it wouldn't shock me if he either 1. Missed making the team for World Champs or 2. If he did make it on the US team, not make it to the final in the 100m.

It's not like he has been sitting around and doing nothing while he served his suspension. He has been training and trying to keep himself in shape (although he does look bigger and not in a good way) and while you can't duplicate real race conditions, I just don't know how much more he can improve next season.

Maybe another tenth of a second.............?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Mon Jun 20, 2011 7:20 am

valleyrunner wrote:I am not going to argue what tier certain athletes are in for 2010 but project where they will be in August 2011. My take on this being that is really what this argument is about. That means trying to determine who is going to show improvement and who is going to show age, regression, whatever.

2011 Tier 1 (medalists) - Bolt, Gay, Carter

2011 Tier 2 (other finalists) - Powell, R Bailey, Blake, Dix, D Bailey

2011 Tier 3 (possible finalists but likely semis only) - Thompson, Lemeitre, Martina, Ndure, Frater*, Forsythe*, Mullings*, Kimmons**, Gatlin**, Rogers** Sorry no Brits appear ready to step up their game at this point although maybe someone will. I would include Demps but I hear if football goes well he is 100% sure he will head to NFL.

* - Jamaica can only get 4 into meet so they could supplant some others if injuries occur.
** - US will only get 3 so these could be in the next tier but appear just off

In the 200 my tiers would be this:

2011 Tier 1 (medalists) - Bolt, Gay, Spearman
2011 Tier 2 (other finalists) - Blake, R Bailey, Mullings, Lemeitre, Martina
2011 Tier 3 (possible finalists) - Dix***, X Carter**, C Mitchell**, Guliyev, Sorrillo, Malcolm

*** - Dix could obviously be higher but his consistency level of being healthy is a worry and his latest injury is very serious and I see the US 3-some projecting faster anyway unless Dix can improve. Certainly he showed for a few DL races he could this year but then he was bitten again

Valleyrunner's calls from last year...
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Tue Jun 21, 2011 6:59 am

well looks like Ryan Baliey is gone for this year (injured?)
And Mullings is right between the 2nd and 1st tier guys..
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby shivfan » Wed Jun 22, 2011 2:02 am

ATK wrote:well looks like Ryan Baliey is gone for this year (injured?)
And Mullings is right between the 2nd and 1st tier guys..

Looking at valleyrunner's list, it looks like the two Baileys have moved down from Tier II to Tier III, and that Mullings and Lemaitre may have moved up from Tier III to Tier II....
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby TrainerPhil » Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:26 am

I don't think 9.95 puts Lemaitre in tier 2. I don't know what to make of Makusha Ngonidzashe's 9.89, and although he has run under 10 twice this season I'll keep him in tier 3.

Tier 1 - Bolt and Gay (up for Gold)
Tier 2 - Powell, Mullings, Blake (up for a medal)
Tier 3 - Rodgers, Bledman, Dix, Lemaitre, Thompson, Ngonidzashe, Daniel Bailey(up to make the finals)

Nesta Carter is a tier 3 guy right now and a possible tier 2 guy, but I don't expect him to finish in the top 3 at the JA qualifier, thus I didn't include him. Same goes for Ashmeade and Frater. Both are tier 3 guys and if given the chance, could make the finals. But I don't see them getting by Powell, Mullings and Blake.

Patton and Gatlin are tier 3 runners as well, but I don't see them beating Gay, Rodgers or Dix at Nationals, so no finals for them.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Wed Jun 22, 2011 5:47 am

shivfan wrote:
ATK wrote:well looks like Ryan Baliey is gone for this year (injured?)
And Mullings is right between the 2nd and 1st tier guys..

Looking at valleyrunner's list, it looks like the two Baileys have moved down from Tier II to Tier III, and that Mullings and Lemaitre may have moved up from Tier III to Tier II....

Not so fast! Though Mullings might be moved up to tier-2 according to vr, Lemaitre has only cemented himself in his current tier. Both Baileys are obviously not 2's but D. Bailey is back in the right direction. Last year gh said that there might not be a tier-2 and based upon this years results he's right. What we have now is a hybrid 2/3, in which the ability to make the final may give you a chance to medal if the Big 3 falter.

Tier-1 - Big 3
Tier-3 - Mullings, Blake/Carter, Dix, Rogers, Makusha, D. Bailey, Lemaitre (R. Thompson, Bledman, Ndure, Chambers, Obikwelu)

On the surface, it would seem that Mullings is undisputed tier-2; however, I don't like the windy times - even if he is the best relative to everyone he has raced not named Bolt in 2011. I'm just not sure yet that he's a 9.80 runner! It would mean that tier-3 (unparenthetical) would consist of 7 athletes who either have a PB of sub-9.90 or who may be capable of sub-9.90 by the time the WC end (9.8x's for Blake, Mullings, Dix, Rogers, and Makusha; 9.7x for Carter; Bailey, 9.91 and Lemaitre 9.95 - There is always the possibility that the parentheticals could catch fire, but I'm counting them out as of 22 June.)

The problem: 10 guys for an 8-lane track. It means that if you make the final, then you are a candidate for a medal should any of the Big-3 falter because you're capable of running sub-9.90; the margin of error is just too close now. Also, Powell ran 9.84 for Bronze in Berlin which was the fastest time ever by a Bronze medallist and that time may be "doable" by any of the remaining finalist not designated "Big-3". Only once has an athlete run sub-9.90 and not medalled: Shawn Crawford '04.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Wed Jun 22, 2011 7:24 am

You guys have to remember it can't be purely based on times. Also consistency and who you beat on the circuit is a major factor. Mullings is easily above the rest of the lower tier guys, but the only reason he would probably not be put in tier 1 is because it has only been for the year alone. (Like Nesta Carter and D Baliey from last year)
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 26mi235 » Wed Jun 22, 2011 8:53 am

7-sided wrote:Tier-1 - Big 3
Tier-3 - Mullings, Blake/Carter, Dix, Rogers, Makusha, D. Bailey, Lemaitre (R. Thompson, Bledman, Ndure, Chambers, Obikwelu)


New mapping of numbers which are used ordinally 1>2>3 => 1>3>4
The numbers 1, 2, 3 are really being used in an ordinal, ranking, manner as opposed to a cardinal manner where you can add them etc. In such a world:

If there is no one in tier 2, then there is simply a gap between 1 and (new) 2 and 3 gets renamed the new 2.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Thu Jun 23, 2011 4:54 am

26mi235 wrote:
7-sided wrote:Tier-1 - Big 3
Tier-3 - Mullings, Blake/Carter, Dix, Rogers, Makusha, D. Bailey, Lemaitre (R. Thompson, Bledman, Ndure, Chambers, Obikwelu)


New mapping of numbers which are used ordinally 1>2>3 => 1>3>4
The numbers 1, 2, 3 are really being used in an ordinal, ranking, manner as opposed to a cardinal manner where you can add them etc. In such a world:

If there is no one in tier 2, then there is simply a gap between 1 and (new) 2 and 3 gets renamed the new 2.

You're right, of course, I was just playing off of gh's "there may not be a tier-2 riff"

It is the rare final where ANY athlete is a potential medallist; usually there are a few who can be counted out at the start.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby bushop » Sat Sep 10, 2011 6:48 am

ATK September 1st, 2010, 6:37 pm wrote:I think after the recent Rieti marks it has become unclear what makes a tier and which sprinters belong in each. Although it is opinionated to a certain extent, I think most of it is pretty clear cut and based on facts.

• I think on time (both fast and relative to the competition in the race) and not medals or championship placings.
• Consistency is the main key to this....
• ... wind and altitude and all those other adjustments are irrelevant when It comes to this...

Here is how I think the current runners should be ranked with 3 tiers.
Tier 1: Bolt*, Gay, Powell
Tier 2: Dix, Blake, Thompson, D.Baliey, Carter*, Patton
Tier 3: R.Baliey, Lamietre, Frater, I.Williams, Rodgers, Martina,(possibly some others)

I find this pretty interesting and would really like to hear some reasons for why you put someone somewhere and what you define each tier as.

Where do the sprinters fall after Deagu and Zürich?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby shivfan » Sat Sep 10, 2011 7:34 am

Good question....

IMHO, Blake has done enough to be ranked in Tier I, especially if Powell is still there.

This would be my revised list:

Tier I - Bolt, Gay, Blake, Powell

Tier II - Dix, Lemaitre, DBailey, Carter, Rodgers (?), Collins, Vicault

Tier III - The rest
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Sat Sep 10, 2011 7:42 am

Honestly I was going to bring this topic back up, but after the next 2 meets. You have Dix and Carter running today and you have Blake running tomorrow. So they could throw down some serious times. (Especially Rieti)
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:25 am

Well Rieti was pretty lackluster this year. So I would put my new tiers as follows

1. Bolt Gay Powell Blake
2. Dix, Carter, Thompson, D.Baliey, Lemaitre.
3. the rest

Blake has definitely proved he belongs up with the best of them. Although he has yet to beat any of the top 3,(Powell looked to only do enough for the money in Zurich) he has handled the rest of the field over the past 2 seasons.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ZELLGADISS » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:33 am

ATK hardly Powell can make less 9.82 0.0. His 9.78 in Laussane with altitude and +1.0 is worst.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:55 am

ZELLGADISS wrote:ATK hardly Powell can make less 9.82 0.0. His 9.78 in Laussane with altitude and +1.0 is worst.

Time is not the only factor. He has not lost to anyone except Bolt and Gay in the past few years and he has consistently run in the 9.9 to 9.8 range.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ZELLGADISS » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:05 am

The level of Blake is very hight and is probably that is better in the future.
Only best Powell 3 or 4 years ago could defeat to Blake and by few.
For me Blake is better that Powell and in the next year Blake will be 3rd danger after Bolt and Gay and Blake perhaps is very near Gay the next year...
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby gh » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:57 am

time is irrelevant; it's all about who beats whom (and by how much).
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Half Miler » Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:08 pm

shivfan wrote:Tier II - ...Vicault


No way he's in Tier II; maybe Tier IV.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby gh » Sat Sep 10, 2011 12:10 pm

Yeah, Vicaut might struggle even to make the final at the Jamaican or U.S. champs at this point.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Per Andersen » Sat Sep 10, 2011 8:09 pm

gh wrote:Yeah, Vicaut might struggle even to make the final at the Jamaican or U.S. champs at this point.

Not sure I get this. Kimmons and Gatlin DID run in the U.S. champs final. But when it counted for most people Vicaut was superior to both of them. Should Vicaut have peaked in June?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Half Miler » Sat Sep 10, 2011 9:11 pm

Vicaut did indeed peak at the right time, but then again, he didn't have to worry (much) about making the French team. The same cannot be said for US or Jamaican sprinters (or Kenyan steeplechasers) who essentially have to peak twice during a championship year.

Basically, with a 10.07 PR and no major honors, he can't really be higher than tier 3 or 4.

Kim Collins won WC Bronze-- would you rank him as the 3rd best sprinter in the world?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Per Andersen » Sat Sep 10, 2011 10:17 pm

Half Miler wrote:Vicaut did indeed peak at the right time, but then again, he didn't have to worry (much) about making the French team. The same cannot be said for US or Jamaican sprinters (or Kenyan steeplechasers) who essentially have to peak twice during a championship year.

Basically, with a 10.07 PR and no major honors, he can't really be higher than tier 3 or 4.

Kim Collins won WC Bronze-- would you rank him as the 3rd best sprinter in the world?

I distinctly mentioned Kimmons. What major honors has he won?

Vicaut peaked in July for the Euro Juniors.

Don't know where you are going with Collins.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Half Miler » Sat Sep 10, 2011 11:09 pm

Per Andersen wrote:
Half Miler wrote:Vicaut did indeed peak at the right time, but then again, he didn't have to worry (much) about making the French team. The same cannot be said for US or Jamaican sprinters (or Kenyan steeplechasers) who essentially have to peak twice during a championship year.

Basically, with a 10.07 PR and no major honors, he can't really be higher than tier 3 or 4.

Kim Collins won WC Bronze-- would you rank him as the 3rd best sprinter in the world?

I distinctly mentioned Kimmons. What major honors has he won?


:?: I never suggested Kimmons was better than Vicaut. He's not a tier 2 guy, either. I would put him and Vicaut in the same group.

Vicaut peaked in July for the Euro Juniors.


Indeed. So let's assume he was peaking for the US Champs instead. He would've had to run his 10.07 PR to be the slowest qualifier into the finals (and this was gh's point, btw, not mine).

Don't know where you are going with Collins.


Your statement "when it counted for most people Vicaut was superior" is your implied argument for ranking Vicaut higher, yes? I was merely using Collins as another example. Collins beat Vicaut "when it counted". What does that mean to you?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby nicest person ever » Sun Sep 11, 2011 10:48 am

This season has made it kind of tricky to create the classes/tiers, since a lot of the tier 2 guys have been underperforming this season in the 100m (i.e. dix/thompson/rodgers/carter) compared to what we know they have been previously capable of, and also guys who I know have some others who I know have talent being either absent or way off their game (i.e. Ivory Williams, Churandy Martina, Alonso Edward, etc)

So, taking their whole careers into account, plus also this season to some extent, but weighted heavily along with their pre-2011 performances, but still taking 2011 into account as well, I would overall put it as something like:

Tier 1: Bolt, Gay, Blake, Powell

Tier 2: Dix, Rodgers, N.Carter, Thompson, Mullings, D.Bailey

Tier 3: Lemaitre, Collins, Frater, Gatlin, I.Williams, Patton

Tier 4: Martina, Ndure, Demps, A.Edward, Clarke, Padgett
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Half Miler » Sun Sep 11, 2011 10:55 am

Delete Mullings, :evil: and add Vicaut to Tier 4. :wink:
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby J2thaD » Sun Sep 11, 2011 11:10 am

shivfan wrote:Good question....

IMHO, Blake has done enough to be ranked in Tier I, especially if Powell is still there.

This would be my revised list:

Tier I - Bolt, Gay, Blake, Powell

Tier II - Dix, Lemaitre, DBailey, Carter, Rodgers (?), Collins, Vicault

Tier III - The rest


How does having a personal best of 10.07 make you tier II?

Is that simply based on making the final?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby nicest person ever » Sun Sep 11, 2011 11:13 am

I'm not so sure Vicaut is really Tier-4 material yet. I don't think he's ever even gone below about 10.09-basic yet in his whole career. 6th place in the final is nice and all I guess, but iono, I wanna see a little more from him first, before I put him up with the big boys.

I definitely would not be be surprised at all if he steps up to the plate in the very near future though, don't get me wrong.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby preston » Mon Apr 23, 2012 8:51 am

bushop wrote:I'd like to see the tiers sorted so:

tier 1: possible gold medalist
tier 2; possible medalist
tier 3: possible finalist
tier 4: possible semi-finalist

... in a major championship that season.

tier 1: Bolt
tier 2: Powell, Blake, Gay, Dix
tier 3: Thompson, Lemaitre, Chambers, Gatlin, Ndure, D. Bailey
tier 4*: Collins, Vicaut...

*I think tier-4 needs to be changed to "top-3/4 in the semis" instead of semi finalist. Only 9-12 guys can be top-3/4, but 24 athletes make the semis.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Marlow » Mon Apr 23, 2012 9:18 am

preston wrote:
bushop wrote:tier 1: possible gold medalist

tier 1: Bolt

Cutting the baloney kinda thin, aren't we? There are NO mortal locks.
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