Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"


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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby t_monk » Fri Sep 03, 2010 7:35 pm

26mi235 wrote:Remember that one reason that Dix does not race the 100 as often as others is because he is in the Tier 1B in the 200 along with Spearmon (Bolt/Gay are 1A). [Also, a reminder for non-Americans (who will probably remember it more easily) that Dix had a contract dispute that kept him out of racing many of the major non-champ type of meets in 2009.]

But Bolt runs the 200 fairly regularly and also there are hardly any circuit races for the 200, heck, Dix hardly runs circuit races in the 200 either. He doesn't run the circuit period. He falls in the same category as VCB, but unlike VCB he doesn't have the medals to back it up.

As per last year, the main reason he wasn't on circuit was because he was injured right? I know certain athletes with no representation what so ever but they are in downright every DL race there is. And I hardly counted 2009 because of said injury.

As for 2010, I expected him on the circuit, and he only opted to take on the 200 and the one 100 he opted to run in he got injured.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby DentyCracker » Fri Sep 03, 2010 9:34 pm

7-sided wrote:
JWiz wrote:Sir, truth be told. We are all racists on this spit of rock. We've all been raised with pre-conceived notions of skin color and prejudices. I don't take myself seriously at all, nor do I give a hoot what you think. I brought up Carter and Zagreb because you did genius. I say take your own advice. You could have presented your disagreement and held a proper debate but instead hide behind your callow fasade under the notion of discrimination? No, you saw what you precieved as an injustice and pulled a Al Sharpton.

And, sadly, you pulled a Palin ("poor, l'il, aggrieved me" :wink: - even added a wink for you. Thank me later)

We're not all racists, feel free to speak for yourself. Since you don't know what an outlier is than me describing Lemaitre's time at EC's and Carter's time at Zagreb as irrelevant must have been totally over your head. I will try to write more to your level in the future.

26, I agree it was a bad time to have that outlier (Carter), but he was still more than .1 up on the next fastest, iirc. I think Carter wasn't as bad as his time, but that Tyson was better than his [Tyson] time.

You do realise that Tyson bounced Nesta in that race right?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7BFrUq5Y3mA
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Fri Sep 03, 2010 10:27 pm

t_monk wrote:
26mi235 wrote:Remember that one reason that Dix does not race the 100 as often as others is because he is in the Tier 1B in the 200 along with Spearmon (Bolt/Gay are 1A). [Also, a reminder for non-Americans (who will probably remember it more easily) that Dix had a contract dispute that kept him out of racing many of the major non-champ type of meets in 2009.]

But Bolt runs the 200 fairly regularly and also there are hardly any circuit races for the 200, heck, Dix hardly runs circuit races in the 200 either. He doesn't run the circuit period. He falls in the same category as VCB, but unlike VCB he doesn't have the medals to back it up.

Where did you get that info from? Bolt ran the 200 a total of 2 times this year, only 1 of them being on the regular circuit. Dix ran the 200 8 times this season, with 4 of them on the regular circuit, and 3 of them within an 8 day period. He actually only missed 2 of the other major circuit 200's, one of them for unknown reasons, and the second cause of injury. And im pretty sure there are enough 200's in the season, if Spearmon was able to find more than 10 of them to run in.
And VCB ran what 4 times on the circuit this year, and only one of them was a 200.

But in terms of the 100m, Dix hasn't been racing as much this season for whatever reason but when he has raced he has showed up, and i gave you the info, he has been able to put it together when it counts and also up against the lower crop of runners in the one off races. Blake has done the same but Dix has the slight advantage. With both in full peak fitness, I would put Dix over Blake without hesitation.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby shivfan » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:12 am

7-sided wrote: some of you (obviously, JWiz, and a few others that won't be named..."shiv, you out there?"), seem to be bothered my Lemaitre's "presence" in the 100m. He's here, he's consistent and he earned it (and he strongly plays down the nonsense hype that may shortcircuit his development). Cut him some slack, the kids the real deal.

I heard the owl call my name....
:roll:
Lemaitre is good, but not that good...yet.

Sure, he won the 100 at the Euros against second-rate opposition. But what has he done since then? How many Diamond League events did he compete in? How did he do at Paris? Who were the sprinters who finished ahead of him at Rieti?

For the hell of it, here are my tiers....

Tier 1 - Bolt, Gay, Powell
Tier 2 - Carter, Blake, Thompson, Dix
Tier 3- Lemaitre, the Baileys, Kimmons, Rodgers, Frater, Martina, Williams, Patton, Padgett, Spearmon, Gatlin, Clarke

To me, there's a clear distinction between Tier 1 and Tier 2, and Tier 2 has a slight edge over Tier 3. However, I find it difficult to separate the athletes in Tier 3.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Giant Panda » Sat Sep 04, 2010 12:33 am

1 - Bolt
2- Gay
3 - The field
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Sep 04, 2010 7:42 am

t_monk wrote:
26mi235 wrote:
t_monk wrote:Tier 1: Bolt*, Gay, Powell
Tier 2: Carter**, Blake, Dix***
Tier 3: Leamitre****, Thompson+, Frater, Kimmons, Williams, Ndure

Of note: Rodgers, Martina, Patton, Forsythe, R. Bailey, Bledman, L. Clarke, M. Burns, D. Chambers


Given today's results, Gatlin is making his way to Tier 2 (or Frater to the 'Of note' category
1. Gatlin 10.15
2. Frater 10.26
Wind 0.4


WTF? Tier 2 for Gatlin? With a 10.15....

Gatlin >> Frater, Frater #3, Gatlin still systematically getting better (no one else is, thus, Gatlin is not yet in 'mid-season form'; Gatlin #3 or better but probably not better yet, but likely to be Tier 2 next year.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby t_monk » Sat Sep 04, 2010 8:05 am

26mi235 wrote:
t_monk wrote:
26mi235 wrote:Given today's results, Gatlin is making his way to Tier 2 (or Frater to the 'Of note' category
1. Gatlin 10.15
2. Frater 10.26
Wind 0.4


WTF? Tier 2 for Gatlin? With a 10.15....

Gatlin >> Frater, Frater #3, Gatlin still systematically getting better (no one else is, thus, Gatlin is not yet in 'mid-season form'; Gatlin #3 or better but probably not better yet, but likely to be Tier 2 next year.

For all we know he could peak at 10.0x for the rest of his career even with a full season am not yet ready to crown Gatlin a tier 2 runner. All the tier 2 runners have proven themselves thus far with either time or competitiveness over the past couple of seasons. A half a season, even with him running 10.09 in +0.9w in a handful of competitive international races (5 or 6) against mainly a bunch of unknown or C ranked athletes isn't enough for me to anoint him a tier 2 position.

He's in for a rude awaking next season....
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby t_monk » Sat Sep 04, 2010 8:29 am

ATK wrote:
t_monk wrote:
26mi235 wrote:Remember that one reason that Dix does not race the 100 as often as others is because he is in the Tier 1B in the 200 along with Spearmon (Bolt/Gay are 1A). [Also, a reminder for non-Americans (who will probably remember it more easily) that Dix had a contract dispute that kept him out of racing many of the major non-champ type of meets in 2009.]

But Bolt runs the 200 fairly regularly and also there are hardly any circuit races for the 200, heck, Dix hardly runs circuit races in the 200 either. He doesn't run the circuit period. He falls in the same category as VCB, but unlike VCB he doesn't have the medals to back it up.

Where did you get that info from? Bolt ran the 200 a total of 2 times this year, only 1 of them being on the regular circuit. Dix ran the 200 8 times this season, with 4 of them on the regular circuit, and 3 of them within an 8 day period. He actually only missed 2 of the other major circuit 200's, one of them for unknown reasons, and the second cause of injury. And im pretty sure there are enough 200's in the season, if Spearmon was able to find more than 10 of them to run in.
And VCB ran what 4 times on the circuit this year, and only one of them was a 200.

But in terms of the 100m, Dix hasn't been racing as much this season for whatever reason but when he has raced he has showed up, and i gave you the info, he has been able to put it together when it counts and also up against the lower crop of runners in the one off races. Blake has done the same but Dix has the slight advantage. With both in full peak fitness, I would put Dix over Blake without hesitation.

Bolt only ran the 200 2x this season because he was injured and was regulated to running the 100 only in 2009/2008 while fit he ran the 200 quite regularly.

In terms of Dix running the 200m, are also including him running at his trials? As for the remaining 4, most of those races (except the one with him and Gay) was predictably going to end in his victory. in 2009 he gets a pass because of injury and in 2008 he also gets a pass because he was probably tired from NCAA and was attempting to peak for Oly.

I honestly would be hard pressed at seeing Dix beat Blake in the 100m... 200m might be more of a toss up... but I see Blake beating Dix more often than not in the 100m. Both ended the season with injury though...

All in all... I REALLY LIKE how the season ended.... it sets things up EXCELLENTLY for next season
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 26mi235 » Sat Sep 04, 2010 8:38 am

t-monk, how obtuse do you want to be. Gatlin has been improving all the time. He has been running on slower tracks. He has faced some good journeyman sprinters and beaten them all, by increasing amounts. He has faced two better sprinters and beaten one decisively and lost to the other by 0.03 (although cramped). To think that he suddenly will be stuck right where he is is not a very good most likely case. Whether you like him or not is not the question, the question is where is he going and to think that he will not even be a Tier 3 sprinter is to border on delusional while to think that he will not soon be Tier 2 is not a very good use of the evidence.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby t_monk » Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:24 am

26mi235 wrote:t-monk, how obtuse do you want to be. Gatlin has been improving all the time. He has been running on slower tracks. He has faced some good journeyman sprinters and beaten them all, by increasing amounts. He has faced two better sprinters and beaten one decisively and lost to the other by 0.03 (although cramped). To think that he suddenly will be stuck right where he is is not a very good most likely case. Whether you like him or not is not the question, the question is where is he going and to think that he will not even be a Tier 3 sprinter is to border on delusional while to think that he will not soon be Tier 2 is not a very good use of the evidence.

Him being a tier 3 athlete NEXT YEAR is possible.... him being a tier 3 athlete right now is highly unlikely but you can probably make an argument for him.... him being a tier 2 athlete now? Ludicrous!

Beating Frater now is hardly anything to harp about now as you probably could have come noticed with Frater not being on the circuit for MOST of the season. His SB before his 9.98 was actually 10.08 in a +1.7w...

Being beaten by Blake by only 0.03 also is nothing to harp about seeing that Blake was hesitating from as early as about 40m in the race IMHO.

And time wise... he has made marginal improvement... he is still a 10.1mid basic runner and that was from the start of his season to now. Correct all his times (even the 10.09) and you get about 10.15... which is where he has been all season more or less.

I don't have a problem with the dude... but he doesn't deserve to be in the 2nd tier right now and should hardly be considered in the 3rd tier. Let me see him beat someone in form in the 3rd tier. Beat Lemaitre which is probably the only in form 3rd tier runner right now.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby shivfan » Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:47 am

Until Gatlin can actually start clocking times of sub-10 seconds more than once this season, he can't be regarded as Tier 2, IMHO....
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby t_monk » Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:56 am

shivfan wrote:Until Gatlin can actually start clocking times of sub-10 seconds more than once this season, he can't be regarded as Tier 2, IMHO....


And unless there is some serious wind hindering him he needs to hit sub-9.9 at least once >_>
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Sat Sep 04, 2010 10:12 am

t_monk wrote:Bolt only ran the 200 2x this season because he was injured and was regulated to running the 100 only in 2009/2008 while fit he ran the 200 quite regularly.

In terms of Dix running the 200m, are also including him running at his trials? As for the remaining 4, most of those races (except the one with him and Gay) was predictably going to end in his victory. in 2009 he gets a pass because of injury and in 2008 he also gets a pass because he was probably tired from NCAA and was attempting to peak for Oly.

I honestly would be hard pressed at seeing Dix beat Blake in the 100m... 200m might be more of a toss up... but I see Blake beating Dix more often than not in the 100m. Both ended the season with injury though...

All in all... I REALLY LIKE how the season ended.... it sets things up EXCELLENTLY for next season


Fair enough, but Dix ran the 200 5 times not counting trials.
But what is quite regularly because Bolt only ran the 200 4 times last season not counting Trials and Berlin, and 2 of those 4 were in september, after the world champs.

I guess im a little biased towards Dix, he has been my favorite sprinter since he really separated himself from the rest as the only other doubler besides Gay and Bolt, and Blake is moving onto the scene with an amazing year. But yes next year will be an extremely interesting one with some hopeful matchups that will give us alot of answers.

And I agree Gatlin cant even be mentioned with Dix or Blake. why bring up him loosing by .03 is irrelevant. That just shows how great of an athlete Blake is.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Pelpa » Sat Sep 04, 2010 6:24 pm

Not exactly on topic but somewhat a side wedge;

All things being equal Jamaica's men's 100m trial:

A Powell 9.72
N. Carter 9.78
U. Bolt 9.58
M. Frater 9.98
O. Bailey 10.11
Y. Blake 9.89
M. Forsthye 9.95
L. Clarke 9.99

All things being equal USA men's 100m trial
W.Dix (9.88)
R.Edwards (10.00)
T. Gay (9.69)
R. Bailey (9.88)
T. Padgette (9.89)
I. Williams (9.93)
T. Kimmons (9.95)
J. Gatlin (9.85 or 10.09 depending on how you see him) /doc. Patton(9.89)

What a cracker.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby t_monk » Sat Sep 04, 2010 8:17 pm

Pelpa wrote:Not exactly on topic but somewhat a side wedge;

All things being equal Jamaica's men's 100m trial:

A Powell 9.72
N. Carter 9.78
U. Bolt 9.58
M. Frater 9.98
O. Bailey 10.11
Y. Blake 9.89
M. Forsthye 9.95
L. Clarke 9.99

All things being equal USA men's 100m trial
W.Dix (9.88)
R.Edwards (10.00)
T. Gay (9.69)
R. Bailey (9.88)
T. Padgette (9.89)
I. Williams (9.93)
T. Kimmons (9.95)
J. Gatlin (9.85 or 10.09 depending on how you see him) /doc. Patton(9.89)

What a cracker.

And that is without any unforeseen surprise....
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Smoke » Sat Sep 04, 2010 9:22 pm

7 word of advice you cannot resort to calling others childish when you attack them and call them racist based solely on your own guesswork as to their reasoning. All you accomplished was over complicating a fun thread, and causing the rest of us to skim 3/4s of the thread.

Gatlin cannot be included in anything greater than tier 3 next year. 10.09 is not getting him anywhere. He did not race anyone he will have to knock off for the US team.
Lemaitre is for sure a tier 3 in the aforementioned tiers, to say otherwise is just to be argumentative, which is not beyond any of us. He did run on the circuit and he beat some select folks. Last time I checked the last European champ was also the Olympic silver medalist, and guess what, he beat those same second rate sprinters to win the Euro title. Too much is placed on times and not on competition. Anyone know who won the Continental Cup today? Just curious

Tier 1 - Gay and Bolt. Why? IN big pressure situations these are the only 2 that can compete, everyone else falls short. Bolt clearly holds the edge with his 9.58 but Tyson is the hottest sprinter on the planet right now and remains the only man that pushes Bolt to 9.5x level

Tier 2 - Asafa, Dix, Thompson. They have medals and have proven when the lights come on they will rise to the occasion. Thompson has beat both of these men in the pressure cooker, so despite his circuit woes, I am comfortable and confident in his big game ability, doubt him at your peril.

Tier 3 - Carter, Blake. I really cannot think of another realistic threat to the above tiers, as the landscape stands right now. These 2 have produced the results to make me believe they are a level away from the podium. These 2 are legitimate threat to all on tier 2.

Tier 4 - Lemaitre, Martina, (Bailey), D. Bailey, T Padgett, I Williams. I think I am missing someone from this level but not sure. Some of you will clearly want to move the first three or four up a tier, but as you can see I included this extra tier. I also included Padgett and Williams just to respect what they have run but they have not done a lot to prove to me they are real contenders. Ah I know who I forgot, last years US champ, Mike Rodgers, he belongs firmly on this tier. Ryan Bailey remains in brackets for me because he has to back up that 9.88 for me to believe he's for real. To date i would give him a better chance at the 200 than the 100. This tier are the hopefuls. The young men that have shown us they can get the job done but dont have the experience on the big stage.

Thats my off the cuff tier break down. My list is a little more exclusive than the ones I have read. My requirements are a little tougher in terms of competition but not as tough in terms of times. The ability or perceived ability to perform in a major is what colors my opinion more than anything.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Sat Sep 04, 2010 11:21 pm

Smoke I actually agree with your rankings, but your really basing it mainly off Chamionships which I dont think would be a fair evaluation for the tiers as a whole.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Giant Panda » Sun Sep 05, 2010 4:00 am

Gatlin would thrash Lemaitre in a race.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby t_monk » Sun Sep 05, 2010 5:11 am

Giant Panda wrote:Gatlin would thrash Lemaitre in a race.

Opinion not fact. And I would beg to differ. This is provided that Lemaitre has even worse race mechanics than he already does have and Gatlin produces his best race for the season and with that I still give Lemaitre the nod.

The only basis by which I can possibly deduce you saying that is the '0.03' lost from Blake which is still suspect because as said the guy was hesitating from about 40m IMHO so that in itself can be thrown out. And his 0.15 over Frater and judging from the form Frater is in right now, that again is suspect.

At best I could believe someone claiming it would be close.... but a thrashing.... That in itself is biased either towards Gatlin or against Lemaitre :? Heck I even think D. Bailey would beat Gatlin now... and D. Bailey ain't better than Lemaitre. >_>
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Sun Sep 05, 2010 5:21 am

Smoke wrote:Tier 1 - Gay and Bolt. Why? IN big pressure situations these are the only 2 that can compete, everyone else falls short. Bolt clearly holds the edge with his 9.58 but Tyson is the hottest sprinter on the planet right now and remains the only man that pushes Bolt to 9.5x level

Tier 2 - Asafa, Dix, Thompson. They have medals and have proven when the lights come on they will rise to the occasion. Thompson has beat both of these men in the pressure cooker, so despite his circuit woes, I am comfortable and confident in his big game ability, doubt him at your peril.

Tier 3 - Carter, Blake. I really cannot think of another realistic threat to the above tiers, as the landscape stands right now. These 2 have produced the results to make me believe they are a level away from the podium. These 2 are legitimate threat to all on tier 2.

Tier 4 - Lemaitre, Martina, (Bailey), D. Bailey, T Padgett, I Williams. I think I am missing someone from this level but not sure. Some of you will clearly want to move the first three or four up a tier, but as you can see I included this extra tier. I also included Padgett and Williams just to respect what they have run but they have not done a lot to prove to me they are real contenders. Ah I know who I forgot, last years US champ, Mike Rodgers, he belongs firmly on this tier. Ryan Bailey remains in brackets for me because he has to back up that 9.88 for me to believe he's for real. To date i would give him a better chance at the 200 than the 100. This tier are the hopefuls. The young men that have shown us they can get the job done but dont have the experience on the big stage.

Your medals/honors won just pollutes the "tiered" classification; what you have described is a personal lifetime achievement award with some performance for effect. It holds in some cases, but it makes it more difficult to grade athletes on their current body of work. From your classification, I am tempted to think of these sprinters, sequentially, from 1-[x-number], not in tier/class. Examples: you keep Bolt and Gay together (not saying that's wrong), yet you "equalize" Dix*, Powell and Thompson - presumably because they have all been the "3rd" medal; gh pointed out, we may be overrating "big game, ready for the pressure cooker" Thompson (that would include me). Giant Panda has mentioned Marc Burns - perennial finalist - yet absent from most lists of the tiers/classes. Medals/Honors won may be important in classifying sprinters for history, but NOT for tiering them for current seasons! Who among you wants to add Kim Collins to Tier 1- 2? Frater? How about Derrick Atkins? This can get ridiculous propping athletes up simply because they medalled at some point in history or consistently made finals (Aziz Zakari?). Asafa Powell is a class above Dix and Thompson and neither Dix or Thompson are thought of as a class above Carter or Blake (except by you :roll: ). Some will hammer Powell for his high profile failures, but he ran 9.84 for a bronze last year with Thompson in the race. End of story. Even by YOUR classification that would should have been enough to cement his tier-1 bonafides. 9.84! His fastest time of the season and his best ever championship performance! And, Gay isn't as much pushing Usain than CHASING him (ex. Usain ran 9.69, 19.30, 19.19...all w/o Gay).

I actually agree for the most part with your tiers (I don't think there should be 4, but you set it up rationally enough for me to understand your point - even if I don't agree with the [over]emphasis on honors won) it just gives too many points for medals, something you clearly explained was the basis for your criteria.

*Dix. Dix is the wrench in gears! Even more than Thompson, imo. He ran so few 100m races this year that it is extremely difficult to "place" him, specifically, in how he rates against Carter and Blake. 3-4 f his races are from USATF where the headwinds were seemingly all above 1.0.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Giant Panda » Sun Sep 05, 2010 6:31 am

This thread is laughable because of the focus on times instead of head to head records.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Tracksage » Sun Sep 05, 2010 7:24 am

http://theviewfromthefinishline.blogspo ... -rank.html

I think Smoke may have borrowed some from this blog post which has more of a mix between performance and times
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:09 am

Giant Panda wrote:This thread is laughable because of the focus on times instead of head to head records.

Laughable is a bit of hyperbole, but I agree that head-to-head should weight in the conversation more (it would quickly descend into a BCS type formula...yielding no better of an argument, though). That said, times are the next best thing with the "medals/honors" won fitting squarely in the "laughable" category. You just can't keep adjusting for an athletes past success ad infinitum - or, as it suits your personal bias. Some are using the "medals/honors" won to relegate some athletes (Powell, Blake and Carter) while elevating others (Gay and Dix; Frater, Thompson). There is just no way to "equate" Bolt and Gay - but drop Powell to tier-2, while "equating" Dix and Thompson with Powell. It's stupid! It makes no sense. Either Powell is a tier-1, along with Gay and presumably Bolt and DISTANCED from Dix and Thompson or the only correct tiering is Giant Panda's first tiering*

Giant Panda wrote:1 - Bolt
2- The field

*he later edited it, but the original is most accurate, imo.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby t_monk » Sun Sep 05, 2010 10:24 am

Tracksage wrote:http://theviewfromthefinishline.blogspot.com/2010/09/how-do-current-sprinters-rank.html

I think Smoke may have borrowed some from this blog post which has more of a mix between performance and times

I was thinking the exact same thing...
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Sun Sep 05, 2010 11:49 am

out of curiosity and stupidity, I converted the following athletes stats to basic and then ranked them in order of average 5-best times.

Athlete # of races Avg b5 Avg b7 C-SB C- Worst Actual SB Real worst
Gay - 09 .... 9.81 .... 9.83 .... 9.75 .... 9.99 .... 9.78 .... 10.02
Powell - 10 .... 9.84 .... 9.87 .... 9.81 .... 10.11 .... 9.82 .... 10.11
N. Carter - 14 .... 9.89 .... 9.92 .... 9.83 .... 10.24 .... 9.78 .... 10.24
Blake - 12 .... 9.92 .... 9.94 .... 9.86 .... 10.27 .... 9.89 .... 10.20
Dix - 09 .... 10.00 .... 10.05 .... 9.94 .... 10.17 .... 9.88 .... 10.30
D. Bailey - 13 .... 10.01 .... 10.04 .... 9.98 .... 10.24 .... 10.00 .... 10.24
Lemaitre - 15 .... 10.03 .... 10.04 .... 9.99 .... 10.21 .... 9.97 .... 10.20
Kimmons - 23 .... 10.06 .... 10.04 .... 9.92 .... 10.43 .... 9.95 .... 10.27
Thompson 18 .... 10.03 .... 10.05 .... 10.00 .... 10.28 .... 10.01 .... 10.32
R. Bailey - 11 .... 10.04 .... 10.06 .... 9.93 .... 10.26 .... 9.88 .... 10.24
Forsythe - 28 .... 10.07 .... 10.09 .... 10.00 .... 10.61 .... 9.95 .... 10.61
Frater - 26 .... 10.07 .... 10.09 .... 10.03 .... 10.38 .... 9.98 .... 10.55
Ndure - 14 .... 10.10 .... 10.09 .... 10.05 .... 10.25 .... 10.00 .... 10.31
Rodgers - 22 .... 10.10 .... 10.09 .... 10.05 .... 10.29 .... 10.00 .... 10.36
Martina - 13 .... 10.09 .... 10.12 .... 10.02 .... 10.34 .... 10.03 .... 10.04
Edwards - 21 .... 10.20 .... 10.17 .... 10.07 .... 10.41 .... 10.00 .... 10.53
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Pelpa » Sun Sep 05, 2010 3:09 pm

Giant Panda wrote:1 - Bolt
2- Gay
3 - The field

At this point I'm prepared to revise my old list and have mine looking like this one. My thing though is that Carter/Blake have thrown this ranking unpside down coming to us as tricky benchmark guys.

1-Bolt (supremely)

2-Gay and Powell (just can't direspect his class and thorw him down there with the likes of Carter, Blake and Lemaitre, at one point Gay was fodder for AP)

3-Guys with sub 9.9 clockings and/or guys who have medalled at Major Championships or made the final ( In the case of the EUs he'd have had to finish 1st...LOL ). Gatlin is floating in a parallel universe to this one.

4-all others like the British 100m guys, D'zingai, Rookies, Forsthye,Anderson, Williams, Edwards.

P.S. I just realized I created a hybrid of Giant Panda and Smoke.

The tier system would need some rationalization of Rieti, Doha & Eugene perfomances/times, which I suspect will kick up a shitstorm of debates.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby TrainerPhil » Sun Sep 05, 2010 9:20 pm

Giant Panda wrote:This thread is laughable because of the focus on times instead of head to head records.


What's laughable is that you think Gatlin would beat Lemaitre in a race....... Not happening this season and I doubt it will ever happen.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Smoke » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:45 am

How do you know I did not write that blog piece? LOL I didnt. That being said my entire post was written in one setting, in one take, on the spot. I do not even recall what Conway's blog said. So any similarities is pure coincidence.

Yes my tiers are weighted on who has done what on the big stage. It is the constant that we all look for while watching the sport, can they win it all. I can modify the premise but I am not sure my tiers would change, let me see. Body of work of current sprinters:

Tier 1 - Gay and Bolt

Tier 2 - Powell, Carter, Blake, Dix, Lemaitre, Thompson - Now Thompson stays here because of his ability to raise his levels and I think he is a threat to this group in any and all races. Blake is my question mark. Lemaitre comes storming in and yes based on body of work, headed into next year he is a tier 2 performer, with the times and placements to back it up. COntroversial but belongs nonetheless

Tier 3 - Bailey, Bailey, Padgett, Rodgers, KImmons, Frater, I dropped tier four as requested. I do not think there are any special explanation needed
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Giant Panda » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:52 am

Lemaitre beat Frater by 0.01 in Rieti and Frater promptly lost by a tenth to Gatlin, so why is it laughable to imagine Gatlin beating Lemaitre? At the weekend we saw Lemaitre run 10.06 and only narrowly beat Daniel Bailey who isn't having a stellar season by any means. You're all lost in these fast times but totally ignore the races where Nesta Carter runs 10.07 etc. Don't look at the clock. Look at the gaps on the track between athletes who are common to different races on the circuit. Yes, the track and the temperature have a HUGE impact on times. Look at Lemaitre at the European Championships. He can't break 10.1 and is only 0.07 ahead of Mark Lewis Francis. But all you can see is those 9.9s. Stop assuming Gatlin needs to run a low 9.9 to beat Lemaitre. He doesn't. But in the right race, yeah, he could. Go and watch the match up with Yohan Blake again, and take the blinkers off. If he beat Frater and Samuels by decent margins, why would he have any difficulty beating Lemaitre? What a ludicrous argument.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Giant Panda » Mon Sep 06, 2010 12:58 am

To echo another ancient conversation on another board, Gatlins 10.0s are better than Lemaitre's 10.0s.

:lol:
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:02 am

Smoke wrote:It is the constant that we all look for while watching the sport, can they win it all. I can modify the premise but I am not sure my tiers would change, let me see. [current]Body of work of current sprinters:

Tier 2 - Powell, Carter, Blake, Dix, Lemaitre, Thompson - Now Thompson stays here because of his ability to raise his levels and I think he is a threat to this group in any and all races. Blake is my question mark. Lemaitre comes storming in and yes based on body of work, headed into next year he is a tier 2 performer, with the times and placements to back it up. COntroversial but belongs nonetheless

Thompson. I agree, against any form of logic, that Thompson is tier-2. And, though the only thing I can pin it to is "his ability to rise to the occasion", ironically I don't think that should count in the tiering. :lol: But, I am beginning to lean towards gh's hesitance to weld him into that tier.

Powell. Looking at current body of work, Powell has a best-5 race average of 9.84 "basic" and a best-7 race average of 9.87 "basic". This average was achieved with Powell missing the "meat" of his season - late August/early September. How can you possibly tier him with Thompson? How can you possibly tier him with Lemaitre?!?!? :shock: Powell has 2 global medals to Thompson's 1 and is nearly unbeatable on the circuit. He is a class apart from everyone else in tier-2. He has to be tier-1 with Gay and Bolt for this reason: he is the ONLY other athlete who can beat Gay or Bolt. Dix can't, Thompson can't, and Blake can't; and I have serious reservations about if Carter can (I believe he can't).

Lemaitre. 2010 or 2011? I still don't see Lemaitre as a tier-2 sprinter. You can't argue with the fact that he won most of his races, but he also ran sparingly on the "open" circuit; they planned that he would not run too far from home: the perfect set-up for a young sprinter. He is a solid, raw sprinter with potentially more upside than the other sprinters (maybe save R. Bailey) with whom I group him with in tier-3.

Giant Panda. Gatlin might beat Lemaitre on any given race, but as of now, Lemaitre, for 2010 has been the consistently FASTER - and better - sprinter. You should know better than to create your convoluted "rock-scissors-paper" version of who beat who when on what track with SLOWER times. It doesn't work like that and you know it. It's not "apples to apples" to compare basic times either (where Lemaitre is also faster than Gatlin) but it gives SOME context. Lemaitre's season below should also quiet the "Gatlin ran on a slow track" talk:
10.09 (1.0) 1 Aix-les-Bains 1-May
10.24 (-2.2) 1 Vénissieux 9-May
10.03 (0.6) 1 Franconville 23-May
10.09 (0.6) 2 Roma 10-Jun
10.02 (1.1) 2 Bergen 19-Jun
10.15 (1.2) 1h1 Valence 8-Jul
10.05 (0.0) 1s1 Valence 8-Jul
9.98  (1.3) 1 Valence 9-Jul
10.09 (-0.3) 5 Saint-Denis 16-Jul
10.19 (-1.4) 1h5 Barcelona 27-Jul
10.11 (-1.0) 1 Barcelona 28-Jul
10.06 (-1.2) 1s1 Barcelona 28-Jul
10.20 (0.4) 2 Villeneuve d'Ascq 24-Aug
9.97  (0.9) 4 Rieti 29-Aug
9.98  (1.1) 2h2 Rieti 29-Aug
10.06 (0.7) 1 Split 4-Sep
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Giant Panda » Mon Sep 06, 2010 8:58 am

Gatlin would thrash Lemaitre in a race.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:02 am

7-sided wrote:10.09 (1.0) 1 Aix-les-Bains 1-May
10.24 (-2.2) 1 Vénissieux 9-May
10.03 (0.6) 1 Franconville 23-May
10.09 (0.6) 2 Roma 10-Jun
10.02 (1.1) 2 Bergen 19-Jun
10.15 (1.2) 1h1 Valence 8-Jul


If we end his season here do you maintain that he is better and consistently so, than Gatlin? This is where Gatlin is in his season, five or so races. Did L do any better against common opponents? If not, you are seduced by number without making any systematic effort to assess those numbers. Whatever you do, no not go into economics, you would make a poor one because you cannot work out what the numbers mean.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Smoke » Mon Sep 06, 2010 11:11 am

GP that was funny but at this time in life Lemaitre's 10.0s are better than Gatlin's. lol

On the Gatlin front, look we are talking current situation. That means at best Gatlin is tier 3. He is not a threat and has not done a thing to prove himself a threat. He lost to an ailing Blake. In case you guys have forgotten Blake loses frequently, posts nice times but loses to the tier 1 consistently and sometimes slips to the tier 2s.
Potentially and hopefully Gatlin will break ten, but until that happens he is not on my list. Otherwise I am adding MBandjock, Doc, Dwain, Simeon and anyone else that looks like they potentially can run sub ten

Compelling argument for Thompson into tier 3. However, he rarely lays an egg in races that he runs in.

AP, hmmmmm. I guess in my mind I will have to give AP his own tier. He isnt on par with Bolt and Gay but he is apart from those I would place in what is tier 2. I will call it the Tier AP lol. I just cannot place him on level with Bolt and Gay because when all things are equal he loses to them consistently. Now this opens up Gay to being a level lower in that logic however, this season will see Gay as the best sprinter in the world, and he beat Bolt with a 9.7x. So I will go back to 4 tiers, and AP is the sole occupant of tier 2. Thompson is tier 3.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby bushop » Mon Sep 06, 2010 6:36 pm

I'd like to see the tiers sorted so:

tier 1: possible gold medalist
tier 2; possible medalist
tier 3: possible finalist
tier 4: possible semi-finalist

... in a major championship that season.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby TrainerPhil » Tue Sep 07, 2010 4:53 am

bushop wrote:I'd like to see the tiers sorted so:

tier 1: possible gold medalist
tier 2; possible medalist
tier 3: possible finalist
tier 4: possible semi-finalist

... in a major championship that season.


Using this tier system:

100m

Tier 1 - Bolt and Gay
Tier 2 - Powell, Blake, Carter, Dix, Thompson (I think all 4 could medal under the right circumstance)
Tier 3 - Lemaitre, D. Bailey, R. Bailey, Kimmons, Padget, Rodgers, Gatlin (I think the 8th finalist comes from this group)

Tier 4 - everyone else including Frater and Forsthye who won't make it out of National qualifying.

200m

Tier 1 - Bolt
Tier 2 - Gay, Spearmon, Dix, Blake (Bolt has gold locked up, the other medals will come from these 4 guys)
Tier 3 - Everyone else
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Tue Sep 07, 2010 5:33 am

26mi235 wrote:
7-sided wrote:10.09 (1.0) 1 Aix-les-Bains 1-May
10.24 (-2.2) 1 Vénissieux 9-May
10.03 (0.6) 1 Franconville 23-May
10.09 (0.6) 2 Roma 10-Jun [Powell]
10.02 (1.1) 2 Bergen 19-Jun [Chambers]
10.15 (1.2) 1h1 Valence 8-Jul


If we end his season here do you maintain that he is better and consistently so, than Gatlin? This is where Gatlin is in his season, five or so races. Did L do any better against common opponents? If not, you are seduced by number without making any systematic effort to assess those numbers. Whatever you do, no not go into economics, you would make a poor one because you cannot work out what the numbers mean.

26, it shocks me the a phd-level economist would make such an accuasation without first doing his research. Look at the numbers that you quoted above! Nearly ALL of the times are superior to anything that Gatlin has run this year! Even the 10.24 (-2.2) converts to a "basic" better than Gatlin's SB! Yet, I'm "seduced by the numbers..."? I have no idea who would win if they raced this year - it's close - but, on balance of this season the numbers suggest that Lemaitre would beat Gatlin. So, how about you stop with the "Gatlin had a slow track..." and "Gatlin had no competition..." talk because Lemaitre's early season was a diet of those same tracks and LESS competition!

I have the following results for Gatlin in 2010. How are these better than the "artificially truncated" season you have introduced for Lemaitre?

Gatlin 2010 [basic times]
10.34 (-1.7) [10.23]
10.24 (-0.6) [10.20] Samuels
10.19 (2.3) [10.30]
10.28 (-2.0) [10.15]
10.17 (1.0) [10.22]
10.09 (0.9) [10.13] Blake
10.15 (0.4) [10.17] Frater, Ashmeade

Gatlin's "basic" avg for best 5 = 10.17 (I threw out his worst 2); Lemaitre's "basic" best 5 avg (your #'s!) = 10.10; 10.12 for all 6. Ordinal, cardinal, basic, actual (I'm sure you know a few more...)...whichever way you want to measure it!! Also, I am not sure if you noticed, but you took the SLOWEST time from Valence which was his opening heat at French Champs. His semi? 10.05 (0.0); final = 9.98 (1.3). If we use THAT semi as his seventh race to "equal" Gatlin's 7 races, his best-5 race average drops to 10.08 (it was 10.078 but I kept with "electronic timing" protocols :wink: ); 10.106 [10.11 :wink: ] if I use all 7 times!

I would have hoped that you would have been a hell of a lot better at anyalyzing sprints than I would be at economics, but it appears that we would BOTH be completely out of our element. Stick with economics; those numbers suit you better, because you've certainly made a mess of these! Or claim that one of your students hacked your account! :lol:
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 26mi235 » Tue Sep 07, 2010 6:41 am

I think that L is likely to beat Gatlin at this stage (i.e., if they race Saturday), although I am not sure that it is a foregone conclusion. I do not think that the gap is real wide and I expect both sprinters to raise their game further as they 1) continue to evolve; and 2) return to previous form. I am surprised how little folks seem to care that winners have some special element that gets them where they need to be and of the various athletes listed here only Gay and Bolt can hold a candle to Gatlin in that regard, the rest are not in the same league at all -- whether Gatlin can return to that league I am not at all sure, I just think that too many opinions of his abilities are colored by what the poster would like to be the case rather than objectively think will be the case.

Of course, the 100 and even 200 are different events than when Gatlin left the scene, so it could be argued that he had that something special to win at a lower level NCAA/WC/OG set of contests. Another thing that Gatlin has that none of the others in the running for Tiers 2/3/4 is that he has shown a versatility and athleticism by being a very good hurdler in his early years. To me his form looks rough still (but I am not much of an expert on sprint form) and when he gets things like that back he will pick up time that most of his competition for 2/3/4 do not have for 'easy pickings'. My guess is that next year he might be able to beat all of the non-Bolt/Gay crowd at least once if racing a normal schedule (which he will likely not get a chance to do), although those at the top might be out of reach, especially if they pick up another notch.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Tue Sep 07, 2010 6:58 am

26mi235 wrote:My guess is that next year he might be able to beat all of the non-Bolt/Gay crowd at least once if racing a normal schedule (which he will likely not get a chance to do), although those at the top might be out of reach, especially if they pick up another notch.

OK now your just out of your mind. There is no way Gatlin is beating a fully fit Powell Carter Dix or Blake...No way...
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 7-sided » Tue Sep 07, 2010 7:37 am

26mi235 wrote:My guess is that next year he might be able to beat all of the non-Bolt/Gay crowd at least once if racing a normal schedule (which he will likely not get a chance to do), although those at the top might be out of reach, especially if they pick up another notch.

Gatlin won't beat Powell at any point next year; imo, he won't get within .10 in the same race. And, though Dix, Carter and Blake are far less consistent than the Big-3, they will also take the measure of Gatlin on a regular basis. Now, anything is possible, but I would be surprised if Gatlin ran sub-9.93 in 2011 and I believe that all the others will. I don't see it as Gatlin not getting a chance to run (because of meet directors ban), I see it that he hasn't earned his way into DL big meets yet, so it's not like he is being punished here! For the moment he is nearly a 10.20 "basic" runner. That's the "Mendoza Line" for elite sprinters! There are a lot of athletes who never [cheated/got caught] who deserve those lanes before Gatlin and I hope that meet directors take note of that in 2011. If he opens up with 9.93 (-0.4), more power to him, but until he breaks 10.00, he shouldn't even make the B-race for a DL meet.

It looks very likely that the Prefontaine meet will be the first DL to break the embargo and allow a cheat of Gatlins profile to run (other cheats have run in DL meets, but there seems to be an excuse based upon possible press coverage). If they do that than Jordan should make sure that the race is on Dwain Chambers schedule as well. It would be more interesting, for me, to know how Gatlin stacks up against Chambers than he does against the other athletes.
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