Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"


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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Half Miler » Sun Sep 11, 2011 10:55 am

Delete Mullings, :evil: and add Vicaut to Tier 4. :wink:
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby J2thaD » Sun Sep 11, 2011 11:10 am

shivfan wrote:Good question....

IMHO, Blake has done enough to be ranked in Tier I, especially if Powell is still there.

This would be my revised list:

Tier I - Bolt, Gay, Blake, Powell

Tier II - Dix, Lemaitre, DBailey, Carter, Rodgers (?), Collins, Vicault

Tier III - The rest


How does having a personal best of 10.07 make you tier II?

Is that simply based on making the final?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby nicest person ever » Sun Sep 11, 2011 11:13 am

I'm not so sure Vicaut is really Tier-4 material yet. I don't think he's ever even gone below about 10.09-basic yet in his whole career. 6th place in the final is nice and all I guess, but iono, I wanna see a little more from him first, before I put him up with the big boys.

I definitely would not be be surprised at all if he steps up to the plate in the very near future though, don't get me wrong.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby preston » Mon Apr 23, 2012 8:51 am

bushop wrote:I'd like to see the tiers sorted so:

tier 1: possible gold medalist
tier 2; possible medalist
tier 3: possible finalist
tier 4: possible semi-finalist

... in a major championship that season.

tier 1: Bolt
tier 2: Powell, Blake, Gay, Dix
tier 3: Thompson, Lemaitre, Chambers, Gatlin, Ndure, D. Bailey
tier 4*: Collins, Vicaut...

*I think tier-4 needs to be changed to "top-3/4 in the semis" instead of semi finalist. Only 9-12 guys can be top-3/4, but 24 athletes make the semis.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Marlow » Mon Apr 23, 2012 9:18 am

preston wrote:
bushop wrote:tier 1: possible gold medalist

tier 1: Bolt

Cutting the baloney kinda thin, aren't we? There are NO mortal locks.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Mon Apr 23, 2012 9:30 am

As of right now, I would put Bolt Blake Powell and Gay in Tier 1.
Those 4 are the most consistent in terms of winning against all other competition and amongst themselves.

Dix and N.Carter and Lemaitre would probably be Tier 2 since they seem to be the ones always behind the top guys, while always finishing ahead of everyone else.

Then tier 3 would be the likes of everyone else. Frater, Gatlin, Rodgers, Thompson etc.

Bolt is not by himself. He lost in the 100m final, had a few close races during the season and only had the world lead at the end of the season by a mere .02 from #2 Asafa
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby gh » Mon Apr 23, 2012 11:41 am

Until Gay actually races, he's not on any tier.

And until we see Powell in an outdoor 100, he's probably only a tier 3 choice at this point.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Dave » Mon Apr 23, 2012 2:28 pm

I propose a different standard:

Tier 1: Likely OG medalists
Tier 2: The rest of the likely OG finalists
Tier 3: OG finalist long shots.


[OK. this isn't that different, I went back to the early years of this thread and others suggested something similar. That said, I believe this is a pretty good way of looking at the field.]
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby gktrack » Mon Apr 23, 2012 4:05 pm

Based on 2010-2012 legal performances, only nine 100m runners have proven themselves by going sub-10 three or more times over the last 2+ years... a reasonable prerequisite for the top 2 tiers (I added Gatlin for the heck of it, due to lack of 2010 data). This would not be my order, it's just the way the data turned out, but could serve as a guide.

Name (Top 3 Avg) [#of Sub-10's]
Gay (9.79) [7]
Bolt (9.81) [9]
Powell (9.81) [14]
Carter (9.83) [10]
Blake (9.84) [13]
Rodgers (9.92) [5]
Frater (9.93) [4]
Dix (9.93) [3]
Lemaitre (9.94) [7]
Gatlin (9.96) [2]
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 26mi235 » Mon Apr 23, 2012 7:37 pm

For those coming up for one reason or another (Blake, youth; Gatlin, returning), these marks understate their position. One possibility is to use the top two rather than three for such athletes. Since there is no wind adjustment, (easy, take the average of the wind and wind adjust to a constant value, either 0.0 or 1.0) for all jumpers.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby gktrack » Mon Apr 23, 2012 8:16 pm

Well, I agree to some extent, but I'm not speculating on who's "coming up", just providing those who have proven themselves over the past couple years, so interpret the data accordingly... Adjusting for wind, the list looks similar, but as somwehat expected, 4 of the "slower" runners only have a handful of sub-10 wind-adjusted performances between them: Lemaitre [1], Gatlin [0], Frater [1] and Rodgers [2]. So the reduced list, based on the same assumptions but wind-adjusted, is:

Name (Top 3 Avg) [#of Sub-10's]... includes those >2mps, all wind-adjusted
Gay (9.80) [7]
Powell (9.82) [17]
Blake (9.83) [14]
Bolt (9.83) [10]
Carter (9.87) [10]
Dix (9.95) [4]
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby bushop » Sun Jul 14, 2013 11:42 am

Now who's where?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Sun Jul 14, 2013 11:50 am

bushop wrote:Now who's where?

Crap, you should have asked this after Lausanne...not today... but pretending today didn't happen

T1: Bolt - Blake - Gay - Powell -Gatlin
Those 4 generally only lose to each other when fit (may will argue against Powell)

T2: R. Baliey - Rodgers - N. Carter - Lemaitre - Thompson - Martina - Collins?
Once you get below T1 its hard to really decide since to many athletes flip flop many times.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby Tuariki » Sun Jul 14, 2013 11:56 am

With the acceleration of drug busts maybe we will get a kiwi sprinter on to the Tier structure
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby batonless relay » Sun Jul 14, 2013 12:30 pm

For Moscow, accounting for suspensions and injuries:

Tier 1: Bolt
Tier 2: Gatlin
Tier 3: Anyone who's ever broken 10 not named Bolt or Gatlin and is still eligible.
Tier 4: Anyone who's never broken 10, but has broken 10.10, and is still eligible.
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby 26mi235 » Sun Jul 14, 2013 2:21 pm

Two 9.95s within 90 minutes gets no love (albeit, with nice wind). The is also a 9.87 in there worth noting. Will Silmon be able to back down and then come back from a long year?
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby jamal00005 » Sun Jul 14, 2013 2:26 pm

batonless relay wrote:For Moscow, accounting for suspensions and injuries:

Tier 1: Bolt
Tier 2: Gatlin
Tier 3: Anyone who's ever broken 10 not named Bolt or Gatlin and is still eligible.
Tier 4: Anyone who's never broken 10, but has broken 10.10, and is still eligible.

Tier 3 will have to be Vicaut and Collins at this stage
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby batonless relay » Sun Jul 14, 2013 3:01 pm

let me make one more distinction. I'm having SERIOUS doubts about Gabriel Mvumvure 9.98 (1.8) in Montverde, FL. He's tier 4, if that!
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Re: Mens 100m "Classes/Tiers"

Postby ATK » Sun Jul 14, 2013 3:20 pm

26mi235 wrote:Two 9.95s within 90 minutes gets no love (albeit, with nice wind). The is also a 9.87 in there worth noting. Will Silmon be able to back down and then come back from a long year?

Let's see what he can do the rest of the year. Consistency and beating certain people will get Vicaut serious mention.
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