t_monk wrote:Jeter's 10.64 was in 2009. Also, last season she didn't make the impact that I expected her to make. Not that I was expecting her to automatically drop a sub-10.70 but I expected her to touch 10.7x more. She seemed very much more vulnerable last year than I recall her looking since her breakthrough the year prior and this indoor season has also done little to alleviate my doubts concerning what she is capable of this year.
I understand, but last season was an off year for a lot of people. For some people intentionally, i.e. Bolt. So, for some of this sub 11 talk, we're falling back to marks from the 09 season.
Remember, Felix was the 100m US champion last year and LaShauntae Moore was 2nd. Out of nowhere. I can't recall who was 3rd but I remember the times weren't all that fast.
Besides Jeter ran pretty fast last season too, easily sub 11 multiple times. When you said Jeter wouldn't make much of an impact, I thought it was a sub 11 reference. If not, my bad.
There were some windy Sub 11s in Austin this weekend.
I'm not sure on the legal wind conversions so whoever can provide that I'd be interested to see what the times were "worth."
Event 74 Women 100 Meter Dash Invitational ================================================================ Name Year School Finals ================================================================ Section 1 Wind: 3.2 1 Myers, Marshevet SR Adidas 10.90 2 Anderson, Alexandria Unattached 10.91 3 Young, Jessica SR TCU 11.12 4 Lucas, Porscha Saucony 11.14 5 Ahoure, Murielle API 11.26 6 George, Allison TSM 11.49 7 Clarke, Jessica New Era Spri 11.61
Event 20 Women 100 Meter Dash Univ/Coll ================================================================ Name Year School Finals ================================================================ Section 1 Finals Wind: 2.9 1 Tarmoh, Jeneba JR TXAM 10.94 2 Hackett, Semoy JR LSU 10.98 3 Duncan, Kimberlyn SO LSU 11.07 4 Townsend, Tiffany SR Baylor 11.09 5 Levy, Jura FR South Plains 11.10 6 Riggien, Chastity SR Southern Mis 11.13 7 Duncan, Dominique JR TXAM 11.20 8 Kendrick, Stormy SO Clemson 11.29 9 Bolton, Grecia JR Houston 11.48
I'd say it's safe to say both Myers and Anderson will legally hit Sub 11 this year but it remains to be seen how low they'll go. I think Anderson's best chance is early in the season/prior to the European season. She started extremely well in the race on Saturday, which I believe can be attributed to her extensive indoor season but ultimately was nipped at the line. It'll be interesting to see how her races are managed going forward to prevent her from fading later in the year.
Myers started the race slow and seemed to pace herself off of Anderson before dipping at the line. Good early race from both of the ladies.
Not sure what to make of Tarmoh or Hackett's times.
Approximately 0.01 for every 0.2mps of wind. Thus, 3.2 -> 2.0 is 0.06, and down to 0.0 (basic) is 0.16. Similarly 2.9 to 2.0 is 0.05, and to 0 is 0.15. Of course, basic is a tougher standard than wind-legal maximum, but I concur that MM and AA are on the doorstep; Tarmoh is ahead of where I might have thought and Hackett was not on the same portion of my radar as the other three windy sub-11s here.
texas_speed wrote:Section 1 Wind: 3.2 1 Myers, Marshevet SR Adidas 10.90 2 Anderson, Alexandria Unattached 10.91 3 Young, Jessica SR TCU 11.12 4 Lucas, Porscha Saucony 11.14 5 Ahoure, Murielle API 11.26 6 George, Allison TSM 11.49 7 Clarke, Jessica New Era Spri 11.61
Event 20 Women 100 Meter Dash Univ/Coll
Section 1 Finals Wind: 2.9 1 Tarmoh, Jeneba JR TXAM 10.94 2 Hackett, Semoy JR LSU 10.98 3 Duncan, Kimberlyn SO LSU 11.07 4 Townsend, Tiffany SR Baylor 11.09 5 Levy, Jura FR South Plains 11.10 6 Riggien, Chastity SR Southern Mis 11.13 7 Duncan, Dominique JR TXAM 11.20 Not sure what to make of Tarmoh or Hackett's times.
Myers and Anderson definitely look on par to fulfill my prediction. This is the first year in a while I can't really predict the US WC team from a distant. I can usually narrow it down to the top 3/4 persons or at least a clear favorite for the top 2 spots... but not now... It's definitely a toss up...
I believe that Lee ran at the Texas Relays as well, anyone has any results from that meet?
EDIT: Nevermind, I checked her twitter page and she said she didn't run, she moved it backed to the 16th it seems.
Speedster wrote:I'll brave a US team guess and say it will be Jeter, Myers and Williams, adding Anderson to the relay pool with Felix if she makes it through all the rounds of the 200 and 400.
Are Felix and/or Richards doubling at USATF? They both have a bye into the WC, so may choose to just run the 'other' event? Be interesting to see what 100m speed either of those two ladies have with the added strength work they must have done in prep for a double. If too much, does Felix risk her place in the 4x100m, given the depth mentioned above?
Felix has two attributes that make her a good choice for the relay. First, her 100m times are hampered by a slow start, and the relay format diminishes this liability. Second, she is a 200m athlete and as such gets much more practice running hard turns and so is a good candidate for the third leg.
26mi235 wrote:Felix has two attributes that make her a good choice for the relay. First, her 100m times are hampered by a slow start, and the relay format diminishes this liability. Second, she is a 200m athlete and as such gets much more practice running hard turns and so is a good candidate for the third leg.
Agreed - but I was thinking more along the lines of 'might the extra work for the 400m have killed a little speed' - such that if Jeter, Myers, Williams, Lee, Anderson and any others all turn up in close to 11 secs, Felix might struggle to justify herself over one of the other ladies
Secondly - re your comment about Allyson and bend running - interesting - given the 'VCB leg debate' - but I don't recall many cries of 'Allyson should be on 3rd, not 2nd' (which would create a nice little race within a race, were both VCB and Felix to run it) - maybe both USA and JAM have missed tricks here...
jjj: I mentioned those two as pluses -- yes, she has minuses with the 200/400, both in training and in competitive fatigue/timing. As for running the curve, there are a couple other candidates that run curves for a living -- Myers and Lee notable among them, and you only need two curve-runners and AF should not be running the first leg....
I know she was stripped of the medal because of methylhexaneamine but that drug has been downgraded on the list of banned substances now for whatever reason. It is now "non-specified" apparently. Am wondering if she simply got a 3 month suspension due to the medical certificates she provided claiming it was from a nasal decongestant or her ban was decreased because the drug was downgraded...
It wouldn't be prudent if one were not to accept that Shelly certainly by performance [absolutely and relatively] is the one to beat and is looking like the best and hence at this early point; the favourite if she applies herself smartly for the double....and I'm a VCB worshiper who likes seeing an Allyson 200m canter.
This all on the background that Jeter [closest to Shelly in the 1m] was old and has gotten older...not to mentoin VCB who voicably expresses that she has found herself searching for motivation of late.
Since most of the athletes that would run sub-11 are NACAC athletes, and the NACAC season is earlier than all but the Southern Hemisphere, it seems that everyone who has a chance a running beneath the barrier has shown some form this year. Below are the athletes who I think still have a chance. It will be very interesting to see what the girls from GBR do this year. They haven't shown any results but the run-up to the games may present some outsized PB's this year (i'm interested to see what J. Williams will do). And what will the Ukranians do outdoors? Also, I'm gonna continue to stick my neck out and say that no college girls break 11. However, there are quite a few who are in spitting distance (underlined are collegiate).
11.01 1.8 Alexandria Anderson (she needs a breakthough more than a PB; The USA needs a newcomer for the Jamaican development train) 11.03 0.6 English Gardnercollege kid runs 11.03 with negligible wind?! Head says yes but proprietary formula says no 11.05 1.7 Schillonie Calvert I predicted last year that she would be heard from; she waited a year 11.06 1.9 Murielle Ahoure remember her 2009 indoor season...then poof; great to see her back but 1.9w does not give me much hope 11.07 1.9 Sherone Simpson I want to believe she will...but I think she'll fall short. I hope not 11.07 1.9 Kerron Stewart slow recovery from injury but she has plenty of time to run sub-11 11.08 1.0 Ivet Lalova Great to see her back since her broken leg. I think she runs sub-11. (Of course, that 10.77 is as bogus as 10.49 [flyer v. wind]). Plus, I love her belly tattoo! 11.09 Marshevet Myers she will 11.10 0.1 LaKya Brookinssee English Gardner 11.25 -1.6 Jeneba Tarmohsee English Gardner
7-sided wrote:11.03 0.6 English Gardnercollege kid runs 11.03 with negligible wind?! Head says yes but proprietary formula says no
11.10 0.1 LaKya Brookinssee English Gardner 11.25 -1.6 Jeneba Tarmohsee English Gardner
Care to say more here? 11.03/0.6//700m altitude gives room for a legal sea-level sub-11. Tarmoh has more history but 11.25/-1.6 is well above a sub-11 even with a 2.0 wind, while Brookins mark is right on the cusp.
Tarmoh's time doesn't reflect what she's capable of; it would be negligent, based upon knowledge of the top NCAA sprinters, not to include her. But, somewhere in this thread I put forward the theory that college kids generally don't go sub. It worked last year as Okagbare just missed, but it looks like it will be put to the test with Gardner, Brookins and Tarmoh.
Gardner looks most likely but when you factor in that NCAA's is a team sport for Oregon, South Carolina and Tx A&M you can see why it becomes more difficult to run sub-11 (1, 2, 4x1, 4x4). Also, USATF is usually no more than 10 days from NCAA's conclusion so it becomes more difficult to run that sub-11 race when the race you have to run is not your race (meaning: you can't go through your normal progression without feeling stress like you would in a college meet because the "senior" girls will still be in front of you in qualifying; pressing doesn't usually lead to PB's). Anyway, I'm sticking to it.
Thanks -- A little further clarification if you would. If Gardner does take the 'team' rout and holds back from tying to optimize her 100 time in Drake/NCAAs are you saying that she will not really be up for peaking at USATF/WC Trials because it is too soon or too long to hold her peak?
26mi235 wrote:Thanks -- A little further clarification if you would. If Gardner does take the 'team' rout and holds back from tying to optimize her 100 time in Drake/NCAAs are you saying that she will not really be up for peaking at USATF/WC Trials because it is too soon or too long to hold her peak?
I don't worry about the "holding of the peak" for USATF as much as the actual load. It's a bear for college sprinters. It's kind of like when you see a junior sprinter run fast against juniors and then struggle against seniors with similar PB's...the race is different; they're forced to press; everything happens quicker (think rookie QB in NFL). As for the team rout, the "mentality" is to win NCAA's more than it is to PB - especially for Pat Henry's crew. The rounds and races add up.
Lastly, you reminded me that Drake will have NC's. Expect stiff head winds or wind aided races.
t_monk wrote:Kerron Stewart back to sub-11 Meyers back to sub-11 SAFP back to sub-11
SS, Okagabe and Anderson on the bubble at 11.00
My theory is getting crushed! Between Eugene and Clermont, no sub predictions can ever be safe! 7 already with at least 5 more on the bubble. However, 12 women went sub-11 in the most previous Olympic year (7 USA; 5 JAM) so there may be something to texas_speed's contention that the Olympic year produces the spikes. But, now we have a NGR and a TRI below 11 with a BUL threatening! And, the Europeans haven't really started. I think at least 2 Euro women will go sub-11 by seasons end (I know, crazy prediction).