t_monk wrote:I wouldn't be too quick to judge Anderson, she has hardly ran this year so far. I can only think of 2 meets outside the US trials that I remember her competing in. We'll be able to see what she has on offer later in the season when she starts running more frequently
Anderson this year:
100m Date Competition Cnt. Cat. Type Nr. Pl. Result Wind Score 03.04.2010 Austin Clyde Littlefield Texas Relays USA D F 2. 11.26 +2.3 1138 01.05.2010 Kingston Jamaica International JAM D F 4. 11.39 +1.4 1121 05.06.2010 Clermont NTC Stars Invitational USA F H 1 2. 11.05 +2.3 1175 05.06.2010 Clermont NTC Stars Invitational USA F F 1 3. 11.04 +1.8 1180 24.06.2010 Des Moines USA Ch. USA B H 1 1. 11.29 -1.5 1155 25.06.2010 Des Moines USA Ch. USA B SF 2 3. 11.45 -1.7 1129 25.06.2010 Des Moines USA Ch. USA B F 6. 11.44 -2.5 1135 08.07.2010 Lausanne Athletissima SUI GL F 7. 11.42 -0.6 1127
Maybe not so much so. What is the 11.45 -2.5 from Iowa at 0.0 wind? At +1.8 as was at Cleremont? What is the 11.44 -1.7 from Iowa at 0.0, or at +1.8? And what is her prelim from Iowa at 0.0, at +1.8? What are the conversions? How far off from her Cleremont time? For anyone who has run at Drake, it is always windy, they always run the same direction and the headwinds are brutal.
Not as big a difference on the wind-adjusted metric since all of her races since have had negative wind whereas Clermont had 2.3 and 1.8, this is for Anderson, which indicates a differential of 0.10 to 0.20: Raw.. wind points adjT date 11.26 2.3 1138 11.38 03.04.2010 11.39 1.4 1121 11.46 01.05.2010 11.05 2.3 1175 11.17 05.06.2010 11.04 1.8 1180 11.13 05.06.2010 11.29 -1.5 1155 11.22 24.06.2010 11.45 -1.7 1129 11.37 25.06.2010 11.44 -2.5 1135 11.32 25.06.2010 11.42 -0.6 1127 11.39 08.07.2010
I listed the times for Anderson more so because monk and I have had ongoing discussions about her progression as an athlete in general. I guess I should dig up Solomon's 100m times for wind conversion comparison because that's really what I meant in terms of the * next to her name.
At this point of the game, Anderson is really not doing too bad. She could be doing a little better, but for this to be her first season pro on a down year, her times aren't that bad. I just hope she got her head together. That has been her problem in the past. I think once she gets everything together, she will be one of the best female sprinters around.
We could have a different thread about Alex all together. Don't want to derail this thread and its purposes. I'll just say I respectfully and strongly disagree with your assessment. She needs a new coach.
The data from Alex is useful for estimating the difference between the Clermont results and those from other meets (is there a systematic effect). Of course, we should actually look at all of the top-level sprinters in that race to look for patterns (and correct for wind). Also, that race might have had a starter that was 'easy to read' that made it easier to obtain a good, 'short reaction time' start.
texas_speed has done a great job, along with some others, of keeping this thread relevant so I decided to update it with who has and who could. My initial prediction was 6 (though I said later that there might be an additional 2 - one of whom would include Solomon , the other was DFM ) but the list has grown to 7.
The BOLD has gone sub-11, the small will not, and the unbolded blue type are my possible predictions. Interesting addition is the woman from BLR. Huge 11.05 PB, a lot of wind, too...I say she doesn't, but...who knows...EC's Russell is making huge improvements every race and Simpson ran well at Gateshead and Okagbare is bursting with talent. The other inhibitor is going to be that a lot of these women won't be able to find lanes at these late meets.
10.78 0.8 Veronica Campbell-Brown JAM 15/05/1982 1 Eugene, OR 03/07/2010 10.82 0.8 Shelly-Ann Fraser JAM 27/12/1986 2 Eugene, OR 03/07/2010 10.83 0.8 Carmelita Jeter USA 24/11/1979 3 Eugene, OR 03/07/2010 10.84 1.8 Kelly-Ann Baptiste TRI 14/10/1986 1r1 Clermont, FL 05/06/2010 10.90 1.8 Shalonda Solomon USA 19/12/1985 2r1 Clermont, FL 05/06/2010 10.96 1.4 Kerron Stewart JAM 16/04/1984 2 Kingston (NS), JAM 01/05/2010 10.97 1.2 LaShauntea Moore USA 31/07/1983 1 Maringá 30/05/2010 11.02 0.3 Sherone Simpson JAM 12/08/1984 3 Gateshead 10/07/2010 11.03 0.8 Blessing Okagbare NGR 09/10/1988 5 Eugene, OR 03/07/2010 11.04 1.8 Alexandria Anderson USA 28/01/1987 3r1 Clermont, FL 05/06/2010 11.05 1.7 Alena Neumiarzhitskaya BLR 27/07/1980 1 Grodno 26/06/2010 11.08 0.4 Sheri-Ann Brooks JAM 11/02/1983 1 Baie Mahault 01/05/2010 11.11 2.0 Laura Turner GBR 12/08/1982 1r1 La Chaux-de-Fonds 04/07/2010 11.13 2.0 Gabrielle Mayo USA 26/01/1989 1r1 Austin, TX 03/04/2010 11.13 1.4 Marshevet Myers USA 25/09/1984 3 Kingston (NS), JAM 01/05/2010 11.13 1.5 Chandra Sturrup BAH 12/09/1971 2 Ostrava 27/05/2010 11.14 1.2 Carrie Russell JAM 18/10/1990 3h1 Gateshead 10/07/2010
I see Hooker-Myers as still a relevant possibility. She was sidelined by injury but she is running reasonably well so far for someone who has been sidelined by injury for so long. If she remains fit for the rest of the season and runs up until September, she will get a sub-11 I think.
7-sided wrote: 11.14 1.2 Carrie Russell JAM 18/10/1990 3h1 Gateshead 10/07/2010
I hope this is the analytical poster in you talking here and not the wagonist, because, as early as the start of this season, Carrie didn't even register on your radar . By the way, what are your views of Schellonie's sub-ten potential these days (you didn't even mention her in fine print). Anyways, whichever, the reason, I'm glad I participated in getting you to pay keen attention to Carrie.
t_monk wrote:I see Hooker-Myers as still a relevant possibility. She was sidelined by injury but she is running reasonably well so far for someone who has been sidelined by injury for so long. If she remains fit for the rest of the season and runs up until September, she will get a sub-11 I think.
Hmmm... sweet vindication... Am loving it. Glad to see you back Myers!
10.99....
Lets see... Am still waiting for Simpson. Okagbare seems set to break out as well as texas said.
That should just about complete the list for this year I think....
Still don't think Solomon's time from Clermont was legit...nor Baptiste's or Anderson's but at least Baptiste showed she's a solid 10.9x runner. Solomon and Anderson never even remotely approached the 10.9x-11.0x barrier.
Speaking of which...where did Anderson go for the rest of the season?
I know that it seems like it's too early to begin talking about sub-11's; however, Sherone Simpson ran 11.11 before March in 2004 - 6 months before her 20th birthday - (and with the S. Africa, Australia and Jamaica about to begin) I thought we might as well start thinking about it. Please find a very preliminary list of the possible sub-11's this year (btw, I am nixing any collegians. risky, but not really). Now before everyone jumps up and down about the athletes not listed, remember that only 8 women did it last year; I have 11 listed, and 12 is the high for the last 10 years.
USA C. Jeter A. Anderson M. Myers S. Solomon S. Richards A. Felix
JAM VCB S. Fraser S. Simpson K. Stewart
TRI K. Baptiste
1st alternates M. Soumare* C. Russell A. Fedoriva* (doesn't know which event she is 100h, 100, 200?)
Doubt we see Richards or Felix run many if ANY 100s considering they are both eyeing a 2/4 double at WCs. I just don't see where you'd fit them in a big time 100 for them to have the comp necessary to drop such a time.
Funny... I was thinking of resurrecting this topic some time ago but was thinking it was a bit to early. But let me give an early look into who I expect to make the sub-11 list this year.
Jeter (I don't think she will make that much of an impact this year mind you) Lee (Stand by the assertion that she is the most dangerous sprinter the US has) Myers (I have a feeling the LJ is going to interfere with her 100) Williams (Think she is going to have one of her best seasons in years) Anderson (I expected it last year... beating Jeter for the indoor 60m in a new PB especially when her first 60 is the weaker part of her race bodes well for her) SAF (I say she wins the 100 again ) VCB (Joint biggest threat to SAF) Stewart (Along with VCB will be a threat to SAF and her injury last season probably was a blessing in disguise seeing that she got some much needed rest) Simpson (teased sub-11 last year, I see her getting back there this year) C. Russel (This girl will be a force!) Baptist (I would be surprised if she doesn't get there this year) Blessings O (She teased it this year, if she runs the event enough she will eventually get there)
I like Soumare... and her 22.32 in the 200m made her the 3rd fastest of the season last year and bodes well for someone who is generally noted for her 60m.... But she needs to pull her 60m speed and her 200m endurance if she expects to go sub-11. I expect her to reach 11.0x at best, although I would be pleased if she could do more. If Mong can push her though, Soumare will definitely get to 11.0x this season.
If I am to pick Europeans to go sub-11, I am going to choose the Ukrainians Povh and Ryemen
Jeter - something about her looked different yesterday...doesn't look as strong...reserving judgment until I see a couple outdoor races from her but that looked more like the 2008 Jeter than the 09/10 version Lee - not sure what she'll bring to the table this year...injuries always a big concern for her Myers - just dont see the LJ interfering one bit with her 100 to be honest, particularly having added JJK to her coaching team...if anyone knows about managing events at a high level it's her. I follow Myers (and her blogs) closely and I don't think you'll see her jump in many meets over the course of the season...in fact I'd bet she jumps in no more than 4 outdoor meets all year (USAs and WCs included). Also ran a very good 60 in Boston...continues to sharpen the beginning phase of her race. I see her the way you see Muna, monk. Williams - seems to have a renewed vigor and is relatively fresh...can never count her out Anderson - said it in another thread but I see her hitting a 10.97 or so somewhere...she's never run well in Europe and tends to fade at season's end (I blame a "collegiate training program"). I hope I'm wrong but I still see her in that 2nd tier of US athletes Solomon - see her really focusing on the 200 his year SAF - I say she finishes 3rd or 4th at WCs...just a feeling...not based in anything of real substance..yet VCB - some of what she'll do lies in the 1/2 attempt...I haven't looked at the WC sched yet in that regard Stewart - I see Kerron returning in a big way Simpson - not sold on her returning to medal contention status but I can see a sub 11 somewhere C. Russel - not sold on her either Baptiste - unless things have changed, I expect fast early runs and slower later ones Blessings O - depends on where she decides to focus
My waaaaaaayyyyy to early/crazy WC formchart as of 02/28/11: (will change with each major competition and/or any new info) 1-2. Myers/Stewart (picking them as my early gold-silver favorites...not sure on who gets which medal but I feel like these are the two prototypical sprinters that have the most upside if they can stay healthy and consistently start well...basically just not being left for dead out of the blocks...they are my sentimental favorites as well) 3-5. Fraser/VCB/Jeter (Fraser closer to silver than the rest...don't ask me why...I just don't see her reign continuing) **************I see 1-5 being the closest it has been in years************** 6. Williams 7. Simpson 8. Baptiste
t_speed, good point: there may not be enough time/races to attempt a 100m. But, if either does, I expect sub-11.
t_monk, I know that you love Muna Lee, but if you noticed, I don't have her breaking 11. In fact, Muna Lee has only broken 11 in one season: 2008! And, never outside of the USA! (yes, she got a horrid start in Beijing, but...) So, I don't see her near the medals, obviously. I don't know what it is, but I don't see VCB better than bronze...and that's if she medals at all. At the same time, I could easily see her run 10.6x; she just doesn't have that 100m start consistency, to me. Stewart is another obviously capable of 10.6x but she has the immediate acceleration issues, too. She closes great, but coming up short is not a betting trait. She's in the medals unless last years injury issues linger. Myers is a THOROUGHBRED! If she puts it all together expect 10.5x! She may be the only one capable of breaking up the Jamaican sweep. But I don't expect that to happen in Daegu and SAF will have continued her reign.
I will be the first to say that I AM COUNTING LAURYN WILLIAMS OUT. (now she'll probably win. LOL)
One more thing (and it's a note of caution): Where did D. Hill come from in '96? Where did S. Fraser come from in 2008? Who prior to the 2009 season saw Jeter at 10.6x? Athletes resurge and sometimes "come from nowhere"; we have to make allowance for THAT athlete who defies expectations, and as of right now, NONE of us has identified that athlete. Who is THAT athlete?
My crazy, wild sub-11 pick for 2011...J. Williams (GBR) (why? because she will have a Lemaitre type schedule for 2011, imo; close to home and/or select competitions w/ big girls)
t_monk wrote:Jeter (I don't think she will make that much of an impact this year mind you)
Since this is repeated in several of the following posts, I will note that she was ranked #1 in both 2009 and 2010. She has beaten more sprinters more consistently than anyone else in the last two years.
From a European perspective, though this indoor season has been promising so far, with numerous sub 7.2's, I doubt we will see these covert to sub 11 outdoors.
Povh and Ryemyen have been running great but 7.1 does not necessarily mean sub 11. Even a 7.0 doesn't always equate to a summer of sub 11's, as Cooman, Pendereva, Bolikova, Lescheva, Bogovslovskaya, Tabakova, Kravchenko, Raschupkina, Ignatova, Kislova, Kwakye, Paschke and Polyakova will all testify!
If current European leaders Povh, Ryemyen, Soumare or Okparaebo run sub 11, I imagine it'll be a one off and only just under 11. Povh has been mightily explosive and powerful but was nearly run down by her team mate so perhaps won't have the endurance over the full 100m. We'll see. Ryemyen closed her races well and in some ways looks more likley to be the winner over the full 100m. Nothing suprises me from the Ukranian team though, let's not forget it produced Blonska, so if both these women run sub 11 I won't quite be eating my hat, I'll just be muttering to myself.
After her 11.06w run with her stumble at the start, then final in 11.10, Sailer looked like she could potentially go sub 11 this season. She's already got a re-occurance of her back injury though, so may just find the body not strong enough to take the training load needed.
We are due a European under 11 secs; the last time a European broke 11 secs was 2005 with Arron. In 2004 we had 3 europeans under 11 secs, Arron again, Lalova's questionable 10.77 (though she did do 11.00 with -0.4 wind in Athens) and Nesterenko's 4 races in Athens. [post truncated by mods]
7-sided wrote: One more thing (and it's a note of caution): Where did D. Hill come from in '96? Where did S. Fraser come from in 2008? Who prior to the 2009 season saw Jeter at 10.6x? Athletes resurge and sometimes "come from nowhere"; we have to make allowance for THAT athlete who defies expectations, and as of right now, NONE of us has identified that athlete. Who is THAT athlete?
My crazy, wild sub-11 pick for 2011...J. Williams (GBR) (why? because she will have a Lemaitre type schedule for 2011, imo; close to home and/or select competitions w/ big girls)
I submit that the athlete is Alexandria Anderson. Think about it. She was 4th in US champs in '09; ran a blazing 2nd leg at Worlds before the baton mishap (was hurt throughout the '09 European season) Had a major medical issue in '10 and didn't make it all the way back. Now she's healthy again for the first time since June '09. She's run well indoors (7.12) and is known as a closer, not a starter. So when she runs that well in a 60, her 100 is going to be much better than it has been in the past. And much better than 11.01 is not 10.97. It is in the mid 10.80's. And she is consistent when she hits a certain time, so expect her to run in the 10.90 range then break some big one's. Thoughts?
I am 'in between'; if she returns well, I think that 10.97 is conservative for a PR but that 10.8 is a little optimistic given how few reach that level. Since she is still young, 10.8 by 2012 seems more likely, and by then some of the established US stars might be fading, as the 100 is a mean mistress on the body.
I tend not to gravitate toward the ped argument like Gabriella (though he makes some valid points), but I think there are many women who are capable of sub-11. So the possible candidate list could be quite large, but in actuality it is normally just a handful. I think it all comes down to coaching.
One of the things that you will notice is that historically many of the sub-11 women are coached by "pro" coaches (Kersee, Seagrave, Smith, Francis, Braumann, etc) or by college coaches who travel to Europe during the summer. A lot of very talented athletes stall right in that 11.0x area because they don't have a coach who can get them over the 11.00 hump, imo. Also, and this helps to expand the candidate list, for women, age doesn't seem to be an inhibitor. I think the oldest "first time" sub-11 athlete is 10.96! (someone check, I could be wrong) However, the coach of that athlete was ... how shall we say ... extremely dodgy.
Do I think an athlete can "legally" go from 11.3x-11.4 range to sub-11? Unequivocally, Yes! Providing they have the right coach. So, if you want to bet who is most likely to "emerge from nowhere" look for an athlete who has become serious about the sport (Jeter circa fall 2008), and has found an "experienced" coach.
So, to answer a few of the questions. Alex Anderson is so close that it wouldn't be a surprise; she doesn't have to change much, so let's see if Bev can get it done. (now, sub-10.90 and t_speed can never speak ill of Bev again. LOL) LaShauntea Moore scares me precisely because she got injured. Is she doing too much/too little of something that should have kept her healthy? Coaching issue? I hope she does, but for arguments sake (can't pick everyone), I'm saying she won't. I would LOVE to say Torri Edwards, but I have no idea if she is still training.
I'd say it's not an automatic that improving the 60 can improve her overall 100 if the later part of her race suffers as a result of the initial part improving. I still don't know how much you can read into an "altitude" performance as well.
And as I stated in the other thread, it remains to be seen how she'll run beyond the "college season" (i.e. past June and overseas...something she hasn't done well to this point). 7-sided finally got to what I was alluding to as well...part of what puts Alex at a detriment by "not being with a pro coach" is the fact that after USAs, Alex on is on her own for the rest of the summer from the standpoint of Bev not physically being in Europe with her.
I don't see her breaking into the 10.8x's...I still stick by the 10.97...MAYBE 10.95. I think that is more realistic for someone who has never broken 11 seconds with a wind legal time (and to a further extent hasn't run faster than a wind legal 11.18 in almost 20 months). But by all means...if she can dip into the 10.8s I'll gladly eat a full plate of crow. I just don't see that happening this year.
Altitude helps, but the elevation is not that high, and the 60 has a lot of its time run at relatively modest speed modest speed (half the race time to 20m?) and not too much yardage to get that speed increment relative to the 100m where the effect is probably 2.0 - 2.5 times as large.
, the other was DFM 
) but the list has grown to 7. 
)