John G wrote: I think Jodie Williams, even at 18 (19 later this year) is a better bet. With her championship pedigree, if she were an American, we'd have much higher expectations of her.
Higher than we have of others, or higher than the Brits have of her?
Higher expectations than we British have of her.
British fans talk of her as a possible member of the Olympic team and future UK record holder. Were she American, Americans (and ironically Brits as well) would be asking if she is the new Allison Felix and expecting her to do what Felix did in Athens.
If she were an American in college we might be asking if she can make the podium at NCAAs, not the Olympic team. Freeman has hit 11.12, Gardiner 11.03 (with a little help from altitude), and Duncan 11.05. They are FR, SO and JR, so they are not particularly old by comparison with Williams.
SO, what am I missing about Jodie (I do not remember all of what she has done and my impression is that her potential has some nuances beyond raw marks, so excuse my ignorance)?
John G wrote: I think Jodie Williams, even at 18 (19 later this year) is a better bet. With her championship pedigree, if she were an American, we'd have much higher expectations of her.
Higher than we have of others, or higher than the Brits have of her?
Higher expectations than we British have of her.
British fans talk of her as a possible member of the Olympic team and future UK record holder. Were she American, Americans (and ironically Brits as well) would be asking if she is the new Allison Felix and expecting her to do what Felix did in Athens.
If she were an American in college we might be asking if she can make the podium at NCAAs, not the Olympic team. Freeman has hit 11.12, Gardiner 11.03 (with a little help from altitude), and Duncan 11.05. They are FR, SO and JR, so they are not particularly old by comparison with Williams.
SO, what am I missing about Jodie (I do not remember all of what she has done and my impression is that her potential has some nuances beyond raw marks, so excuse my ignorance)?
Actually, it's probably the marks, or in particular one mark: 22.79 at 16. She ranks behind only Jones at that age (if we take out Cheeseborough and Boyle's A-assisted marks) and above Breuer and Felix. That aside, she is lightly trained and lightly raced and physically doesn't seem to fit the image of the 'early-developer'. To me everything about her screams potential.
Jodie runs without any major technical faults and in my view, with natural development and some strength training and she'll get to those times, with the 200m her best chance, she doesn't seem explosive enough for the 100m, but it's early days.
The development of Duncan and Gardner is interesting given their pasts and the incredible improvement we've seen in their college careers is likely to be from a level of training and racing that Williams is no where near.
John G wrote: I think Jodie Williams, even at 18 (19 later this year) is a better bet. With her championship pedigree, if she were an American, we'd have much higher expectations of her.
Higher than we have of others, or higher than the Brits have of her?
Maybe because we have many preps/college frosh, that can compete on Jodie Williams level. No disrepect to Jodie, but we have a lot of youngsters on Jodie Williams. Octavius Freeman & English Gardner could give Jodie W a run for her money.
preston wrote:Jodie Williams has looked great in the past, but right now she looks more like Breen of Australia than Felix. Hopefully she will run her projected trajectory in the near future or it looks like she's headed for a flat spin stall. Schippers...I find it nearly impossible to get there when she's a part-time sprinter. The only other (multi) athlete to do it is Dreschler. Russell looks poised to step up but I wouldn't say the same about Levy. Just a feeling, nothing else..
haha,Dreschler did it when she quitted hep,i quite disagree with you,schippers is brilliant to break 11s even if she do not turn to sprint,let us see what will happen future.
nianchengyu wrote:haha,Dreschler did it when she quitted hep,i quite disagree with you,schippers is brilliant to break 11s even if she do not turn to sprint,let us see what will happen future.
I'm a big fan of Schippers so you don't have to sell me on her talent; however, I don't think it's possible for her to continue to be a heptathlete and run sub-11 (and that's if she ever runs sub-11). sub-11 is about more than just talent; it's about a disciplined race plan and that has to be practiced.
TxHottrack wrote:Maybe because we have many preps/college frosh, that can compete on Jodie Williams level. No disrepect to Jodie, but we have a lot of youngsters on Jodie Williams. Octavius Freeman & English Gardner could give Jodie W a run for her money.
Jodie Williams is a year younger than Freeman and Gardner and last year she was faster than Freeman. At age 18, Gardner was a lot slower than Williams and Freeman was only 0.02s faster. And i don't see any other young americans on the same level as Jodie.
People tend to look 'up and down' for comparisons - faster/slower for the same age group. The should also be looking earlier/later. This is particularly the case when one of the athletes in a comparison got good early. You have to look at the performance growth curve of athletes that got good early, not of athletes the same age.
There are so many examples, especially for girls, where the athlete never gets much better than the early marks. For instance, a while back (pre-TFNews board) the fastest returning 800m girl had not two asterisks (**), denoting that they would be sophomores that year and the mark was made as a freshman, but five (*****), if I recall correctly - she was going into 7th grade (maybe 8th). I never remember seeing that name again, although she might well have populated the list further down in later years.
Now, In Jodie's case, I think we have someone that was very good not because they have been trained intensively for a long time but a possible star. However, I will wait on her until she at least 'walks up to the 11.0 line'.
Yep, in Jodie Williams' case her training progression is being carefully monitored by Mike McFarlane. Weights have been introduced gradually, as well as heavy training. I think us Brits also got excited because she knows how to win.
She's approaching the most difficult time of transition from Junior to Senior ranks, to training full time with a lot of expectation on her shoulders. I have a lot of confidence in her and the team around her. Should the stars align properly we may have three women running 11.1x/low 11.2x this year - Kwakye, Philip and Onuora - and also at sub-23 Oyepitan, Onuora and possibly Adeoye, plus others who can run sub-23 such as Ohuruogu, Freeman if fit and Ennis is capable of such times as well, so she'll have good competition domestically. These may not be earth-shattering times in the US/Jamaica, but the next level for Williams.
Carmelita Jeter 10.81 1.0w Kelly Ann Baptist 10.86 1.0w Allyson Felix 10.92 0.7 Veronica Campbell-Brown 10.94 0.7 Kerron Stewart 10.98 1.0w
Wouldn't surprise me if this was the 100m final finishing order in London, sans Felix who will probably focus on the 200m. Jeter and Baptist seem to run much more complete 100s at the moment with VCB forcing and searching for the line 20m out, which I think is ultimately slowing her down. If she runs through the line she might have a better chance.
I now officially disagree, any sub-11 basic time qualifies, especially since many sub-11s are not sub-11 basic. Another way of saying it is that the sub-11 basic club is harder than the sub-11 club, the club really is not quite worth its salt if you include a 10.99/2.0 and not a 11.00/-1 ...
26mi235 wrote:I now officially disagree, any sub-11 basic time qualifies, especially since many sub-11s are not sub-11 basic. Another way of saying it is that the sub-11 basic club is harder than the sub-11 club, the club really is not quite worth its salt if you include a 10.99/2.0 and not a 11.00/-1 ...
Just following the IAAF list quite frankly... If it doesn't say 10.xx... It doesn't make the list... I'm sure Madison will get there, she has enough chances to get there (heck she is practically there), it's only early May.
One of the premises of the thread is that collegiates hardly run sub-11, well Duncan has already put a dent in that theory and there are probably about 3 others who may do the same before the Olympic trials are over. This could be another banner year for sub-11 sprinting (funny, it doesn't feel that way, though; it just seems like the same elites...).
preston wrote:One of the premises of the thread is that collegiates hardly run sub-11, well Duncan has already put a dent in that theory and there are probably about 3 others who may do the same before the Olympic trials are over. This could be another banner year for sub-11 sprinting (funny, it doesn't feel that way, though; it just seems like the same elites...).
Haven't seen any specific mention of Ashley Collier in here (even though she's likely one of the "3 others" in the quoted post). She ran 11.01 (1.9) at Big 12s, and now easily made it through NCAA prelims. So under the right conditions she could run sub 11 in Des Moines or Eugene (and if not, then within the next couple years).
I wonder if Tatjana Pinto will join the club in the next couple of seasons? She improved her PB to 11.19 recently. She turned 20 in February. She was part of the German junior 4x 1 team that set a European junior record last year, running the anchor.
Gabriella wrote:I wonder if Tatjana Pinto will join the club in the next couple of seasons? She improved her PB to 11.19 recently. She turned 20 in February. She was part of the German junior 4x 1 team that set a European junior record last year, running the anchor.
She's talented, but the wind was 1.7, not that that should be exclusionary but it gives a bit of context because I can't find any 11.2's or 11.3's (again, not that it's necessary). As for the sub-11 club? Possible, but when was the last time Germany developed a sub-11 sprinter that was born in the former West Germany or since the reunification? I don't have faith in German coaching getting her UNDER (not near) 11 seconds. I think she could be sub-11 under NACAC (USA/JAM, etc) coaching though.
preston wrote:She's talented, but the wind was 1.7, not that that should be exclusionary but it gives a bit of context because I can't find any 11.2's or 11.3's (again, not that it's necessary). As for the sub-11 club? Possible, but when was the last time Germany developed a sub-11 sprinter that was born in the former West Germany or since the reunification? I don't have faith in German coaching getting her UNDER (not near) 11 seconds. I think she could be sub-11 under NACAC (USA/JAM, etc) coaching though.
No German woman ever ran below 11 seconds that wasn't born and coached in the former GDR. But then, there is always a first time. But i think if a german rans below 11 seconds this year it might be Verena Sailer. Her 11.10 from Barcelona 2010 with -0.6 wind would probably be worth a time below 11 seconds with good wind. She improved her 60m PB during the winter which certainly suggests she is back in form after missing last year. Regarding Pinto: She is still only 19 (born in July 92) and the 11.19 was the first race of the season. Last year she was injured in the spring and still managed 3rd place at the U20 EC with 11.48s with only two months of training. This weekend she will be running in Switzerland, i think after the second race of the season it will be easier to see what the 11.19 are worth.
preston wrote:As for the sub-11 club? Possible, but when was the last time Germany developed a sub-11 sprinter that was born in the former West Germany or since the reunification? I don't have faith in German coaching getting her UNDER (not near) 11 seconds. I think she could be sub-11 under NACAC (USA/JAM, etc) coaching though.
She is of mixed heritage, whether that makes any difference or not who knows It's a massive improvement this year and she did nail her start, so it'll remain to be seen whether she can match this.
Melanie Paschke and Andrea Philip both came close in the 90's, Paschke running 11.04 (0.6) 11.06, 11.07 and 11.08. Philip ran 11.05 (1.1) and 11.06 (0.6). Had their 11.06's had 1.6 wind instead of 0.6 they'd have been under 11, just to follow on from 26mi235's point.
You are a bit too obsessed with that heritage thing. It's not the reason why Germany isn't producing world class sprinters. It's their arrogant approach to coaching that's limiting their sprint athletes. Also, let's stop the nonsense about wind, please. I am sure that both Paschke and Philip had run in wind-aided races in their careers. Do they even have wind-aided sub-11's? No! So, turning up the wind meter isn't the reason why they didn't do it.
Also, let's stop the nonsense about wind, please. I am sure that both Paschke and Philip had run in wind-aided races in their careers.
That arguments assumes they always were in perfect form when running, which of course is also nonsense. Six years ago Carmelita Jeter could have ran in Mexico City with +5 m/s wind and she still wouldn't have gone below 11 seconds.
You are a bit too obsessed with that heritage thing. It's not the reason why Germany isn't producing world class sprinters. It's their arrogant approach to coaching that's limiting their sprint athletes.
When was the last time a white american woman ran below 11 seconds?
preston wrote:It's not the reason why Germany isn't producing world class sprinters. It's their arrogant approach to coaching that's limiting their sprint athletes.
Eh? Not sure where you get this from.
preston wrote: Also, let's stop the nonsense about wind, please. I am sure that both Paschke and Philip had run in wind-aided races in their careers. Do they even have wind-aided sub-11's? No! So, turning up the wind meter isn't the reason why they didn't do it.
Silly comment. Wind reading is important, as 10.49 shows. When you run 11.06 with a 0.6 wind, it is better than a 10.99 with a 2.0 wind, as 26mi235 has suggested earlier. Yes, for the purpose of compiling a list of sub 11s we go with whatever is deemed legal, but the point of this topic is discussion, and there are a number of women that could have run sub 11 with a more favourable wind, just as some women with 10.99 have been extremely lucky with the wind reading: Damola Osayomi last year with 10.99 and 1.8 wind, Marshevet Hooker with 10.99 and 1.4 wind in 2010. Had Paschke had the 1.8 behind her the day she ran 11.04, she'd have run sub 11...Osayomis and Hookers corrected times are the same as Paschkes (11.1)
Gabs, what is silly is this idea that all you have to do is turn the wind around and you can make times what you want them to. It's nonsense. Both of these women were fixtures in German sprinting for multiple years and even with the benefit of races with considerably more wind they never broke 11, so to ASSUME that all you have to do is turn the wind around, is, to use your word, ridiculous! There are many athletes with PB's in negative wind, should we "correct" for their times as well? Come on, man! I asked a specific questions about Germans, so you can't just start adjusting things on what they could have done when they had multiple chances and could have. Also, if that's the standard -that they could have- then you, and others, have to stop talking about women who haven't based upon their "cultural deprivation". Because we could add a lot more Europeans to the list if that's the case; enough to put a dent in what the "culturally deprived" can't do argument.
norunner wrote:...When was the last time a white american woman ran below 11 seconds?
What does that have to do with anything? A white american woman? You sure you don't want to narrow that down to a white, american, woman, born in North Dakota, who grew up in Grand Forks, and spent summers on a farm, and never had a hamburger ...
preston wrote:What does that have to do with anything? A white american woman? You sure you don't want to narrow that down to a white, american, woman, born in North Dakota, who grew up in Grand Forks, and spent summers on a farm, and never had a hamburger ...
You said heritage has nothing to do with it, it's the german coaching. American coaching is obviously great, so if heritage is not a factor you would expect lots of white american women running below 11 seconds. Yet there never has been one. It's not heritage, it's not coaching, what's left? And instead of avoiding the issues and trying to ridicule any argument you might just try to reply with facts. Tell us why great american sprint coaching has never produced a white woman in the sub 11 club. And please explain to us why german coaching is arrogant. I am sure coaches all over the world would love to find out how to coach their throwers arrogantly to success.
norunner wrote:...Tell us why great american sprint coaching has never produced a white woman in the sub 11 club. And please explain to us why german coaching is arrogant. I am sure coaches all over the world would love to find out how to coach their throwers arrogantly to success.
No, tell us why German coaching has never produced a non-white sub-11 if heritage is the only factor. Are you going to say Pinto is the only non-white German, ever? Oh, that's right, she's mixed heritage! And, explain why if the Germans are so great in coaching throwers that a country with OVER 81 million people is about the same in the discus as a Caribbean country with less than 3 million people? And, why the Finns are so much better in JT? It must be the heritage, right?
preston wrote:No, tell us why German coaching has never produced a non-white sub-11 if heritage is the only factor. Are you going to say Pinto is the only non-white German, ever? Oh, that's right, she's mixed heritage! And, explain why if the Germans are so great in coaching throwers that a country with OVER 81 million people is about the same in the discus as a Caribbean country with less than 3 million people? And, why the Finns are so much better in JT? It must be the heritage, right?
Right, so not only are you not going to actually explain anything you said, but you expect the same from others. And thanks for that discus comment, made me laugh. Either you really don't know anything about track&field or you are trying to be ignorant on purpose. 24 german men threw the discus over 65 meters, compared to one jamaican, and thats about the same to you? In that case i guess St. Kitts is about as good as the US over 100m.
norunner wrote:Right, so not only are you not going to actually explain anything you said, but you expect the same from others. And thanks for that discus comment, made me laugh. Either you really don't know anything about track&field or you are trying to be ignorant on purpose. 24 german men threw the discus over 65 meters, compared to one jamaican, and thats about the same to you? In that case i guess St. Kitts is about as good as the US over 100m.
And, now you deflect. No answer for Finnish JT? OK. In 2011 3 German Men threw the Discus over 64m as did 1 JAM; 4 GER threw it over 62m. In 2012: 3 GER over 65m; 1 JAM over 65m. In 2012: 4 GER over 62m; 3 JAM over 62m. Don't go too far back trying to make your point, though (searching for 24...really?); maybe you can use all of the German women from the GDR who ran sub-11 on yesteryear, too? But, you're right, maybe it's because I know nothing about track and field.
By the way, this is a thread on sub-11. 65+ and 62+ DT hardly qualifies. Which reminds me...how many non-white German women have been coached under 11 seconds?
There being no US women running under 11 seconds because quite frankly they don't want to.
It's like in Kenya where they glorify the longer distances, white US males/females are generally urged to 'move up' due to one reason or another. They said the same about Wariner when he was running the 400, that he should move up to the 800 even when he was dropping world class time. We see it with Reousler (sp off I know) who could be an excellent 400m runner but is being urged to do the 800. And that is just the 400... A white girl running the 100... >_> they will move her up to cross country so fast it will give you whiplash
Let me reply to the javelin question "preston" style: What makes you think finland is so much better? And i am assuming you are excluding women, because then it gets ridiculous. Regarding "Which reminds me...how many non-white German women have been coached under 11 seconds?", black population in the US: about 40mio, black population in germany: about 600 000. And you still havent answer a single one of my questions.
norunner wrote:...black population in the US: about 40mio, black population in germany: about 600 000. And you still havent answer a single one of my questions.
That ~600 000 would mean that Germany has twice the population of the Bahamas which has had 5 women run sub-11. So where are the German "black" sub-11's?
It's a massive improvement this year and she did nail her start, so it'll remain to be seen whether she can match this.
