stallion wrote:Walter Dix's relay leg of 45.6 triggered thoughts of where he might fit in on this list. His 9.93 gets him 1241 points, and his 19.69 earns him 1276 points, so if he could even run a 46.5 open 400, he'd get 1087 points to give him a total of 3604, landing him in 12th place, just ahead of Carl Lewis. If Dix could run a 45.6 open, he'd earn 1143 points, giving him a total of 3660, which would place him 4th, behind only Michael Johnson, Mike Marsh, and Xavier Carter. I only post this to give a hint of Dix's potential versatility, not because I believe the relay split is worth points.
Usain Bolt has a 44.4 split (on US soil) at age 17 so this can be factored into where you think he would be in your list. I only post this to show the folly of the "logic".
stallion wrote:Walter Dix's relay leg of 45.6 triggered thoughts of where he might fit in on this list. His 9.93 gets him 1241 points, and his 19.69 earns him 1276 points, so if he could even run a 46.5 open 400, he'd get 1087 points to give him a total of 3604, landing him in 12th place, just ahead of Carl Lewis. If Dix could run a 45.6 open, he'd earn 1143 points, giving him a total of 3660, which would place him 4th, behind only Michael Johnson, Mike Marsh, and Xavier Carter. I only post this to give a hint of Dix's potential versatility, not because I believe the relay split is worth points.
Usain Bolt has a 44.4 split (on US soil) at age 17 so this can be factored into where you think he would be in your list. I only post this to show the folly of the "logic".
There is no flaw in my logic, as I expressed this about Dix for the sake of discussion, and because he has no 400 mark. Bolt has a 45.28 to his credit, so he ranks 6th on the list. The point was regarding Dix's potential ranking on this list, which is high, and perhaps not worth much in the scheme of things. Bolt's already high on the list, and I suspect he will go higher.
Perhaps this has been discussed somewhere here already, but Usain Bolt is number 2 all time, with 3762...only 55 pts behind Michael Johnson's 3817....
100 9.72 1320
200 19.67 1279
400 45.28 1163
Last year he was at number 6...
I might add that with Xavier Carter improving his 100 pb from 10.09 to 10.00 at the trials, that he has leapfrogged Michael Marsh and is now in 3rd place, behind MJ and UB...
jazzcyclist wrote:Am I the only one who's curious to see what Bolt can do in the 400 right now? I think 45.28 is looking really outdated about now.
With the way he's running now, 45.28 seems like a warm up lap. I hope he grants his coach his wish. Glen Mills has repeatedly stated that Bolt could be one of the best 400 meter runners ever. He made Bolt run the 100m so Bolt should return the favour and train for the 400m for next year's World Champs.
Yep, that:s why I asked on another thread what happens if Bolt runs a 44,4 next year. I know it is easier said than done, but I don:t see a 21,4-21,6 opener before his second turn a huge problem from a guy who will likely run two seconds faster than that in an all-out sprint.
And what if we used JW's 10.46 en-route 200m run at Nationals.
10.46 - 1051
20.19 - 1199
43.45 - 1282
Tot. 3532 not sure where that stand on the list.
If you give him 10.20 (potentially) for 1142 he would have 3623
Of course JW has not really run the 100 like UB has the 400m.
I think the list is comprable to a list consisting of the 200m, 400m , and 500m. Now how would that list change if that was used. The only thing that would not change is that MJ would still be #1.
Powell has increased his total by 95 points -- 3590 to 3685 -- from the last list; Bolt has moved up 199 points -- from 3634 to 3833. If Powell can match 200m PB's with Mike Marsh, he'll stand at 3712, tied with Xavier Carter for third all-time. Carter can keep sole possession of third with a likely improvement over 400m; he'll be hard-pressed to be sub-10,00/sub-45,00 at the same time, but perhaps the first-ever.
Here's a near-certainty (as equal to the certainty that death and taxes shall come upon you): Bolt should be the only man to ever reach 4.000 points. If he never improves in the 100m or 200m, he will have to run 400m in 42,74 to reach that level. If he runs 100m in a 9,55 and 200m in 18,99, he'll have to "only" cross the finish line at 400m in 44,30 to earn 4.000 points. If he ends up just under 44,00 (43,98), he'll need to stop the 100m clock somewhere at/below 9,50 and not have to worry about improving over 200m.
EPelle wrote:Here's a near-certainty (as equal to the certainty that death and taxes shall come upon you): Bolt should be the only man to ever reach 4.000 points. If he never improves in the 100m or 200m, he will have to run 400m in 42,74 to reach that level. If he runs 100m in a 9,55 and 200m in 18,99, he'll have to "only" cross the finish line at 400m in 44,30 to earn 4.000 points. If he ends up just under 44,00 (43,98), he'll need to stop the 100m clock somewhere at/below 9,50 and not have to worry about improving over 200m.
42.74! 9.55! 18.99! Those are video game numbers that you're just nonchalantly throwing around. Bolt may be the best candidate to break the 4000 barrier in the sprints, but I wouldn't call it as certain as death and taxes.
The big, key word there was should. Nonchalantly? No, Bolt's trainer believes Bolt can break 19,00, and his Beijing run was on par with his ability to run 9,5. The 42-second 400m on the other hand, is out there in a world far, far away.
He thinks I can run 200 metres in under 19 seconds and I have every confidence in him.
A skinny Texan believes he has a 42-second run in his legs. A taller guy on a sunny island a couple of time zones away wants to one day break the world record. If the Texan gets there first, the Jamaican will have no choice but to run a 42-second quarter. I don't believe it is within either man's reach, however.
i woudn't be surprised if bolt doesn't bother with the 400 until his '30s
if i were him/team, i'd try to 3-peat the 100/200 wins in london '12 & chicago '16 ( maybe even 4-peat in jo'burg '20 ! )
a 200/400 double is nice, but glory/media is always with the 100/200 one
there is always the risk that training to run 43s might kill off his 100 speed for good & that is not a risk worth taking until he's completey ended all his ambition over 100m
EPelle wrote:A skinny Texan believes he has a 42-second run in his legs. A taller guy on a sunny island a couple of time zones away wants to one day break the world record. If the Texan gets there first, the Jamaican will have no choice but to run a 42-second quarter. I don't believe it is within either man's reach, however.
I'm sorry to nit-pick, but they're actually in the same time zone.
EPelle wrote:A skinny Texan believes he has a 42-second run in his legs. A taller guy on a sunny island a couple of time zones away wants to one day break the world record. If the Texan gets there first, the Jamaican will have no choice but to run a 42-second quarter. I don't believe it is within either man's reach, however.
I'm sorry to nit-pick, but they're actually in the same time zone.
I don't think so. TX is Central (except El Paso) which is UTC-6, while Jamaica is UTC-5. Now, they might have the same clock time when Texas goes on Daylight time, but they are not in the same time zone.
EPelle wrote:A skinny Texan believes he has a 42-second run in his legs. A taller guy on a sunny island a couple of time zones away wants to one day break the world record. If the Texan gets there first, the Jamaican will have no choice but to run a 42-second quarter. I don't believe it is within either man's reach, however.
I'm sorry to nit-pick, but they're actually in the same time zone.
I don't think so. TX is Central (except El Paso) which is UTC-6, while Jamaica is UTC-5. Now, they might have the same clock time when Texas goes on Daylight time, but they are not in the same time zone.
Thats still not a COUPLE of time zones. Thats one time zone.
eldrick wrote:i woudn't be surprised if bolt doesn't bother with the 400 until his '30s
if i were him/team, i'd try to 3-peat the 100/200 wins in london '12 & chicago '16 ( maybe even 4-peat in jo'burg '20 ! )
a 200/400 double is nice, but glory/media is always with the 100/200 one
there is always the risk that training to run 43s might kill off his 100 speed for good & that is not a risk worth taking until he's completey ended all his ambition over 100m
That never happened with Marita Koch, the greatest sprint tripler in history, men or women. She came within 0.02 seconds of holding all 3 records in 1983, the only year she abandoned the 400 for the 100/200. That came after several years of running the 400 as her specialty. If she could combine those events with such spectacular success, why not somebody else, like Bolt?
This happens so often, someone gives a basic and obvious fact that is generally true or true on average. And then someone comes back with a counter example of the one person in 50 years of the sport that contradicts the average. This is provided as strong evidence against the obvious...ugh.
paulthefan wrote:This happens so often, someone gives a basic and obvious fact that is generally true or true on average. And then someone comes back with a counter example of the one person in 50 years of the sport that contradicts the average. This is provided as strong evidence against the obvious...ugh.
But Bolt is certainly not average!
There's no real evidence yet that Bolt can run very fast (WR territory) over 400m. Since he has never devoted any effort to the event, it's certainly reasonable that he can improve a lot. I think the most likely scenario for his future career is a slight improvement (if any) in his 100 and/or 200, and a significant improvement, maybe to the high 43s, in his 400. That would probably put his combo score beyond the reach of anyone else for a long time. I think sub 19 is very unlikely. Sub 43 is possible, but he would really have to go after it for a period of years.
Average or not what he has done says to me I have zero reason to doubt his ability to run 42.xx. As has been said he has yet to devote any real attention to the event, but he has done more towards the 400 than the 100 and we see what happened when he focused on the 100. The man ran 45.3 as a 15 year old. He has run 45.2 this year in February or March.
It is a safe bet to say he has the ability to be a serious quarter miler. But not without effort and some pain. Which is not guaranteed he is willing to do. Doesn't mean he cannot do it. The beauty is he has said he will go after it next year. Woohoo!
eldrick wrote:i woudn't be surprised if bolt doesn't bother with the 400 until his '30s...
He told the BBC in December that he was thinking of 2010 for the 400 (why not? no OG/WC to get in the way)
I agree with both statements. If Bolt wins 100/200 in Berlin he will have a pass there, so he is free to run 400s. If running 400s in 2010 and/or 2011 harms his 100 speed, he can drop 400 in 2012.
He has a win/win situation if he wins another double in 2009.
Smoke wrote:Average or not what he has done says to me I have zero reason to doubt his ability to run 42.xx. As has been said he has yet to devote any real attention to the event, but he has done more towards the 400 than the 100 and we see what happened when he focused on the 100. The man ran 45.3 as a 15 year old. He has run 45.2 this year in February or March. It is a safe bet to say he has the ability to be a serious quarter miler. But not without effort and some pain. Which is not guaranteed he is willing to do. Doesn't mean he cannot do it...
That is an understatement!.. If I had to design the perfect quarter miler, it would be a 6'4" fellow of boltesque proportions... But I never would have dreamed that the greatest 100m man would have turned out to fit in the same frame. That is what makes this sport so exciting, the human body continues to surprise us.
Smoke wrote:The man ran 45.3 as a 15 year old. He has run 45.2 this year in February or March.
Not quite ... he was 16 when he ran 45.35 in 2003, and he ran 45.54 in February this year.
But I agree with your overall point. Bolt can be a beast in the 400m if he wants to. If there is anybody on the scene now who is eventually capable of sub-43, Bolt is the one.
eldrick wrote:i woudn't be surprised if bolt doesn't bother with the 400 until his '30s
if i were him/team, i'd try to 3-peat the 100/200 wins in london '12 & chicago '16 ( maybe even 4-peat in jo'burg '20 ! )
a 200/400 double is nice, but glory/media is always with the 100/200 one
there is always the risk that training to run 43s might kill off his 100 speed for good & that is not a risk worth taking until he's completey ended all his ambition over 100m
That never happened with Marita Koch, the greatest sprint tripler in history, men or women. She came within 0.02 seconds of holding all 3 records in 1983, the only year she abandoned the 400 for the 100/200. That came after several years of running the 400 as her specialty. If she could combine those events with such spectacular success, why not somebody else, like Bolt?
Those are video game numbers that you're just nonchalantly throwing around. Bolt may be the best candidate to break the 4000 barrier in the sprints, but I wouldn't call it as certain as death and taxes.
