Curtis Beach RSr?


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Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby olorin » Sat Nov 02, 2013 2:32 am

I was looking for information regarding Curtis Beach.
Duke official website mention him as part of the team but as RSr
http://www.goduke.com/SportSelect.dbml?%20DB_LANG=C&DB_OEM_ID=4200&SPID=1835&SPSID=22497
Is the "R" stand for red shirting? retired?
Also, does that mean that Beach will continue to practise with Duke but will not compete in the NCAA?
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby DecFan » Sat Nov 02, 2013 4:00 am

He's a redshirt senior. That just means that he's in his fifth year academically, but 4th year of eligibility for competing athletically. He's on the team and plans to compete.
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby eiluke » Sun Nov 03, 2013 10:16 am

From my pov he should be the guy switching to the 400hurdles.
I doubt that he'll ever make a US team for OG or WC in the decathlon. Eaton, Nixon, Scantling, are in his way, just to name a few. But if completely concentrating on the 400 / 400hurdles, he might be able to run below 46.0 / 48.5. Yes no risk to win a medal, but a slight chance at least to qualify for an US team 2015 or 2016.
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby olorin » Sun Nov 03, 2013 9:25 pm

eiluke wrote:From my pov he should be the guy switching to the 400hurdles.
I doubt that he'll ever make a US team for OG or WC in the decathlon. Eaton, Nixon, Scantling, are in his way, just to name a few. But if completely concentrating on the 400 / 400hurdles, he might be able to run below 46.0 / 48.5. Yes no risk to win a medal, but a slight chance at least to qualify for an US team 2015 or 2016.


Couldn't disagree more.
The mistake often done (that I am also guilty of) regarding Beach is to focus on his weak throws, rather than his progression in the other 7 events. Right now Beach is a world class in the seven non-throwing events. To put it in perspective his sum of PBs in the non-throwing events is better than Hardee!

Last season with the injury to his shoulder he was able to improve his sum of PBs by 217 points (not far from Nixon's 249) mostly in the jumps. Even without improving his throws he can probably add 100-200 points to his PBs.

Which bring us to the throws. I do not expect Beach to become even average in the SP and DT (probably high 13' and low 40`). But strength is much less important in the JT and Beach can improve significantly if he will learn how to throw. Eaton progressed from ~53m to 65m in the space of 2.5 years. If Beach will improve to ~60m (from 48 today) then he will add another ~300 points (in the 3 throwing events) to his tally.

If Beach will learn how to throw the Javelin (hope they have someone in Duke to teach him) then a conservative estimate for his PBs (Without major injuries) come Rio is:
10.7, 7.90, 13.80, 2.13, 46.5, 14.0, 40.5, 5.20, 59, 3:59.9 or close to 8,900 points (roughly 8600 points in the decathlon). This will not depose Eaton but can be good enough (probably) to make the American team and finish in the top ten.

BUT his real chances are of course in the Heptathlon in which he is a medal threat. If Eaton will decide to skip an indoor competition (2016?) he may end up with a gold (and probably a fat bonus from his sponsor).
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby decafan » Mon Nov 04, 2013 6:40 am

I couldn't agree more, Olorin. Beach needs to stay the course.
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby eiluke » Mon Nov 04, 2013 9:21 am

Beach has improved many PBs within the recent 12 months and I'm well aware, how good his combined PBs excluding his throws are:
6562 pts (regular results = all time #15)
when considering wind aided results (those that would be regular within the decathlon rules) he'd be alltime top10 with 6653 pts.
Including the throws (and those run-jump results that would be regular within the decathlon rules) he does have cumulated PBs of 8540 pts
10,66 +2,4 / 7,81 +2,3 / 13,07 / 2,11 / 46,72 / 14,42 +0,5 / 39,44 / 5,10 / 48,42 / 3:59,13
I personally doubt further major improvements in: 100m, 1500m and the jumps.
I have to give that I don't have any proof for this expectation, just a feeling based on my track and field experience, that he has peaked here and there.
Having seen him throwing the javelin makes me think that this ain't a question of muscle power, he just can't throw (like Kasyanov, Andreas Rizzi or Jens Schulze, ...).
My expectations if he focuses on the decathlon are: 0.80 meter in the shot put, 3 metres in the discus, 5 metres in the javelin, 0.5 seconds in the 400m dash and 0.3 sec in the high hurdles and just a few other minimal improvements here and there. Cumulated 8800 points are in reach and that could be well enough for 8400 pts in the decathlon.
My point is that even with Eaton already qualified for 2015 Beijing, Beach would have to beat 2 out of Nixon, Hardee, Taiwo or Scantling to make the US-team. Pretty tough challenge.
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby JumboElliott » Mon Nov 04, 2013 1:55 pm

You can't guarantee that any of those people will be healthy. Beach should stay the course.
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby eiluke » Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:17 pm

There is indeed no guarrantee of all those names beeing healthy - but that includes Beach himself as well. The track and field events, with the most danger of missing a major event due to injury are sprint and decathlon. Ask Busemann (waisted career), Schrader (2009, 2011, 2012), Hardee (2013), Dvorak (2000), Clay (following 2008), Macey (never at 100%), Pappas(after 2003) and especially many german talents (Niklaus, Leyckes, Abele) who might have practiced in a wrong way.
The list is endless, in conclusion: preparing for beeing crowned "king of athletes" isn't kindergeburtstag. Eaton had to learn it this season as well.
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby olorin » Mon Nov 04, 2013 3:28 pm

eiluke wrote:I have to give that I don't have any proof for this expectation, just a feeling based on my track and field experience, that he has peaked here and there.

I have been following decathlon closely for almost two decades. The one thing that I found is that this event is even more unpredictable than other T&F events. While of course (and there is no punt intended here) you may be more qualified than me (that mainly follow the results of the athletes) to predict when an athlete peaked - are you sure you are good enough to suggest a career change?

eiluke wrote:Having seen him throwing the javelin makes me think that this ain't a question of muscle power, he just can't throw (like Kasyanov, Andreas Rizzi or Jens Schulze, ...).


The JT is the main difference between your predictions and my conservative one. I always took ~60m as the minimum that a world class decathlete should achieve. If you have the all time list can you post of the top 30 all-time decathletes what is the range of SP, DT and JT (i.e. the best three and the worst three). I would do it myself but I there is this nagging thing called work that will keep me busy until the weekend. (if you can do all ten events I will keep your "photo" next to my bad)

eiluke wrote: Cumulated 8800 points are in reach and that could be well enough for 8400 pts in the decathlon.

For a young decathlete (and Beach will be only 25 in 2015) a gap of 200-300 points between sum of PBs and decathlon PB is more reasonable. So we are looking at ~8500 points.

eiluke wrote:My point is that even with Eaton already qualified for 2015 Beijing, Beach would have to beat 2 out of Nixon, Hardee, Taiwo or Scantling to make the US-team. Pretty tough challenge.

The chances that all four are healthy in good form, will peak in the US trials and will not have a mini-disaster during the competition is very slim. But I agree with you that the way the decathlon is shaped now in the US, it will be very hard to qualify, part of the reason is that Beach will be there.
And finally there is the Heptathlon.
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby decafan » Mon Nov 04, 2013 5:10 pm

eiluke wrote:There is indeed no guarrantee of all those names beeing healthy - but that includes Beach himself as well. The track and field events, with the most danger of missing a major event due to injury are sprint and decathlon. Ask Busemann (waisted career), Schrader (2009, 2011, 2012), Hardee (2013), Dvorak (2000), Clay (following 2008), Macey (never at 100%), Pappas(after 2003) and especially many german talents (Niklaus, Leyckes, Abele) who might have practiced in a wrong way.
The list is endless, in conclusion: preparing for beeing crowned "king of athletes" isn't kindergeburtstag. Eaton had to learn it this season as well.


I'm not sure what your point is. Beach can theoretically make a national team in the decathlon. He cannot make a national team in the 400h. Ever. Period.
And what exactly did Eaton have to learn this season? That even dinged up he can score the best score in the world in 2013, the 3rd best score of his career and the #21 all-time score? Those are tough lessons for old Mr. Eaton. He has been the healthiest decathlon champion I've ever seen. Since winning his first NCAA decathlon title in 2008, he hasn't missed a season due to injury (or any other reason). That streak probably won't go on forever, but people talk about his 2013 season as if it was lost to injury.
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby eiluke » Tue Nov 05, 2013 2:11 am

decafan, of course Eaton could have learned that his 2nd best is actually still enough to win.

But I'm sure that he's kind of scared that he had to learn either that his body is not unbreakable.
He tried to smile and tried to make us believe that that visiting Talence had just been a fun excursion - but this will work inside of him for some time...
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby decafan » Tue Nov 05, 2013 4:30 pm

eiluke wrote:decafan, of course Eaton could have learned that his 2nd best is actually still enough to win.

But I'm sure that he's kind of scared that he had to learn either that his body is not unbreakable.
He tried to smile and tried to make us believe that that visiting Talence had just been a fun excursion - but this will work inside of him for some time...


That was an odd post. How do you know what will or will not work inside of him? I don't think you know him at all. Talence was after his wedding and truly was a vacation for him. BTW, the day after the US championships he told me he felt better than he did before the meet started. Once again he has never had an injury he couldn't successfully push through. If he learned anything from this year, it's that he might just be unbreakable.
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Re: Curtis Beach RSr?

Postby eiluke » Wed Nov 13, 2013 2:35 pm

@decafan: you might be right regarding Curtis Beach, even though there weren't many alltime best results in the world this year, the competition inside the USA is relatively deep.
Though the time I envisioned for him (48.50) is #11 in the world in 2013 the deep in the USA has been impressive. 48.09 are just good enough for 4th place in the national top list - so I have to give that this task probably would not be in reach for Beach.

As for Eaton, yes my thoughts are hypothetic. I guess he might doubt his body, you guess he don't?
From an objective point of view he still dominated the world championships.
From my point of view he did not live up to my (and I suppose probably his) expectations.
His season best in the LJ and the HJ are:
7.73m (to 8.23 in 2012) and
1.93m (to 2.11 in 2011).
The jumps simply did not allow him to reach his own potential in 2013
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